Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC London in England. We have a 13-fight card slate this week with many of the fights expected to end by finish, so it should be a fun weekend.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Vince Morales
Wood, -275; Morales, +220
Wood is coming off nearly an 18-month layoff since we last saw him inside the octagon when he lost a decision to Casey Kenney. Wood is a high-volume striker with a good jab and solid footwork. But he is at his best when he mixes in his grappling as he has five submission victories to his record, and he will have a clear grappling advantage in this matchup over Morales.
Morales is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Louis Smolka in December. Morales is a technical boxer with good power as six of his 11 victories have come by knockout. His weakness has always been that he is too one-dimensional in that he cannot defend takedowns very well and struggles against better grapplers on the mat.
I expect the striking to be competitive with Wood landing more volume but Morales having more power and the possibility of hurting Wood on the feet. However, if Wood takes this fight to the ground, then he will win extended minutes and possibly find a finish on the mat. Wood by submission is the official pick.
Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed
McKenna, -255; Reed, +205
McKenna is coming off a 16-month layoff after winning a decision over Kay Hansen in her UFC debut in November of 2020. She is a young prospect at just 22 years old and seems to be well-rounded. I have concerns with her as she makes her way up the division, but this is a favorable matchup for her against Reed considering her ground game advantage.
Reed is coming off a first-round KO loss to Sijara Eubanks in her UFC debut last July. Reed is a powerful striker but struggles when taken down and continuously puts herself in bad spots on the mat. I think she could be competitive in the striking but if this fight goes to the mat at all then she will be at a disadvantage. I still consider her a live underdog in that she may have a striking advantage and McKenna is not some super-talented wrestler.
McKenna by decision is the official pick but I have no interest backing her at that price.
Mike Grundy vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Grundy, -155; Amirkhani, +135
Grundy is coming off a split-decision loss to Lando Vannata last May and is currently on a two-fight losing skid. Grundy is a talented wrestler who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes. He is typically getting out struck on the feet but always finds a way to get the fight to the mat. He is a capable submission grappler as well with eight of his 12 wins coming by submission.
Amirkhani is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Lerone Murphy in October. Amirkhani is similar to Grundy in that he is constantly looking to take the fight to the mat. I expect this fight to primarily play out on the ground and I favor the submission grappling of Amirkhani. However, Amirkhani’s cardio and durability are a noticeable concern, and I expect Grundy to be able to control him as the fight gets into the later rounds.
Grundy by decision is the official pick and this is a solid fight to target on DraftKings as the winner should score well with how much wrestling and grappling that I am expecting.
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Cody Durden
Mokaev, -350; Durden, +270
Mokaev is making his UFC debut and comes in as a highly touted prospect from Dagestan but fighting out of England. He is an undefeated fighter with just a 6-0 record with four of his wins coming inside the distance. He has the typical Dagestan grappling skills and some vicious ground and pound when he gets on top.
Durden is coming off a decision victory over Qileng Aori in November that snapped a two-fight losing streak. Durden has some solid wrestling and averages four takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I doubt he will be able to out grapple Mokaev in this matchup.
The cardio of Durden is always a concern as well, as he notoriously slows down after one round and if he does that here then he likely gets finished. Mokaev by submission is the official pick.
Molly McCann vs. Luana Carolina
McCann, -130; Carolina, +110
McCann is coming off a decision victory over Ji Yeon Kim in September. She is a high-volume boxer with good forward pressure and will look to mix in the takedowns as well as she averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Carolina is coming off a decision victory over Loopy Godinez, who was fighting up a weight class on short notice in October. She is a high-volume striker as well and will have a seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup. While I expect both women to be landing strikes often, it is McCann that will be pressuring forward and landing the heavier shots which should be enough to win rounds here. She is also the one with the potential to land takedowns as well as Godinez was able to get Carolina down twice in that fight. McCann by decision is the official pick.
Timur Valiev vs. Jack Shore
Valiev, -120; Shore, +100
Valiev is coming off a majority decision over Raoni Barcelos last June. He is a well-rounded prospect with diverse striking and a decent ground game as well. There are some notable holes in his game though. For starters, I feel his grappling is a bit overrated as he does not have the same level of “Dagestani grappling” as his peers. Additionally, his cardio and durability are sizable concerns for me as we have seen him knocked out by Trevin Jones and dropped in his last fight as well.
Shore is coming off a decision victory over Liudivik Sholinian in September. He allegedly fought with a torn bicep in that fight but did not stop him from implementing his usual grinding game plan. Eight of his 15 victories have come by submission, and I expect him to have a grappling edge in this fight especially as it gets into the later rounds.
Valiev will likely be winning the striking exchanges, but I expect Shore to push him up against the fence and grind on him before eventually pulling him to the mat. Shore by decision is the official pick.
Ilia Topuria vs. Jai Herbert
Topuria, -475; Herbert, +350
Topuria is one of the hottest prospects in the fight game right now. He is 11-0 with 10 of his wins coming inside the distance and is coming off back-to-back first-round knockouts in the UFC over Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall. Topuria seems to have all the tools of a legitimate contender in this division as he has crisp boxing with legitimate knockout power on the feet. But he also has a strong ground game and averages 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a black belt in BJJ.
Herbert is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Khama Worthy in October which was his first UFC victory. Herbert is a powerful striker with nine of his 11 victories coming by knockout. However, his durability is a major concern as he has been knocked out twice in his career and hurt or wobbled multiple other times. Additionally, his defensive grappling is a major flaw in his game and Topuria will cut through him quickly if he takes it to the mat.
Topuria by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings.
Nikita Krylov vs. Paul Craig
Krylov, -180; Craig, +155
Krylov is coming off a decision loss to Magomed Ankalaev last February. Krylov is a difficult matchup for most fighters in this division as he is long and rangy and carries a decent pace for this weight class. 26 of his 27 victories have come by finish but the clear issue I have with him in this matchup is that he constantly puts himself in bad spots against strong submission grapplers.
Craig is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Jamahal Hill last June, which was a gruesome arm injury for Hill. Don’t look now but Craig hasn’t lost since 2019 over his last five fights. Craig is a relatively easy fighter to break down in that if he is able to force any grappling exchanges then he is dangerous enough to finish the fight against anyone. I consider him a live underdog in this matchup considering Krylov’s willingness to grapple and I favor Craig in that realm.
Both fighters have upside on DraftKings, and I will have exposure to both sides as I expect the winner to win by finish. But I am siding with the underdog in Craig because I do expect to see a decent amount of grappling in this fight, and I do not trust Kyrlov to stay safe in that scenario. Craig by submission is the official pick.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Pavlovich, -300; Abdurakhimov, +240
Pavlovich is coming off a two-and-a-half-year layoff as we last saw him win by knockout over Maurice Greene in October of 2019. Multiple injuries have kept him out of action for the last couple years, but he will be looking to gain back the momentum he had prior to the layoff. He is 2-1 in the UFC with both wins coming by first-round knockout and 11 of his 14 career wins have come by knockout.
Abdurakhimov is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Chris Daukaus in September. Abdurakhimov is well-rounded for the division, but this is a difficult matchup for him for multiple reasons. First, Pavlovich is going to have an eight-inch reach advantage and will have a clear power advantage on the feet. Additionally, Abdurakhimov turns 41 later this year and has been knocked out four times in his career. He will need to avoid the early storm from Pavlovich and possibly get this fight to the mat. If he can do those things, then he is certainly a live underdog in this matchup.
That said, the most likely outcome is he gets dropped early. Pavlovich by knockout is the official pick but I will some exposure to both sides on DraftKings.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Sato
Nelson, -475; Sato, +350
Nelson is another fighter coming off a sizable layoff as he last fought in September of 2019 when he lost a decision to Gilbert Burns. He has lost three of his last four fights, but the level of competition is among the best that the Welterweight division has to offer. Nelson is a dangerous grappler with seven of his eight wins in the UFC coming by submission. The problem is that his striking is not great, and he typically is not putting a ton of activity out there either, so he is almost always drawing thin to a submission victory.
Fortunately for him, this matchup against Sato is very favorable as Sato is not sound defensively grappling and has been submitted in his last three losses. Sato hits hard so he will have an opportunity to hurt Nelson on the feet, but Nelson has historically been durable, and I expect him to get this fight to the ground quickly. Nelson by submission is the official pick.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Kazula Vargas
Pimblett, -510; Vargas, +375
Pimblett lived up to the hype in his UFC debut when he won by first-round KO over Luigi Vendramini in September.
Pimblett is a dangerous submission grappler and has power on the feet as well. 10 of his 17 career wins have come inside the first round so we know he is looking to get his opponents out of there early. He should have a clear advantage over Vargas wherever the fight goes.
Vargas is coming off a decision victory over Zhu Rong last April, his first UFC victory. I do not rate any part of his skillset very highly and this is clearly a showcase fight for Paddy the Baddy, so I am expecting an early finish. Pimblett by submission is the official pick.
Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker
Allen, -120; Hooker, +100
Allen is coming off a decision victory over Sodiq Yusuff last April. Allen sports an impressive 17-1 record and an eight-fight win streak in the UFC. That said, he has mostly faced lower-level competition outside of his most previous fight and now he takes on Hooker, who will be dropping down to featherweight for this matchup. Allen is a technical kickboxer who is very sound defensively and will mix in takedowns as well. My issue with Allen is the output as he has many rounds that he fails to put a stamp on which worries me as the level of competition rises.
Hooker is coming off a first-round submission loss to Islam Makhachev in October. Outside of the weight cut concerns, I like a lot of what Hooker can do in this matchup. He should be throwing much more volume and mixing in a diverse attack with his strikes and will have a five-inch reach advantage. Additionally, he has always had solid takedown defense which limits Allen’s wrestling potential as well.
Outside of Hooker’s durability concern at the lower weight class, he should be the better minute winner in this matchup. Hooker by decision is the official pick.
Tom Aspinall vs. Alexander Volkov
Aspinall, -130; Volkov, +110
Aspinall is an exciting heavyweight prospect with an 11-2 record and a current seven-fight win streak. He has finished all his opponents in his victories and has never reached the third round in his career. He is a powerful boxer and will mix in some heavy leg kicks as well. He also has a black belt in BJJ although he rarely focuses on his grappling.
Volkov is coming off a decision victory over Marcin Tybura his last time out in October. I cannot help but feel that Aspinall is being a bit too hyped in this matchup as Volkov has only lost to the elite level of the heavyweight division. Volkov will likely have a cardio advantage and is much more proven if the fight does make it out of the first couple rounds. He is a powerful striker as well and I favor him significantly outside of the first round.
For those reasons, I lean with Volkov in the main event. I will have exposure to both sides, as Aspinall has more early finishing upside, but the official pick is Volkov by knockout.
