MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Everyone’s favorite bad guy, Sean Strickland, steps into the octagon to the main event again this week against a new prospect out of Russia, Abus Magomedov. The co-main event features two explosive fighters when Grant Dawson welcomes Damir Ismagulov back from a premature retirement. We also welcome back to the cage longtime vet Kevin Lee, who’s making his debut again after being cut from the UFC.
There are 12 fights on this week’s card, and for this week, I focused on the main card and the fights I like most. Some of the prelims will be fun to watch but could lead to traps and the loss of units that could be used to crush the six-fight main card. There is a lot of talent on this card, and as always, below, I’ve broken down my favorite fighters from my favorite fights and have produced the best bets for each. All odds are from BetMGM.
Strickland vs. Magomedov Odds
Sean Strickland -148, Abus Magomedov +122
Strickland is a fighter’s fighter. Down to earth, doesn’t care what people think of him and says a lot of things that many would think twice before speaking. Strickland is a veteran who has been fighting for the UFC since 2014. He is 26-5 overall and 13-5 in the UFC. Before being in the UFC, he was undefeated for the famed and now-gone King of the Cage promotion. Strickland doesn’t have skills that stand out or make him flashy, but his pressure and willingness to step into fire make him a great fighter. Strickland is the type of fighter that enjoys getting punched in the face, which has made him a fan favorite as of late. He fights behind a sharp jab, which he combos with an overhand right and check hooks. He never takes a back step and utilizes pressure to close the distance and crowd strikers. Against wrestlers, he stops 85% of takedown attempts, but to be fair, in his last five fights, he hasn’t fought any world-class wrestlers. His previous five fights included four strikers plus Hermansson, who should’ve been able to take Strickland down but was telegraphing takedowns from a mile away. It’s what Strickland does best at this point in his career. He takes you off your game and makes you fight his fight. An ugly, slobberknocker-type affair that turns the best into mush.
The difference between Magomedov and the last five opponents for Strickland is that he can wrestle, so if Strickland tries to take away the reach advantage for Magomedov, he will just be putting himself in range for the takedown. Magomedov, at one point, was the No. 1 fighter out of Russia. He was made a mortal when he lost to Louis Taylor. He was knocked out in the first round by a powerful lunging overhand punch. It can happen to anyone, and since then, Abus has won three fights all by finish. Abus has been questioned about his gas tank, but considering he has won 56% of his arguments by knockout, he hasn’t had to rely much on the judges or a gas tank to go the distance. Strickland has only been finished twice in his career, once in 2018 and again last year when he fought Alex Pereira. His gas tank is never an issue, but he sometimes gets gun-shy and hesitant. His last performance against Imavov exemplifies how Strickland can get a good fighter off his game.
Strickland making it out of that fight looking impressive, and Magomedov still being a rookie, are the only reasons he’s the dog here. Sure, he’s been knocked out, but that’s the game you play when you step into a cage with four-ounce gloves. Magomedov is the better fighter, better wrestler, and if he stays within himself and doesn’t chase the finish, he should be able to put the vet away. Strickland is tough, durable, and knows how to win. He hasn’t grown as a fighter, though, there isn’t anything spectacular about his game, and for that reason, I am backing the rookie as the slight underdog. Abus is a rookie in the UFC but not in the world of MMA.
Bet: Abus Magomedov ML +122
Dawson vs. Ismagulov Odds
Grant Dawson -105, Damir Ismagulov -115
The co-main event is an exciting one, as both Ismagulov and Dawson are both very well-rounded, and both have made an impact so far in their careers. Both are exceptional wrestlers, have good stand-ups, and pose a threat to the top of the lightweight division. Both fighters have been in the UFC for under five years and already have made quite a splash. Dawson is undefeated with one draw, and Ismagulov is 5-1, with his only loss coming against another top contender, Arman Tsarukyan. There aren’t many differences in their base, as both fighters are high-level wrestlers/grapplers. The differences start to become evident when you compare the striking of each soldier and notice that Ismagulov is not only the cleaner and more technical striker but also more powerful. Dawson has to grapple to have success, whereas Ismagulov can find success wherever the fight goes. Damir has a 75% takedown defensive average, defends 62% of significant strikes coming his way, and attempts 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dawson protects 40% of takedowns coming his way, averages 3.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defends 45% of significant strikes. Considering the numbers, there aren’t many advantages either fighter has over the other still, when you consider the level of competition for each fighter, that is where you can set them apart. Ismagulov has fought dangerous competition like Guram Kutataladze, Raphael Alves and Thiago Moises. He not only beat those fighters, but he also beat them unanimously and showed that he has a future as a top contender. Dawson, on the other hand, is very good, but the level of his competition has not prepared him for this fight. His toughest competition before this was Jared Gordon, and the four other fighters he’s fought are either cut, or you’ve never heard of them. This one will be a scrap, but when the dust settles, I expect Ismagulov to be on top and possibly find a finish late or win unanimously.
Bet: Damir Ismagulov ML -115 | Ismagulov by KO/TKO or decision -105
Morales vs. Griffin Odds
Michael Morales -250, Max Griffin +200
The young Ecuadorian phenom Morales steps back into the cage to face perhaps not his most challenging test, considering he’s taken out Trevin Giles already, but for sure, his most durable opponent, Griffin. Morales fights with confidence and flow and never seems to lose his cool, no matter the situation. The 24-year-old debuted on the Contender Series, and every fight since has found finishes by knockout. In his last fight, he was pushed the most he’s been tested in his young career when Adam Fugitt took three hard-fought rounds. Fugitt would eventually fold to Morales’ power, but the young 24-year-old came out of that with a lesson to hopefully work on his gas tank for the later rounds. Morales has not been stung in his fights and shows a firm chin. He’s based in judo, Brazilian jiujitsu and karate, and his parents are lifelong martial artists. It’s always tricky when you’re backing an undefeated fighter; you know, eventually, they can lose, and anything can happen in a sport that uses next to nothing on the fighter’s hands. Still, I don’t think Griffin can match the young fighter skill for skill, and while he does hit very hard, Griffin will have to drag Morales into deep waters and test the rookie’s gas tank. The first round is a big round for Morales, he’s finished seven fights in the first round, and the impact he leaves when he connects is very evident. Per the numbers, Griffin averages 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbs 3.87 significant strikes per 15 minutes, and attempts nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes. Griffin also is at a disadvantage by an inch in height and three inches in reach. Griffin has only been stopped once in his professional career, and it was at the hands of Colby Covington back in 2016 in his UFC debut. Griffin is 7-7 in the UFC, and since his debut, he hasn’t been stopped and has faced tough competition from Thiago Alves, Alex Morono, Alex Oliveira and Neil Magny. His best attributes are his power, athleticism and durability. The concern for Griffin could be his gas tank which has been known to slow down after two rounds. Morales could find a finish at any moment in the fight, but considering the durability of a Griffin and Morales not wanting to gas out and learning from his last fight, if the finish comes, it’ll be in the third round.
Bet: Morales vs. Griffin fight goes the distance -115 | Morales in Round 3 or decision +130
Bonfim vs. Saint-Denis Odds
Ismael Bonfim -340, Benoit Saint-Denis +250
Another explosive matchup on the main card features Saint-Denis and UFC rookie Bonfim, who is fresh off a first-round finish in his debut against Terrance McKinney. Both fighters have high finishing rates. Bonfim has been a pro since 2011, so even though he’s making his debut in the UFC recently, he has been fighting top talent on the regional scene for some time now. He’s 19-3 overall as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. He has nine wins by knockout (47%), four wins by submission (21%), and six wins by decision (32%). Interestingly, Bonfim has had all of his losses come by submission, and he’s up against a fighter in Saint-Denis who has won 80% of his fights by submission. Saint-Denis is a threat in all departments; he hits hard and is a grappling ace. His issues arise when he brawls and absorbs nearly triple the significant strikes he throws. Saint-Denis is sometimes too tough for his good, and so far, it has served him well, as he’s never been finished. Saint-Denis also has a height (2 inches) and reach (2 inches) advantage, but it should still be a competitive fight because Bonfim, although a rookie, is very skilled in all departments, and if Saint-Denis can’t take him down, then it could lead to a brawl that ends poorly for him. I could see a finish in this fight, but I expected it to be late. Both fighters average over seven minutes of fight time, and for that reason, I’m going to bet the fight to go over one and a half rounds. Saint-Denis may be reckless, but he’s tough enough to fight for the over. I will also sprinkle on a Bonfim finish in the third round at +650. I’m also going to sprinkle on Saint Denis best method of victory, which is by sub at +600.
Bet: Saint-Denis vs. Bonfim over 1.5 rounds -175 | Bonfim in Round 3 or decision +140
Ruziboev vs. Ferreira Odds
Nursultan Ruziboev +180, Brunno Ferreira -220
Ferreira and Ruziboev kick off the main card. Both are rookies in the UFC and want to make a statement in their first year with the promotion. Ferreira is 10-0 overall as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC and 2-0 if you count his fight on the Contender Series. Ferreira has never been past the second round in any of his professional fights. He has seven wins by knockouts and three by submission. Ferreira fights like he’s shot out of a cannon, and the grappling sensation and debutant Ruziboev will meet that explosive aggression. Ruziboev is making his debut with the UFC but has been fighting since 2014 as a pro for promotions like ACB, WEF and a couple of other promotions out of Russia. His background is in kickboxing and wrestling, and at 34-8-2, Ruziboev has the experience, but is it enough to match the high-level experience in the UFC? Another huge advantage for Ruziboev is his height (7 inches) and reach (4 inches). The problem for Ruziboev is that he’s fighting a wrecking ball, so fighting on the outside could be problematic because Bruno will be closing the distance fast and often trying to find the knockout. It’s always tough to gauge how good a fighter is when most of their career has been on the regional scene. Why does he have nearly 50 fights, and only now he’s in the UFC? Did he pad his record? I’m not sure, but I will ride with the proven commodity who creates car crashes and can finish the fight anywhere this fight goes.
Bet: Bruno Ferreira by KO/TKO or decision -165
