Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This week, the menu calls for eggs with your violence, as the UFC heads go to Charlotte for an early morning/afternoon card headlined by Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida. Both heavyweights will be looking to make a statement with a finish, so I don’t anticipate the main event to go five rounds, but I expect it to be filled with fireworks for as long as it lasts.
In the co-main event, long-time vet and broadcaster Anthony Smith takes on the always fun and dangerous Johnny Walker. If Smith loses, we could see him retire, as that would make it two losses in a row for him. The UFC gave the fans a treat this week and didn’t have them wait until the evening for some fights. There are 12 fights on the docket this week, and below I’ve picked out my favorite fights and have given you guys a best bet for each. As always, all odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Almeida vs. Rozenstruik Odds
Jailton Almeida -550; Jairzinho Rozenstruik +390
Not many fighters are lining up to fight Jailton Almeida. He made his debut on the Contender Series in 2021, and since making his official debut in 2022, he has won every fight by stoppage and has yet to reach a third round. Almeida comes from a long line of boxers but utilizes his wrestling and high-level Jiujitsu to get the job done. He only fought twice as a light heavyweight — after finding success there, he moved up to heavyweight to help with the weight cut and give him an advantage against the much bigger fighters. Almeida is an NFL linebacker in terms of athleticism, and no one can stop his pressure once he gets rolling. Almeida averages just over five minutes of fight time, 4.19 significant strikes landed per minute, and nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has been with the UFC since 2019; he’s an over-patient striker who carries dynamite in his hands. Rozenstruik came to the UFC from the legendary Rizin promotion, and his style has led to 92% of his wins coming by knockout. Rozenstruik carries power till the last second of a fight, so for him to have success in this fight, he is going to have to survive an onslaught of attacks from Almeida in hopes of dragging him into deep waters. Almeida is a specimen of muscle and high energy, and eventually, he will be tested. He may have trouble bringing biggie boy down at first, but finally, I expect this to be regular business for Almeida and for him to find a finish before the third round.
Bet: Jailton Almeida to win by submission -105/Almeida to win in Rounds 1,2 or 3 -200 (Parlay Piece)
Smith vs. Walker Odds
Anthony Smith -110; Johnny Walker -110
The co-main event between Walker and Smith should be exciting for as long as it lasts. Smith has been in the UFC since 2013, and over half the fights on his resume have been main-event fights. At one point, he was considered the guy to beat Jon Jones. Now, with one foot in the commentary booth and one foot in the octagon, it could mean that his career is nearing the end. Before his last fight against Ankalaev, Smith was on a three-fight win streak and looking like he would be making another run for the title. An injury in that fight snapped the win streak, and now he has a dangerous battle against the powerful and unorthodox Walker. Smith is very well-rounded and brings to the cage an arsenal of heavy leg kicks, a good stiff jab and jiujitsu that helps if the fight hits the ground. Smith averages just over nine minutes of fight time, three significant strikes landed per minute, and defended 48% of takedowns. My only issue with Smith and why I think he loses this coin flip is because of the power difference, the difference in reach where Walker has six inches of advantage and the wear and tear on Smith. I’m not sure he’s going to do well after he gets rocked in this fight. Walker is unpredictable, and that unpredictability makes him dangerous for Smith. He could end the contest with a kick, elbow, spinning back fist, or in the middle of a takedown where he lands elbows while you try and single-leg him as he did to Ion Cutelaba. Anthony Smith deserves respect because of his resume, but this is like watching Jordan come back and play for the Washington Wizards. Smith is going to look healthy and even do well as he did on his recent win streak, but if he gets stopped in this fight, I suspect that he’ll be retiring soon after. My bet is on Walker to win and find a finish.
Bet: Johnny Walker ML -110
Rodriguez vs. Garry Odds
Daniel Rodriguez +235; Ian Machado Garry -300
Before we reach the co-main and main event, we have a highly anticipated fight between “Drod” Rodriguez and “The Future” Garry. Garry is coming off a recent win over Song Kenan two weeks ago, while Rodriguez was coming off a loss to Neil Magny six months ago. This is a clash of old school vs. the new school fighter style. Rodriguez brings an anytime-anywhere mentality, while Garry approaches the fight game as a sport that can fight anywhere the fight goes. Garry is also undefeated, which makes every fight he steps into pressure-filled to maintain the zero in the loss column. Rodriguez has been fighting in the UFC since 2020 but debuted in front of Dana White in 2019 on the Contender Series. Rodriguez is well-rounded but fights with a brawler mentality, and it’s why most of his fights end by knockout or are all-out wars.
Many believe this will be the toughest test for Garry, and I have to disagree. Garry is not all hype and has shown the ability to get rocked, compose himself, and fight through adversity for a win. It’s important to note because, against Rodriguez, there may be a moment where Garry gets wobbled or rocked if he’s not careful. The same can be said for Rodriguez, who tended to brawl and fight in a phone booth. Drod throws beautiful combos but mainly on the counterattack. If he wants to win this fight, he will have to be first, and that is where I think the problem lies for Rodriguez. Both fighters are similar in height, reach, and output, but where they differ is in accuracy and variety of attacks — two categories Garry is better in, and it will help him make a difference in this bout. From a betting perspective, I will take Gary to win in Round 3 or by decision. Both guys are coming out measured and not going for home runs early. Both fighters average over 12 minutes of fight time, so if there is a finish, it happens late or it goes to the judges.
Bet: Ian Garry to win in Round 3 or by decision -105/Garry by decision +125
Ulberg vs. Potieria Odds
Carlos Ulberg -475; Ihor Potieria +320
Another bout that will bring fireworks is between “Black Jag” Ulberg and “The Duelist” Potieria. Ulberg debuted in 2020 on the Contender Series and won by knockout. Similarly, Potieria debuted a year later, in 2021, and won by knockout. Ulberg is a world-class kickboxer that possesses dynamite in his hands. He fights out of the world-famous city kickboxing gym, and in four UFC fights, he has only been to one decision. Ulberg averages six minutes of fight time, 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute and has a 100% takedown defense. Potieria is not very different; he is about the same height as Ulberg, averages five minutes of fight time, and has knockout power. Potieria doesn’t have as high an output as Ulberg and averages 4.26 significant strikes landed per minute while defending a mere 33% of takedowns coming his way. You may also make an argument that because Ihor is 19-3, he has more experience fighting, but the fact of the matter is that his regional scene competition was terrible. Like boxers who pad their records to garner momentum, Ihor did the same. Ulberg may only be 7-1 as an MMA fighter, but his experience as a kickboxer and his training room are why he will put Ihor away.
Bet: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO in Round 1 +145/Carlos Ulberg in Rounds 1 or 2 -170
Morono vs. Means Odds
Alex Morono -210; Tim Means +180
Kicking off the main card in Charlotte are “The Dirty Bird” Means and “The Great White” Morono. Both fighters are coming off losses and looking to return to the win column after this weekend. Means has been in the UFC since 2012, and along his journey, he has fought the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Diego Lima, Alex Oliveira, Belal Muhammad and Daniel Rodriguez. Some of the fighters he fought in their debut fights are well known today. It shows just how long he has been with the ufc considering that he is still fighting, and Jorge Masvidal just retired after a 20-year career. At 39, this may be his last ride, but after losing a split decision to Max Griffin, the only thing the dirty bird seems to be lacking is a durable chin because heart he does not lack. Means has a good boxing background and a polished jab that he utilizes to keep his opponents at a distance. He averages 4.91 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has a three-inch reach and height advantage in this fight. He could do well using his jab and mixing in the takedowns against Morono, who doesn’t have knockout power and also doesn’t have much variety in his arsenal. The best way to describe Morono is the same way you describe NBA superstar Tim Duncan — “Mr. Fundamental.” He does all of the little things well and consistently. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but sometimes he seems to hesitate, and it can cost him rounds and fights. Morono is coming off a knockout loss in a fight he took on short notice. He has been stopped twice in his career, and if there is any flaw in his game outside lack of output, it’s his chin. Morono absorbs 4.09 significant strikes per minute, which could be higher if he doesn’t move well against the reach of Means. From a betting perspective, the -220 line on Morono is a bit inflated, and I think it should be closer. Tim Means has more experience, and Morono doesn’t present a challenge Means hasn’t already seen. I will take a shot on the Dog as he should do well in this fight, Alex may start hot, but once Means hurts Alex with a jab or counter hook. I can see the complexion of the fight changing, and Tim means grinding out a victory.
Bet: Tim Means ML +180
Prelims
Battle vs. Green Odds
Bryan Battle +110; Gabe Green -135
Battle and Green take to the octagon in the night’s second fight. Both prospects are on the rise and are still learning on the job. Gabe debuted in 2020 and showed promise with a well-rounded style blending boxing and wrestling. He averages 13 minutes of fight time, 6.20 significant strikes landed per minute and attempts 0.83 takedowns per fifteen minutes. While Green can wrestle, in his fights, he tends to strike more often and look for the knockout punch. He reached his ceiling with fighters like Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez but seemed to do well against the rising prospects. Battle is an exciting prospect who now calls the welterweight division home. Since joining, he notched a win over Takashi Sato by KO and lost a grinder to Rinat Fakhretdinov. His most recent loss showed him that he still had much to learn, and in this fight against Green, I expect him to take the path of the least resistance to try and get a win. Battle is the bigger fighter and has a four-inch reach advantage. He did have issues with being hittable, but he makes up for it by being durable, and if someone needs to worry about getting hit, it’s Green who absorbs nearly seven significant strikes per minute. I will take a shot on the slight underdog Bryan Battle and even sprinkle on the sub-prop, as I think takedowns and ground control time will get him the win.
Bet: Bryan Battle ML +110
Levy vs. Rodriguez Odds
Natan Levy -225; Pete Rodriguez +190
This fight should be fun for as long as it lasts. Levy has never been in a boring fight, and against Rodriguez, who averages less than three minutes of fight time, I don’t expect this fight to be boring or leave the first round. Levy is the faster, more muscular and more athletic fighter in this matchup, but his gas tank has been questionable in the past when he can’t find a finish. Still, Levy has gutted out his last few wins, and even though it may not be pretty, I expect him to find a victory in this fight as well. Levy averages 14 minutes of fight time, 4.01 significant strikes landed per minute, and nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes. Pete Rodriguez has power and a good boxing base, but he has never fought this caliber of athlete, and I expect it to be a rude awakening for him. If Rodriguez can’t find the knockout punch, I can only see him succumbing to the pressure of Levy. Levy wins inside two rounds and teaches Rodriguez about the levels that exist in this game.
Bet: Levy in Rounds 1 or 2 +115
