Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
FC is back in Vegas for another action-packed card!
The card has lost some fighters due to injury, but late replacements all of the fights are ready to go. The main event is headlined by Ricky Simon and Song Yadong, two of the most explosive bantamweights in the UFC today. Song Ya Dong is coming off a stoppage loss against Cory Sandhagen. However, that stoppage was due to a cut and not by knockout or submission. Song will certainly be motivated to get back into the win column. Ricky Simon is currently on a five-fight win streak and is coming off a dominant performance against another top contender, Jack Shore. Both fighters are high-level athletes, which should translate to fireworks for this main event.
In the co-main event, Caio Borralho welcomes UFC veteran and former light heavyweight Michal Oleksiejczuk. Both dithers are surging and currently on solid winning streaks. Michal looks to continue his run of knockouts, while the jiujitsu nerd is looking for his first finish on the big stage. There are eleven fights on the weekend docket, and as always, I will break down my favorite fights and produce a best bet for each. All bets and odds mentioned below are on the BetMGM sportsbook app. Best of luck, and always remember to have fun and gamble responsibly.
Main Card
Song vs Simon Odds
Yadong Song -105, Ricky Simon -115
At the beginning of the year, there were three fights I looked forward to the most—Leon vs Usman, Izzy vs Periera, and Ricky Simon vs Song Yadong. The matchmakers did an outstanding job with this main event. Simon is currently on a five-fight win streak and 8-2 overall in the UFC. Song is 4-1 in his last five fight, and 8-2 overall in his career. Song is coming off a doctor stoppage loss to Corey Sandhagen in what would’ve been his first five-round main event. It was interesting to note that the deeper the waters got for song, the less volume he produced, but his chin and power never changed. He was on his way to losing the fight on the scorecards, which opened him up to counters and elbows from Sandhagen.
The perfect word to describe Song is explosive. Rarely do you see him throw single strikes or take a back step. Song is a pressure fighter with the athleticism and power of an NFL cornerback. He moves well, and he only needs one clean shot to put the lights out. Song averages 4.55 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.93 significant strikes absorbed per minute, and defends 71% of takedowns coming his way. He also averages nearly eleven minutes of fight time which indicates that while he is aggressive, he is also calculated. Simon has a similar skill set and, like song, is very powerful, explosive, and dynamic. The most significant difference comes in the takedown department. Simon averages nearly seven take-downs per fifteen minutes while defending 75% of takedowns coming his way. Song doesn’t attempt many takedowns, but the pressure Simon applies is relentless, and I have a hard time seeing Song defending all of the takedowns coming his way the longer this fight goes. Both of these guys have only been stopped once in the ufc, and after this weekend will be one step closer to a title shot. I am going to side with Simon in this matchup. Song likes to fight in a phone booth and throws fight-ending combinations, but it will be during those exchanges that Simon will level change and take Song down, even if for a moment. The takedowns will be the difference in a fight I see going into the later rounds tied. I can see Ricky winning by a late finish or split decision.
Bet: Ricky Simon ML -115
Borralho vs Oleksiejczuk Odds
Caio Borralho -375, Michal Oleksijczuk +280
The co-main event features a former light heavyweight contender Michal Oleksiejczuk, who steps down to the middleweight division to welcome a rising star in the UFC, Caio Borralho. Caio debuted on the Contender series in 2021 as a slight underdog against Aaron Jeffery. He won by unanimous decision and wasn’t granted a contract initially. He would have to make another appearance on the contender, taking on Jesse Murray. He would find a finish in the first round and show that along with his dominant wrestling, he could also hunt for finishes. Caio is currently on a three-fight win streak and, since his debut, has beaten the likes of Omargadzhiev, Petrosyan, and Muradov. Caio is battled tested so far in his young UFC career, and similar to his first attempt on the contender series, he has yet to prove he can finish in the UFC. I believe this fight against Oleksiejczuk will be his best chance for a finish. Michal has been with the UFC since 2017 and began his career in the light heavyweight division. He is 6-3 in the UFC and has only been to two decisions so far. He is an aggressive striker who makes hay by outlasting his opponents and creating chaotic situations that usually lead to a knockout. Still, his one weakness comes from his takedown defense and the ability to stand up once he’s taken down.
Michal has a 43% takedown defense against a fighter who centers his game around grappling. Michal could be in for a long night or short if he taps to submission as he did against Jimmy Crute. Caio averages 2.23 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and if he wants to stay out of danger and out of brawls, he will take the path of least resistance and grapple. 60% of Michal’s losses have come by way of submission, and that is alarming against a fighter who trained with Damien Maia for seven years and is a jiujitsu black belt as well. I am going to place Caio in a parlay this weekend and also bet for Caio to win by ko/Tko or sub. He has power and can end the fight on the ground by knockout or submission. I think we see Caio get his first finish on the big stage and Michal get his first loss in a new division.
Bet: Caio Borralho by ko/Tko or sub -120 / Caio Borralho ML -375 *Parlay Piece*
Viera vs Brundage Odds
Rodolfo Viera -240, Cody Brundage +195
Rodolfo Viera has been considered a future champion from the moment he stepped into the Octagon. The Brazilian Jiujitsu Legend transitioned into MMA in 2018, and before getting to the ufc, he fought for promotions in Russia. When Fighting someone like Viera, you can expect a lot of power from his strikes and an average of 3.90 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Rodolfo is a specialist, similar to Damien Maia and other great grapplers before him. Once on the ground, he doesn’t need many opportunities to close the show, and against another grappler in Cody Brundage, the ground will be the path to victory. Brundage is similar to Viera in that he also is a specialist, but if a different cloth. Brundage is a former D1 college wrestler, but instead of hunting submissions, he usually takes his opponents down to create damage. Unlucky for Brundage, the damage he makes will have to be on the feet because if he decides to take Viera down, it can lead to a quick finish. Cody is athletic, hits hard, and moves well, but his game usually works because he can out-grind his opponents and punish them on the ground. Brundage can drag Viera into deep waters in hopes of him gassing out. But after Viera’s matchup with Anthony Hernandez, I’m sure he has learned his lesson about conserving energy. Viera was all about finishing Hernandez and applied so much pressure that he tired himself out and, as a result, submitted himself. Cody is a live dog, only if he can keep this fight standing because while Viera is great on the ground, his stand-up still leaves much to be desired and can leave him exposed. Still, the path to victory for Brundage is difficult, and he will have to survive an onslaught of submission attempts early and often in this fight. I’ll take the “Black Belt Hunter” to win and possibly find a submission win in the first or second round.
Bet: Rodolfo Viera by KO/TKO or submission -145 / Rodolfo Viera ML -240 *Parlay Piece*
Erosa vs Padilla Odds
Julian Erosa -140, Fernando Padilla +119
They often say, “third time the charm.” That seems to be the case for Julian Erosa, as he makes another walk this weekend to test the new UFC product, Francisco Padilla. Erosa has made two UFC runs, once by way of the Contender series and the other by way of the Ultimate Fighter show. This current Ufc Run was granted by the Pandemic and Erosa’s willingness to step up on short notice. Since returning in 2020, Juicy Jay is 5-2 with four wins coming by way of finish. Erosa has an aggressive style with enough defense not to get knocked out but occasionally will be sent to the shadow realm for risking too much. In this matchup, he’s going up against an opponent who operates at a distance with his reach. Padilla does have considerable power but no experience against high-level opponents. Once this fight gets out of the first round, Padilla should begin to fade, as he’s done in many fights in the past. This will leave an opening for Erosa to melt Padilla under pressure and make this debut a rude awakening for the rookie. Still with gas tank issues, Padilla is challenging and has never been stopped in his career, so while he may lack energy in the later rounds, he will not lack heart. Therefore, I will side with Erosa, who has more experience and should win the war of attrition and come out on top by a late finish or decision. Erosa averages nearly nine minutes of fight time, and his best win condition is by sub as he wins 43% of fights that way.
Bet: Julian Erosa by sub or Dec. +110
De Lima vs Cortes-Acosta Odds
Marcos Rogerio De Lima -190, Waldo Cortes-Acosta +154
The heavyweight division is never that difficult to break down. You can always expect the fighters to be big, powerful, and in some cases, Athletic enough to move like a lightweight. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is that type of athlete. The former MLB prospect is athletic and moves gracefully in the octagon, but this matchup again De Lima may be too much too soon. Cortes-Acosta has won so far in the UFC based on his pressure and ability to outlast his bigger, heavier Opponents. Acosta will inevitably hit a wall at his level as his Power on the regional scene hasn’t translated into the ufc, which can be a problem against a complete fighter like De Lima. This fight should be over quickly as De Lima should be able to make short work of the rookie as he did to Legend Andrei Arlovski. De Lima will take Cortes down and expose the hole in his game that past opponents have not taken advantage of. De Lima by KO/TKO or submission barring he gets knocked out by a wild pitch from Cortes-Acosta.
Bet: Marcos Rogerio De Lima by KO/TKO or sub +115
Quinlan vs Waters Odds
Josh Quinlan -185, Trey Waters +155
Kicking off the main card are two new welterweight prospects with power. Trey Waters is a tall welterweight, standing 6-foot-5, but hasn’t put it all together at the highest level. When he made his debut on the contender last year, his faced his most difficult opponent and was finished in the first round. Waters doesn’t manage distance well, which will be dangerous against Josh Quinlan. Waters has yet to get out of the first round, and Quinlan’s two UFC fights have totaled less than two minutes of fight time. I don’t think Quinlan finishes this fight in that time frame, but I do think he continues the trend and finds a finish. Waters absorbs nearly seven significant strikes per minute, which is not a good metric when fighting someone as powerful as Quinlan. This one should be fun for however long it lasts, and I will side with Quinlan to win and find a finish early in under two rounds.
Bet: Josh Quinlan ML -185 / Quinlan vs Waters u1.5 rounds -135
Durden vs Johnson Odds
Cody Durden +120, Charles Johnson -145
Charles Johnson steps into the Octagon for the fifth time since making his debut, and for the third time this year. Inner G is a veteran in the MMA world, and is not someone to take lightly. Surprisingly he lost his last fight against Ode Osbourne, coming out flat. He had low output, and the wrestling of Ode was successful in flustering Johnson and not letting him use his tools. Perhaps it was the pressure of fighting so soon, but I don’t expect Johnson to have those same issues against Cody Durden. Johnson is currently 3-2 in his last five, with two finishes coming through knockout. This matchup will be tough as Durden is also a veteran and not an easy out for anyone. Durden has been with the UFC since 2020 and is finding his stride with recent wins over Carlos Mota and JP Buys. Durden seems to be blending his attacks well and using his wrestling to find clear paths to victory. Johnson has a height and three-inch reach advantage, and will have to implore his athleticism and striking from a distance to keep Durden at bay and damaged. Durden will have to close the distance to get takedowns, and he usually absorbs 3.13 significant strikes per minute when he fights. He is tough enough to take the damage, but Johnson is powerful enough to shut the lights off if Durden is not careful. Johnson has never been stopped in his MMA career, and Durden has been stopped twice since joining the UFC. From a betting perspective, I will side with the more calculated, athletic Johnson, who should be able to stuff the takedowns and pick Durden apart from a distance.
Bet: Charles Johnson ML -145
