Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The octagon will be tested this weekend when Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes toe the line to do battle. Blaydes looks to keep his No. 1 contender spot solidified while Sergei looks to climb the rankings and clear a path toward his first title shot. In the co-main event, Brad Tavares plays the role of gatekeeper against rising star Bruno Silva and before that, we get to see the always-exciting Bobby Green take on another heavy hitter in Jared Gordon.
There are 12 fights on the card this weekend, and below I have picked out my favorite fights along with my best bets for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Odds
Sergei Pavlovich +140; Curtis Blaydes -165
Pavlovich looks to move up the rank this week if he can get past No. 1 contender “Razor” Blaydes. Blaydes is currently 4-1 in his last five fights and with a win over Tom Aspinall in his previous fight. Blaydes has been top five for some time now, and now he gets to play gatekeeper. He has been knocked out recently and shown to be chinny sometimes, so I can understand why people might pick Pavlovich. Yet, Pavolich has never been past the first round in the UFC, and that can be a problem if Blaydes withstands the storm and drags this into deep waters. Pavlovich averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, he also has decent wrestling, but that hasn’t been seen yet because once he starts to throw punches, he empties the tank until the ref stops the fight. Every fighter has his moment of adversity, and I think this weekend, Blaydes will be that adversity. Blaydes has fought the better competition, and fighting in the heavyweight division in any organization long enough will eventually get you knocked out. Blaydes has the wrestling skill set to slow the pressure from Sergei, and even if he doesn’t get the initial takedown, he will do enough to tire the Russian and drag him into waters he’s never been in. From a betting perspective, I will take Blaydes to drag this into deep waters and at least find the finish in the second or third once Pavlovich tires out.
Bet: Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO or submission -120/Blaydes vs. Pavlovich over 1.5 rounds +110
Tavares vs. Silva Odds
Brad Tavares -155; Bruno Silva +135
Tavares and Silva headline the co-main event this weekend. Tavares is a middleweight division veteran who plays gatekeeper in this matchup. Tavares has been with the UFC since 2010 and has seen the best the UFC has to offer. In his last five fights, Tavares is 2-3 and is looking to return on the winning path. Tavares averages over 13 minutes of fight time. He also has a decent output averaging three significant strikes landed per minute. The problem may be that Tavares likes to bang and absorbs the same number of significant strikes when he fights. Against Silva, it wouldn’t be a good game plan to brawl. Silva has been with the UFC since 2021, and in that year, he fought three times, ending all fights by knockout. Silva is dangerous, and his output is slightly better at four significant strikes landed per minute, but like Tavares, he also absorbs a lot of damage. What separates these fighters is the experience and takedown defense that Tavares possesses. Sure, Tavares has been knocked out before, but that’s to be expected when you’ve been fighting top-flight talent for over a decade. Anything can happen when you’re fighting with 4oz gloves on your hands, but if Tavares can time the wild punches coming from Silva, I think he can make this fight look easy and dominate.
Bet: Brad Tavares ML -155
Wells vs. Semelsberger Odds
Jeremiah Wells -110; Matthew Semelsberger -110
Wells is kicking off the main card with violence, the Renzo Gracie Philly product looking to continue his undefeated run in the UFC against Semelsberger. Both fighters are dangerous, dynamic and capable of stopping a fight at any moment. Wells made his debut in 2021 and since then has finished all opponents. Wells fights like a heat-seeking missile and wastes little time in the octagon. He averages over three minutes of fight time and has yet to reach the third round in the UFC. He also blends his takedowns and strikes well, all the while defending 100% of takedowns. He’s at a disadvantage in height by four inches and one inch in reach. Because I believe these two will cancel each other out in wrestling, the power and durability of Wells will be the difference. For as athletic and durable as Semelsberger seems to be, he does have moments where he shows weakness in his chin, and against Wells, it won’t take many shots to find a knockout. In a coin flip, give me the guy with the better takedown defense and overall better game. Did I also mention that Wells hits like a Mack truck?
Bet: Jeremiah Wells ML -110/Wells vs. Semelsberger under 2.5 rounds -145
Prelims
Batgerel vs. Hiestand Odds
Dana Batgerel -145; Brady Hiestand +120
Dana Batgerel and Brady Hiestand is the perfect way to start the fight card this weekend. Both fighters fight with pressure and have high finishing rates. Both fighters can also wrestle but utilize their skills differently. Batgerel instead uses his wrestling to keep fights standing; meanwhile, Brady averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and looks to build control time and damage on the ground. Batgerel is primarily a striker with dynamite in his punches and kicks. His background is in traditional Mongolian wrestling and when necessary, he can grapple out of bad situations. So far in the UFC, he has been known for his aggressive style and has three first-round knockouts in three out of his last five fights. Hiestand is a guy well-rounded fighter who made his debut on the ultimate fighter back in 2021. Throughout the show, he was known for his strong wrestling base and powerful left hand. He doesn’t have a high output, as he averages 2.43 significant strikes landed per minute, but he does chase takedowns relentlessly and pushes a high pace. Overall, Hiestand belongs in the UFC, and this will be his toughest test. He will have to wrestle and limit the brawls with Batgerel. Brawling with Batgerel can lead to a knockout, so I expect Brady to wrestle early and often. He will still have to stay composed, though, as one wrong transition on the ground can leave him underneath the Mongolian wrestler’s ground and pound.
Bet: Dana Batgerel ML -145
Marshall vs. Gomis Odds
Francis Marshall -210; William Gomis +171
A possible fight-of-the-night contender comes in the form of Marshall vs. Gomis. Two relatively new fighters in the UFC are looking to make a name for themselves in the featherweight division. Gomis is undefeated in his last five fights and has one win in the ufc by decision. Marshall made his debut on the contender series and made a statement in his official debut when he stopped Marcelo Rojo in the first round. Marshall is also undefeated in his last five fights, and overall he is 7-0. Fighting under UFC veteran Kurt Pellegrino, Marshall is a perfect blend of crisp, powerful shots and solid wrestling. The numbers can be skewed, only having fought two times for the UFC . Still, Marshall has been averaging nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute combined with about five takedowns per 15 minutes.
A work rate like that indicates a good gas tank and the ability to withstand damage and take opponents into deep waters. Gomis is a dynamic striker/wrestler. He is athletic and moves well but at times seems to throw a lot of power in his strikes, which can lead to an over-extension and exposure for the takedown. Still, getting the takedown on Gomis is challenging in the UFC, and he has a perfect 100% takedown defense. Gomis averages just over two significant strikes landed per minute and three takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has a good gas tank, so his ability to take damage is good. This fight will be a war, and I expect it to be back and forth until the final bell. However, Francis is at a disadvantage by one inch in reach and three inches in height. He won’t have to close the distance much as Gomis likes to clinch and grind his opponents on the cage. Therefore, my best bet for this fight is for it to go the distance.
Bet: Marshall vs. Gomis fight goes the distance -125/Francis by decision +150
Usman vs. Tafa Odds
Mohammed Usman -108; Junior Tafa -115
Usman makes the walk a second time in the UFC when he toes the line against UFC newcomer Tafa. Usman made a name for himself on the Ultimate Fighter show last year. As the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, Mohammed had a big shadow to overcome. Winning the Ultimate Fighter, then winning his official debut by emphatic knockout, Mohammed is well on his way to paving a path for himself if he can win over Tafa this weekend. Usman averages just over two significant strikes landed per minute and, in his short time with the UFC, has attempted zero takedowns per 15 minutes. On the regional scene, usman did implore a wrestling base fighting style. He utilized his football background and aggression on the football field to dominate and look for ground and pound. Still, Usman isn’t as polished as his brother, and he tends to brawl and depend on his power for most of his fights. I for one am not a big believer in his skill set, but I do have to respect the power he brings into the cage. Tafa, on the other hand, is a similar-style fighter who likes to brawl, but the significant difference is that Tafa has had experience in combat sports. A former Glory kickboxer, Tafa has never been much of a kicker, but he surely brings the power and boxing technique into the cage. Compared to Usman, who seems to be learning on the job, Tafa has been in the ring/Cage with high-level opponents and has his brother and current ufc fighter Justin Tafa to help him prepare. With the amount of power both fighters bring into the cage, anything can happen. Still, for me, I will back the more technically sound fighter in Tafa, who, even though he’s making his debut, should be the cleaner and more precise striker against the brawler Usman.
Bet: Junior Tafa ML -115
Glenn vs. Giagos Odds
Rick Glenn -155; Christos Giagos +130
Giagos vs. Glenn is a treat for the hardcore fans of the UFC. Both fighters are veterans and have been in the ufc for almost a decade. Giagos began his career back in 2014 and is a very well-rounded fighter that has fought top talent in the lightweight division. He has an aggressive wrestling base style and averages over three takedowns per fifteen minutes. Giagos also does have power in his hands, but the damage he does is rarely done when he stands, and any of his strikes on the feet are to open lanes for the takedown. Glenn is the perfect dance partner for Giagos, as he is also very experienced and has a good wrestling base. The difference is that Glenn has more power and technique in his punches. Glenn could stand and bang and didn’t just strike to open up takedowns. Glenn will end up using his wrestling to negate the takedowns from Giagos, and with a 68% takedown defense, I think he will be just fine. Giagos also has been chinny in the past and is liable for getting knocked out by Glenn after attempting ten takedowns. This one should be fun and make a case for the fight of the night.
Bet: Rick Glenn ML -155
