UFC Fight Night MMA Betting Odds (4/15)

The UFC heads to Missouri this week, where the “Blessed Express” Max Holloway faces “Almighty” Arnold Allen. Holloway is fresh off a decision loss to the current champ Alexander Volkanovski. Arnold Allen recently fought Calvin Kattar in what ended up being a quick night after Kattar suffered an injury. On a 12-fight win streak, Allen looks to continue his path to the top through former champ and always dangerous Holloway.

In the co-main event, another legend returns to the ring when Edson Barboza faces New York native and now fighting out of Florida, Billy Quarantillo. With 14 fights on the card, Kansas City should be electric Saturday night, and I expect a lot of fight-of-the-night contenders. This card is close in terms of odds, and there’s an opportunity for value on many underdogs this week. Of the 14 fights on the card, I will pick and break down my favorite fights and provide a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.

Main Card

Holloway vs. Allen Odds

Max Holloway -185; Arnold Allen +151

In the history of the UFC, there have been many champions across all divisions. Still, there is only a handful of champions that have dominated and defended the belt, like Max Holloway. Holloway has been in the UFC since 2012, and after a rough start, he went on to be Fighter of the Year consecutively from 2014 to 2017 and again in 2021. You name them, and Max has probably fought them in the featherweight division. At 23-7 overall, he has spent most of his career at the highest level and currently is 19-7 under the UFC flag, only having lost to current or former champions, with his most prominent rival being Volkanovski. Holloway has a fast-paced, high-output type of fighting style paired with a legendary chin. There isn’t a fight that Holloway isn’t in a war, and at 31 years of age, you have to wonder when his endurance and godlike chin will start to crack.

Holloway averages 7.24 significant strikes landed per minute. Still, the concern is that he also absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute, and against an aggressive striker like Arnold, that could be a problem. Another issue for Max will be defending the takedowns coming from Allen. Allen must blend his strikes with his wrestling well enough to close the distance and not let Holloway dance on the outside with his boxing and footwork. Arnold Allen, like Holloway, has been part of the roster for some time now. He would only fight once a year when the UFC was in Europe, and he had a couple of injuries that had him pull out of fights; it makes sense why Allen is only starting to get noticed. Arnold Allen is 19-1 overall and with the one loss happening during his short stint with Cage Warriors in Europe.

Since that loss, Allen has won 12 straight fights and is looking for the most significant win of his career this weekend to make it 13. Since 2019 Allen has picked up his activity, and after he beat Sodiq Yusuff in 2021, he suddenly became someone to worry about in the division. The fight against Yusuff was interesting because Allen was outstruck and still managed to win. The difference, in my opinion, was the impact of the fighters’ strikes. Every time Allen landed, it was louder and more impactful compared to Yusuff’s. That same situation can occur this weekend. Allen averages 3.40 significant strikes landed per minute, nearly four strikes less than Max. The difference, though, is that Allen doesn’t take too many shots coming his way and defends 67% of strikes. If Allen can stick and move and occasionally work in takedown attempts, he can make it a long night for the former champion. The optics of Allen’s strikes landing compared to Holloway’s should also be enough to sway the judges in close rounds. The only issue I have with Allen is his gas tank. He has been known to fade the longer the fight goes on. Against a fighter like Max, that’s not a good quality to have because Max can keep the same pace all 25 minutes. From a betting perspective, I will side with the durability of both fighters and bet this fight to go the distance. I will also be taking a shot at Allen. I believe that Holloway is still hungry and good enough to make another run at the title, but as long as Volk is sitting at the top, I don’t see him doing anything other than contending. For that reason, I will go with the new blood at the top and someone more determined to accomplish things that Holloway had already completed many times over. 

Bet: Arnold Allen ML +151/Allen v Holloway fight goes the distance -120

Barboza vs. Quarantillo Odds

Edson Barboza +145; Billy Quarantillo -175

Barboza is another legend stepping into the octagon this weekend. He’s taking on New York native Quarantillo, who now fights out of Florida. This fight has the potential for fight of the night, and it should be electric from the sound of the bell. Billy Q brings a high-paced, high-volume, grind-it-out style to the cage. His best quality is his endurance and ability to swamp his opponents when they start to break. His most recent win came against Alex Hernandez in a back-and-forth battle. Hernandez dominated the first half of the fight, and Billy Q withstood the onslaught and turned the tide once Hernandez began to fade. Everyone knows what Barboza brings to the table at this point in his career. He’s one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC, and if Quarantillo doesn’t blend his strikes with his wrestling well enough to crowd Barboza. It could be a long or short night for Quarantillo, depending on where the kick lands for Barboza. Quarantillo should adopt what Bryce Mitchell did to Barboza and wrestle. Close the distance and crowd Barboza so that his most dangerous weapons, his kicks, could be neutralized. Barboza in his prime, was almost impossible to take down and even harder to keep down if you managed to land a takedown. At this stage in his career, it’s getting harder to back 37-year-old Barboza, especially if he can’t get himself off the ground anymore. Some would go with Barboza at plus money, but the smart money would be on Billy Q. Quarantillo will wrestle and wear on Barboza until he melts under pressure. I can see a finish in this fight, and that’s why I will take Billy Q and the juice on the money-line and the fight to go over two and a half rounds. Both fighters average over 12 minutes of fight time, and when they happen to lose, it’s by decision.

Bet: Barboza vs. Quarantillo over 2.5 rds -125/Billy Quarantillo ML -175

Cutelaba vs. Boser Odds

Ion Cutelaba -132; Tanner Boser +110

Another fun and explosive fight comes from Cutelaba and Boser. Boser is making his debut at light heavyweight after making a run at the heavyweight division and failing. The logic of using his speed against the bigger and slower fighters didn’t have a promising future for Boser, and stepping down and being welcomed by Cutelaba is perfect. Cutelaba is talented enough to finish anyone, but his overly aggressive style has gotten the best of him lately and has led to his current three-fight losing streak. Boser has fast, accurate hands, even though he has notched some knockout wins in the past. The power in this fight belongs to Cutelaba, and Boser is likelier to win a war of attrition and find a finish late after Cutelaba inevitably fades. Cutelaba can use his wrestling to grind out a win, and he averages nearly four times as many takedowns per 15 minutes. But, considering how well Boser has wrestled in the past and that he defends 65% of takedowns. I will side with the slight underdog and back Boser to survive the early onslaught and find a finish late. This fight doesn’t need much analysis as it should be fireworks for as long as it lasts and Boser having bad luck with judges in the past is always motivated to end fights and leave the judges as mere spectators.

Bet: Tanner Boser ML +110

Jacoby vs. Murzakanov Odds

Dustin Jacoby -160; Azamat Murzakanov +135

Jacoby faces Murzakanov in what should be a hard-hitting clash of styles. Both fighters are on their second stints with the UFC, and both are looking to keep their current win steaks alive. Even though Azamat only has 12 fights in his professional career. He fought top talent but a failed drug test back in 2017, and as a result, has been away from the cage until 2021, when he made a comeback through the contender series. After an emphatic knockout, it was easy for Dana to sign the Russian back into the promotion. Since debuting last year, he has found two third-round finishes against top-tier opponents, Tafon Nchukwi and Devin Clark. Murzakanov carries his power into deep waters, and if he starts incorporating his wrestling into his game plan, I can’t see him losing many fights. Azamat is a master of sport in Sambo and wrestling, and against a better and longer fighter, he will have to close the distance and crowd Dustin, so he can’t get his kicks off. This fight will be close, and it will come down to the fighter that has enough gas at the end that wins. The longer this fight goes, the more Jacoby has to defend the takedown, which will zap his energy and leave him open to the powerful counters coming from Azamat. This fight has violence written all over it, and I’m going to side with the fighter that has more tools. I’m also going to take the over two and half rounds prop because both fights are very durable and neither has ever been stopped in the UFC. 

Bet: Murzakanov vs. Jacoby over 2.5 rounds -110/Azamat Murzakanov ML +135

Prelims

Brown vs. Algeo Odds

T.J. Brown +162; Bill Algeo -192

In the featured prelim of the night, the king of Prussia, Bill Algeo, faces off against Downtown T.J. Brown. Algeo is coming off a split-decision loss to Andre Fili six months ago, while Brown was coming off a submission win over Erik Silva three months ago. Algeo has a well-rounded skill set that would be even better if he ever decided to fight at range. Algeo averages nearly six significant strikes landed per minute but also absorbs just over four. For someone who usually fights with a reach advantage, Algeo tends to stay in the pocket often, leading to him getting rocked or taken down in the clinch. Brown averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes, and there’s no doubt that his game plan involves getting this fight to the mat. Algeo has good jiujitsu and will have to use it defensively to get himself out of bad spots in this one. He does have a 55% takedown defense, but often in fights, he finds himself down and has to pull himself out of the fire. Algeo has never been stopped inside the UFC, which speaks volumes about his durability and will to fight for your dollars. Both fighters are 3-3 in the UFC, and a loss in this fight could mean the end of the road. I expect this fight to be exciting, and I also expect Brown to wrestle as if his life depended on it. The best bet for this fight to go the distance prop because both fighters average nearly 14 minutes of fight time, which amounts to a three-round fight (15 minutes).

Bet: Algeo vs. Brown FGTD -175 

Royval vs. Nicolau Odds

Brandon Royval +173; Matheus Nicolau -210

One of the best fights on the card is between Royval and Nicolau. Both fighters are dynamic and exciting and want to light up the featherweight division with a win this weekend. Royval is coming off a come-from-behind submission win against Matt Schnell, while Nicolau is also coming off a dominant win against Schnell by knockout. Now that both fighters have passed the Schnell litmus test, they face off against each other in what should be fireworks. Until his most recent losses, Royval had never been stopped in any fight, and after his last loss that came by submission, it exposed a hole in his game that Nicolau could expose in this fight. Royval is an excellent grappler, but his willingness to take risks in the wrong moments could cause him to fight from behind easily and let Nicolau gain ground control that in a close fight could be crucial. Nicolau is outsized in this matchup but not outclassed. Even though he can be slow to pull the trigger at times, his output and accuracy are much better than Royval’s, and, in the judge’s eyes, he will have a more significant impact. From a betting perspective, the best bet is a double chance prop bet. I’ll be taking Matheus Nicolau to win and for the fight to go over one and a half rounds. I also like the durability of both fighters and will be taking a stab at the over two and a half rounds prop as well. 

Bet: Royval vs. Nicolau over 2.5 rounds -110/Matheus Nicolau ML & over 1.5 rounds -110

Vannata vs. Zellhuber Odds

Lando Vannata +108; Daniel Zellhuber -130

Old school vs. new school is what you get when Vannata faces off against Zellhuber. Zellhuber is a relative newcomer in the UFC, with only two fights for the promotions thus far. Zellhuber made his way into the UFC through the Contender Series, where he won dominantly. His debut would be the rude awakening he perhaps needed as it brought his first professional loss. Now in his second fight for the promotion, Zellhuber is up against a veteran who only ever fought in the UFC and is currently 4-6 for the promotion, Vannata. Since his debut against Tony Ferguson, Vannata has never shied away from a challenge, where most fighters look for tune-up fights and career builders. He stepped in there with some of the top guys in the division. It’s been almost a year to the date since Vannata fought, and if the trend continues where he wins a fight after coming off a loss, then this one should be a treat. Both fighters are out to prove themselves — with a loss here, Vannata perhaps find a new home or job, while Zellhuber would go back to the regional scene for more development. Both fighters have pressure coming into this fight, and for my money, I will side with another distance prop. Vannata has never been stopped in his career, and Zellhuber has only ever loss once by decision. This fight from start to finish will be a fun one, and if there happens to be a finish, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s in the third round. Both guys are durable, dynamic, and capable of making this the night’s fight. The best bet is for this fight to go the distance, but my outright bet will be with Zellhuber. The golden boy is still young and new in the UFC, and fighting Vannata at this stage is perfect for his career and path to the top. A win will move Zellhuber up the rankings and give him experience against someone who has fought the best in the division. Zellhuber has all the tools to nullify any wrestling coming from Vannata and keep this fight standing where Zellhuber can use his height and reach to do damage. 

Bet: Zellhuber vs. Vannata fight goes the distance -170

Bolanos vs. Phillips Odds

Gaston Bolanos -190; Aaron Phillips +155

The only word that came to mind for this fight was violence. Phillips is making his second run in the UFC after his first run ended with two losses in 2014. He would fight for the WEC for a couple of years, then returned to the octagon against Jack Shore in 2020. It’s been three long years since Phillips has fought, and this time a newcomer and absolute hammer Bolanos will welcome him to the cage. Bolanos fought for Bellator before the UFC, and this weekend marks his first fight for the UFC. Bolanos has never won a fight by submission or decision; he has only ever won fights by knockout. In nine professional fights, Bolanos has been to one decision, and it was a split decision loss. He has an aggressive style rounded off by decent takedown defense and athleticism. His favorite weapon is the spinning elbow, and he landed the knockout of the year back in 2017. With a Muay Thai and kickboxing background, Bolanos only wants to bring violence to the cage. My favorite bet for this fight is the under two and a half rounds prop bet. Phillips may try to wrestle early to neutralize the aggressor, but once Bolanos gets going, I don’t expect him to waste time and look for the kill early.

Bet: Bolanos vs. Phillips under 2.5 rounds -145/Gaston Bolanos ML (parlay piece)