Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Marlon Vera and Corey Sandhagen headline this weekend’s UFC Fights Night, both looking to keep winning streaks alive. “Chito” Vera is coming off a win over UFC legend and former champ Dominick Cruz. Sandhagen got back into the win column last time out after defeating Song Yadong. Both fighters won by stoppage in the fourth round, and there’s no doubt they will look for the same result Saturday.
In the co-main event, 41-year-old Holly Holm takes on Yana Santos in hopes of igniting a run toward the title after she lost an ugly split decision to Kaitlin Veira last time out. There are six fights on the main card and 12 fights total, with the first fight kicking off at 4 p.m. ET from San Antonio. Below. I break down my favorite fights from this weekend and give you my best bets for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Vera vs. Sandhagen Odds
Marlon Vera +145; Cory Sandhagen -170
The main event of the evening comes in the form of two dangerous, calculated and hungry fighters looking for their way to the title. For Sandhagen, it’s an opportunity to get back to the fight that left him at the doorstep of the belt; for Vera, it’s about proving once again that he belongs and that he is, in fact, the most dangerous bantamweight on the planet. Both fighters have experience, but the experience at the higher level goes to Vera, who has for the most part grown up in the UFC, has seen the best of the best and is now looking to cement his spot among those greats. His last performance against Dominic Cruz showed exactly why he is ready for a shot at the title. He not only beat the former champ, but he beat him in such a way that not many people can say, and that’s by finish in the fourth round. Vera is notorious for beginning slowly in fights, but once he gets going and into the later rounds, it’s precisely what he wants, and it’s why he should have success against Sandhagen. Sandhagen, like Vera, is now a veteran inside the UFC and has fought in main events and been challenged for a title. He has a high output and blends in his striking and wrestling well. The equalizer in this fight for me is the power coming from the side of Vera. Vera was out struck against Cruz and was also out struck against Font; the most significant difference in both of those fights is how harmful the effects were every time Vera landed. Sandhagen can jump out to a lead, as Vera always starts slow. Still, the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Vera because he can not only increase his pace in the later rounds but also carry power which can be vital during late exchanges and brawl situations. From a betting perspective the Value is on Vera for me who not only comes alive in the later rounds but also has the power to hurt Sandhagen and prevent him from implementing his game plans.
Bet: Marlon Vera ML +145/Vera in Rounds 4, 5 or decision +275
Landwehr vs. Lingo Odds
Nate Landwehr -210; Austin Lingo +175
Another exciting matchup and perhaps the most explosive fight of the night comes from Lingo and Landwehr. Both have been fighting for the UFC since 2020 and have high output/pace fight styles. Landwehr averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, while Lingo averages almost five. Both fighters are also very durable and have shown the ability to walk through fire to get wins in the past. Walking through fire doesn’t necessarily mean a good thing, as it means that each fighter could take a beating and win a war of attrition that led to them finding wins once their opponents faded because of exhaustion or getting caught. This fight has all the potential for the battle of the night and should have the fans in Texas on their feet from the sound of the first bell. The difference for me in this fight will be the durability of Landwehr, who I believe is more rigid and able to take more punishment. He can also wrestle late in fights which is crucial in close contests. There is a chance a finish could happen in this fight, but because I don’t think it happens early, my best bet for this fight is a round prop, as I believe this fight goes on into the second half of the second round and the third.
Bet: Landwehr vs. Lingo over 1.5 rounds -190
Njokuani vs. Duraev Odds
Chidi Njokuani -155; Albert Duraev +130
Kicking off the main card with a bang is Njokuani taking on Duraev. Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC but not new to the cage, as both have been fighting for quite some time now on the regional scene. Duraev was fighting out of Russia and was undefeated in the ACB promotion. Duraev is 1-1 in the UFC after suffering his first loss in his last fight against Joaquin Buckley. Buckley did everything right in his fight against Duraev, and for Chidi to succeed, he will have to do the same and keep this fight standing and off the mat where Duraev wants the fight. Duraev has a wrestle-first gameplan, and against the much taller and much longer Njokuani, if he can’t close the distance and find a takedown, he will get picked apart and possibly finish.
Along with a 75% takedown defense, Njokuani also possesses the great equalizer: power. Duraev hasn’t lost much in his career, but when he does lose, it has been by stoppage. If he doesn’t find takedowns in this fight, I expect him to get finished by the power of Njokuani, who averages three times the significant strikes and connects on 72% of his strikes. Duraev is a great wrestler but his stand up is a liability and will get exposed this weekend agaisnt Chidi.
Bet: Chidi Njokuani ML -155/Njokuani vs. Duraev over 1.5 rounds -115
Prelims
Parsons vs. Giles Odds
Preston Parsons -110; Trevin Giles -110
This is my favorite fight/bet of the night. This fight is a coin flip to the books in Vegas, and I agree that the fight will be entertaining, but I expect this fight to be straightforward and for Parsons to dominate. Parsons averages nearly triple the significant strikes landed as Giles and twice as many takedowns. He also has a 100% takedown defense, so any wrestling offense coming from the side of Giles will be handled and should be reversed. Parsons has gassed in his past fights, and considering he has two fights now in the UFC, I expect him to find his rhythm and put on a masterful performance against the Texas native who has been in the UFC since 2017. I don’t think Giles will ever make a title run, and I don’t expect him to get past Parsons, either. The pick is Parsons, who I believe is better in the areas that matter in this fight, in the wrestling and volume departments. Giles has had problems with his gas tank in the past, and against the wrestling of Parsons, I expect him to have some issues the longer this fight goes. With over 60% of Parsons’s wins coming by submission, I will also sprinkle on his sub prop at +275.
Bets: Preston Parsons ML -110/Parsons by sub +275/Parsons vs. Giles over 1.5 rounds -145
Altamirano vs. Salvador Odds
Victor Altamirano +100; Vinicius Salvador -120
This is the night’s first fight. Both fighters are alums of the Contender Series and are coming off finishes in their last bouts. Altamirano found his first official UFC win and UFC finish when he stopped Daniel Da Silva in his last fight, while Salvador knocked out his opponent on the Contender Series and nearly made Dana White fall out of his seat. This fight could be a banger, and the matchmakers did well by making it the night’s first fight. For Altamirano, he will have to avoid the hurricane coming his way in the first round and drag this fight into the later rounds of the match. Salvador has only been to a decision once in his career, so for Altamirano, it’s probably best to push the pace and wear on the gas tank of Salvador once he realizes he can’t finish him quickly. Overall, the better fighter is Altamirano. He has fought the better competition on the regional scene and went undefeated while fighting for LFA, and everything Salvador is doing now, Altamirano has as well. Not to mention that the competition on the regional stage for Salvador was questionable, and some of those fights could be deemed setups. The pick is Altamirano, who in my opinion, has the better gas tank, fight IQ and experience inside the UFC.
Bet: Victor Altamirano ML +100
Torres vs. Ogden Odds
Manuel Torres -150; Trey Ogden +125
Torres and Ogden are the second to go on the prelims, and both want to keep their winning streaks intact. Torres is looking for a fifth straight win by stoppage as his last four fights have all ended in the first round by KO/TKO or submission. Ogden is looking to extend his winning streak to two after getting back into the win column his last time out against Daniel Zellhuber. Against Zellhuber, Ogden was a moderate underdog, and now in this matchup, he is a slight underdog. Still, this time will be fighting a more aggressive and better-calculated Manuel Torres. Trey Ogden can grapple but often neglects that department for striking, and in this matchup, that will get him into trouble. Against Zellhuber, Ogden was fighting a young and fresh debutant and against Torres, he was fighting another newcomer, but this newcomer has eleven finishes in fifteen professional fights. Trey Ogden got lucky against a rookie with a low fight iq when he fought Zellhuber; this time, he’s fighting a finisher who isn’t shy and will mix it up. The pick is Manuel Torres to win, Ogden should wrestle and try to grapple to win this fight, but when he tries to strike and get overconfident, I expect him to get knocked out. Along with four first-round finishes within his last five, Torres also has a striking differential of +7 significant strikes compared to Ogden.
Bet: Manuel Torres ML -150
