UFC Fight Night MMA Betting Odds (3/11)

The drama between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan was thought to be settled, but when Yan disrespected Aljo’s longtime friend and training partner Merab Dvalishvili, the beef was reignited. The UFC stays in Vegas this weekend, but instead of the Apex, it heads to the Theater at the Virgin Hotels.

The main event features Yan and Dvalishvili, which should be entertaining and possibly a fight of the year, considering the emotions from the Dvalishvili side. The co-main event features Alexander Volkvov and Alexander Romanov, two Russian giants looking to make their way toward the championship now owned by Jon Jones. The main card also features a main event canceled not too long ago when Ryan Spann takes on Nikita Krylov in another exciting matchup that could be the night’s fight and one to remember. This card has already been juiced to high heaven, and with a lot of new faces on this card, I am going to lean toward the looks that I recognize and the fighters that have made me money in the past.

There are 14 fights on this card, and below I break down my favorite fights and give you the best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.

Main Card

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Odds

Petr Yan -250; Merab Dvalishvili +205

When Yan lost to Aljo last year, the beef was thought to be over. Well, a wager set on the date of that matchup has reignited the rivalry, and now, instead of Aljo, it will be his good friend Dvalishvili stepping in to settle the score. Dvalishvili has been in the UFC since 2017 and has been a ball of energy and violence. An athlete from Georgia, he wears his country’s pride on his sleeve and does not shy away from saying that this fight is personal and vital for his country. Outside of the cage, drama is not something I care about much, but when it ignites a battle inside the octagon, it makes it all the sweeter. This matchup is a striker vs. grappler matchup, with Yan filling the striker’s spot. Yan is a very well-rounded fighter, and even though a grappler beat him in his last match, the difference in skill between Dvalishvili and Aljo is worlds apart. For that reason, although he may not like Yan, I don’t believe Dvalisvhili will beat him, because the Georgian doesn’t have the skill set to deal with Yan’s well-rounded game. Yan can wrestle and has a takedown defense of 90% while landing 5.32 significant strikes per minute. Dvalishvili averages nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 4.21 significant strikes per minute. He can strike, but his strikes usually lead to takedowns and not knockouts. Because of the durability of both fighters, I think this fight goes into the championship rounds, and because of how much this means to Dvalishvili, Yan will have to kill the man to find a finish practically. So my best bet for this fight is for the war to go the distance and for Yan to win. Merab will bring on the challenge, but his skill set and technique are not enough to get the win over a much better former champion Yan. 

Bet: Yan vs. Dvalishvili fight goes the distance -205/Yan by points +115

Krylov vs. Spann Odds

Nikita Krylov -170; Ryan Spann +145

Krylov and Spann were scheduled to fight recently, and on the day of the event, Krylov pulled out because of a sickness or, in my opinion, a weight-cut issue. My breakdown and feelings about this matchup remain the same. Spann is a good athlete with dynamite in his hands and the ability to find a submission when all else fails. I think Krylov is the more complete fighter of the two and the soldier with the better ground game. If Krylov is brilliant and wants an easy path to victory, I believe he will have to put spann on his back and make spann earn his way back to his feet. The more Krylov attempts takedowns and makes spann use energy, the less danger or power comes from spann. Still, when Spann can’t find a knockout, he usually capitalizes on his opponents, leaving their necks out to grab. Krylov has lost in the past by submission, so he has been caught already shooting in for a takedown. This can play in favor of Spann because he will be defending takedowns often in this matchup. From a betting perspective, it is easy to call, in my opinion; as long as Nikita keeps his neck safe and chin tucked, I can see him grinding out a finish late or a decision victory. I won’t overthink this fight too much and go with my gut from the very start. 

Bet: Nikita Krylov ML -170

Petrino vs. Turkalj Odds

Vitor Petrino -110; Anton Turkalj -110

Kicking off the main card this weekend are two newcomers and alums of Dana White’s Contender Series. Turkalj and Petrino face off in a classic grappler vs. striker match-up. Anton made his debut on the contender series, and although he performed well, he did not impress the boss and was not awarded a contract. Months later, Turkalj was offered a suicide mission, aka a short-notice fight against Jailton Almeida. The war did not end well for him, and Turkalj had a rude awakening of what awaited him if he did not take this seriously. With an entire camp, Turkalj looks to find a finish and get into the win column in style. Vitor Petrino made his debut on the contender series, and after some trouble on the ground, he was able to find a KO finish and give the brass what they wanted, violence. Turkalj has a two-inch height and one-inch reach advantage, which I don’t think will matter much because his clear path to victory is on the ground in the grappling department. The weakness for Petrino comes in the grappling department, so if he doesn’t knock Anton out in the first round and Anton can take him down. I don’t see him having much success in this fight. Petrino is an athlete and physical specimen, so he should be able to negate the first few takedowns but eventually will falter because of all that muscle. Anton averages nearly nine takedown attempts per fifteen minutes, and if he minds the power coming from Petrino. This is a coin flip, as the line suggests, and I will side with the grappler in this one. 

Bet: Anton Turkalj ML -110/Turkalj vs. Petrino u2.5 -175

Prelims

Gravely vs. Henry Odds

Tony Gravely +120; Victor Henry -140

Kicking off the prelims Saturday afternoon is a fight in the bantamweight division between two octagon vets in Gravely and Henry. Henry made his debut in 2021, and even though he had just landed on the big stage, he was already a vet in the octagon of 20-plus fights; it was still impressive to see how well the decade-plus vet performed against a UFC vet in Raoni Barcelos. It figured to be a difficult first test against Barcelos, but Henry produced a master-class performance to clearly walk away with a decision win. The UFC, impressed with Henry, immediately moved him up the ladder against divisional veteran Raphael Assuncao. Still, it was not the same Henry that fought Barcelos, and it cost him the fight. Henry will look to rebound against Gravely, who is still looking for a finish to remember inside the UFC. Gravely is well-rounded and blends a heavy wrestling base with striking that only is a means to an end and not to end fights. He had some early success as a standout wrestler who could hold his own on his feet. While Gravely has shown that he is capable of handling the lesser talent of the UFC, he still has yet to find a win that gets him over the hump and into the rankings. He can still get caught when striking, and while he is typically accurate with his takedowns, he has yet to show much of an ability to control his opponents on the canvas. Gravely’s skillset makes this an exciting fight, but this does look like Henry’s fight to lose. As a high-paced striker and aggressive grappler, he will likely have to deal with some early resistance but should be able to tire Gravely out and chip away with strikes when they stand and take this fight over in the later rounds. The pick is Henry via decision, and on the money line, in case Henry finds a finish once Gravely fades.

Bet: Victor Henry ML -140/Henry vs. Gravely fight goes the distance -155 

Grant vs. Assuncao Odds

Davey Grant -140; Raphael Assuncao +110

Assuncao is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He was one of the best fighters in the bantamweight division in the early 2000s while never receiving much recognition. For one thing, Assuncao’s style is very defensive-minded and makes it only exciting to viewers on a particular wavelength. The Brazilian built his style around defense and powerful counters. It has made Assuncao a decision machine, as 56% of his wins come by the judge’s scorecard. He only produces a little volume when he strikes and looks to land the perfect punch too often. A loss to Marlon Moraes in 2019 started a four-fight losing streak for Assuncao, whose calculated, low-volume style had clearly turned against him, so when he won in October over Victor Henry, it was a pleasant surprise as Assuncao showed flashes of his old self that made runs for the title. Henry is good, and after his fight with Barcelos in his debut, it is clear he is on the rise, and still, Assuncao shut down Henry’s game plan and neutralized the rising prospect. Now 40, Assuncao is toeing the line against another veteran in the cage Davey Grant. Grant was a runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter in 2013, then due to bad luck and five years’ worth of injuries, Grant was almost forgotten about. Since getting healthy enough to return in 2018, “Dangerous Davey” has proven to be an entertaining and powerful fighter. His striking might not be technically sound or will be featured in a striking DVD, but he carries enough power to catch opponents and can mix it up with some solid grappling on the mat. Grant is hittable enough and leaves himself open for Assuncao to land offense effectively. Still, Assuncao doesn’t throw enough volume, so he will have a tough time dealing with Grant’s calf kick and movement. Grant is aggressive and durable enough that the power coming from Assuncao counters will not discourage him from moving forward and looking for the finish. Even though Assuncao looked like his old self against Henry, there is still the issue with his durability and how his chin may not hold up against heavier hitters at this stage in his career.

Bet: Davey Grant ML -140/Grant vs. Assuncao fight goes the distance +115

Bautista vs. Cannetti Odds

Mario Bautista -1100; Guido Cannetti +650

Bautista had a challenging debut in the UFC, getting thrown into a lions’ den on short notice against Cory Sandhagen. Bautista is an exciting fighter who was great on offense, but his defensive tactics left him exposed, and it showed when he was knocked out by Trevin jones in 2021. After that loss in 2021, Bautista would take a year off and return to the drawing board. Since returning to the octagon in 2022, Bautista has been much more calculated and aggressive. He could quickly get to his grappling game and find finishes. We should be talking about Bautista getting into the rankings soon enough, but first, he gets a winnable but dangerous fight against Cannetti. Still pushing limits at 43 years old, Cannetti has turned an opportunity on The Ultimate Fighter Latin America into a decade-long career with the promotion. His durability, or lack thereof, is why Cannetti can still compete at 43 years old. The “Ninja” is still dangerous and is by no means a walkover fight for anyone. A powerful athlete, Cannetti primarily fights behind bursts of offense and hits like a truck; Bautista will have to close the distance to avoid Guido from using any of his power. The pick for me is Bautista to win by submission at even odds. Bautista has over 60% of his wins by submission and Guido has loss 67% of his fights by submission. I wouldn’t be attacking the money line on Bautista either because its currently juiced to high heaven but if you’re looking for a parlay piece for this fight, I would take the fight to no go the distance at -300 odds, which is still juiced but a better piece than having Bautista in your three leg parlay at -1100.

Bet: Mario Bautista by submission +100

Williams vs. Brzeski Odds

Karl Williams -230; Lukasz Brzeski +190

The heavyweight division caps off our prelims when Karl Williams makes his official UFC debut against another heavyweight newcomer in Brzeski. Brzeski is an exciting talent to track, even if it feels like “The Bull” at times leaves much to be desired and looks like he doesn’t belong yet. He is tall, a solid athlete, and able to handle himself anywhere, but the Pole has a surprising lack of clean and easy wins on his resume. Brzeski usually starts off well enough — until things become a bit of a struggle, at which point he usually manages to outlast his opponent and sometimes find a late finish. Obviously, there is a worry that the approach might not work at the UFC level. He probably deserved to win his UFC debut over Martin Buday, but the latter’s forward pressure was enough to earn a narrow win on the scorecards. Brzeski looks for his first UFC win against Williams, who got a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Williams’ win on the show was not particularly impressive, as he won by decision in an ugly grind, but his control time and domination made it stand out. Essentially a career light heavyweight, Williams stepped in on days’ notice and outwrestled a collegiate wrestling standout and highly touted prospect Jimmy Lawson. That is really the only trustworthy part of Williams’ game at the moment, but it is still an impressive feather in his cap. In a heavyweight division where most fighters do not really wrestle, Williams may be able to make some headway fighting against the grain. This matchup almost entirely centers around Williams’ ability to turn this into one of those grinds, as otherwise, Brzeski is the much more potent striker and sets a much higher pace. The Pole does not stand out as a particularly stout wrestler, so the UFC newcomer gets the nod in what is essentially a coin flip. The pick is Williams in round three or by decision.

Bet: Karl Williams in Round 3 or decision +130