Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After an exciting weekend down under, the UFC is back in Vegas for another card in the apex. Jessica Andrade steps in as a replacement to face Erin Blanchfield, who is currently on a seven-fight win streak and is 4-0 in the UFC. In the co-main event, Zac Pagua will fight “The Beverly Hills Ninja,” Jordan Wright. Both fighters are coming off losses and are looking to get back in the win column in an exciting fashion.
This card has few names that fans will recognize, but it is packed with new talent that will one day be household names. There are 11 fights this weekend, and as always, I will be breaking down my favorite matchups from the card and providing a best bet for each. All odds are from BetMGM.
Main Card
Andrade vs. Blanchfield Odds
Jessica Andrade -140; Erin Blanchfield +115
Former title challenger and champion Andrade is stepping in on short notice Jessica Andrade. She fought last month against Lauren Murphy, but the only damage I expect Andrade to have from that fight is her knuckles, as she landed a record-breaking 210-plus significant strikes. Murphy and the refs did not want the fight to end, and it was not pretty. Andrade steps into this fight after Talita Santos was removed due to visa issues. Andrade is the cream of the crop in her division and is easily the toughest test to date for Blanchfield. Blanchfield is a new contender in the UFC and has so far beaten every challenger put in front of her. In every fighter’s career, they have a defining fight. For Blanchfield I believe this is that fight. She is 4-0 in the UFC and has improved every step of the way, proving to be a handful for anyone on the ground. In this matchup though, it’s difficult to assume she will continue to have her way like in previous fights. Blanchfield is going up against the strongest fighter in her division, and if she can’t get this fight to the ground successfully, she will have a long night trying to evade the fight ending power from Andrade. Outside of Valentina Schevchenko, no other fighter has ever taken down Andrade with ease, and if she’s willing to take this fight on short notice against someone who doesn’t help her career in anyway, then it’s safe to assume that she thinks she can win. Both fighters average over five significant strikes landed per minute, and while Andrade attempts nearly three takedowns per fight, she doesn’t depend on the takedown the way Blanchfield does. If this fight gets into the third round with Blanchfield 0-6 on takedown attempts, I don’t see her winning by finish or score cards. She has a decent standup, but it’s not refined, and if she eats too many strikes from Andrade it could end with Blanchfield waking up in the hospital. From a betting perspective I’m going to have to side with Andrade, especially since she’s at near even odds, which in my opinion is based off her short notice status. Still, I believe her experience at the highest level and five-round fights will be enough to show Blanchfield the levels that exist within the UFC. Give me Andrade to win and win convincingly.
The Bet: Jessica Andrade ML -125
Pauga vs. Wright Odds
Zac Pauga -275; Jordan Wright +225
The co-main event features a classic matchup between a striker in Wright and a wrestler in Pauga. Pauga is making his UFC debut after losing his fight against Mo Usman on the Ultimate Fighter season finale. Pauga was heavily favored going into that fight, but one punch changed his fate and gave Usman the win and contract. Pauga was heavily favored for good reason — his skill set is not the problem. His problem begins with his chin and the durability that it possesses. There is always a moment where Pauga gets stung and dropped and has to resort to his wrestling to recover on the ground. Once on the ground he grinds out his opponents enough that by the time they get up, the power is no longer a factor. Against Usman, Pauga tried and failed many times getting the fight to the ground and when he tried to close the distance for another takedown was met with a jab that put the lights out. In this matchup he has the potential to not only use his wrestling, but also find a finish against a 1-4 Jordan Wright. Wright had the ability to be very good and actually does possess a good skillset. His issue lies in the way he fights, he’s a berserker. Wright used to bulldoze his opponents on the regional scene, and it could be why in the UFC he hasn’t had much success. Wright hasn’t found his groove at the highest level and every time he steps into the octagon with a new game-plan he immediately gets out to sleep. Wright doesn’t have a single fight on his record that has gone to decision. Whether he wins or loses the fights end before getting to the judges. From a betting perspective I usually stay away from fights like this but considering the other fights on this card, I pretty much have no choice but to find a spot and capitalize. The spot I’m going with is that this fight doesn’t go the distance and in fact doesn’t even make it out of the first round.
The Bet: Pauga vs. Wright fight goes the distance -175
Parisian vs. Pogues Odds
Josh Parisian +200; Jamal Pogues -250
A pair of giants step into the cage when Parisian faces UFC newcomer and journeyman Pogues. Pogues had his first attempt in the UFC when he won a decision victory on the Contender Series. He had done enough to dominate the fight but did not find a finish and therefore did not impress the UFC brass. He made another attempt on the Contender Series last year, when he won again by decision but this time against a very durable and tough fighter. So the fact that he won by decision was not only enough, but it was a fight filled with action and proved that he was more than ready for the UFC. Pogues has a well-rounded skill set. His hand speed is impressive and when things get into a grind he can wrestle and not only brawl. For a heavyweight, Pogues moves well, and that may come in handy when he fights the much bigger and less athletic Parisian. Parisian is 2-2 in the UFC and has been with the promotion since 2020. He averages less than 10 minutes of fight time, absorbs five significant strikes per minute, and the takedowns he does attempt are sloppy and usually when his opponents are fatigued. He does hit hard but so does every heavyweight — they’re big. Still the experience is on the side of Parisian, having faced higher-level competition, but I don’t think that’s going to be enough to get the win against the faster, more athletic fighter who wrestles well. Pogues may still be a bit raw with some of his techniques, but in the departments it matters most, he definitely has what it takes. From a betting perspective I am going to put Pogues in a parlay and also take him to find a finish. He has yet to find a finish in front of Dana white and I think this weekend he finally does just that.
The Bets: Parisian vs. Pogues fight goes the distance -115
Prelims
Sadykhov vs. Elder Odds
Nazim Sadykhov -200; Evan Elder +165
This is the fight I am most looking forward to. Both prospects are highly talented, and this has potential of being fight of the night. Sadykhov is making his official UFC debut after finding a knockout on the Contender Series and earning a contract. A Longo-Weidman product, Sadykhov may be making his debut at the highest level, but he has been training with some of the best fighters in the world for some time now. Elder fights out of Kill Cliff MMA, which is another well-known camp full of high-level talent. Elder made his debut last year against Preston Parsons, and outside of his toughness, nothing much was on display, and he was handled thoroughly. I expect this fight to be competitive as both fighters come from respectable gyms with high-level training partners. The difference maker for each fighter will be whether either can pass his toughest test to date. For Sadykhov, it’s stepping up in competition and proving his skill set. For Elder it’s going to be whether he’s learned from his last outing and had fixed the holes in his game. Both fighters are new to the UFC so the striking and takedown numbers are still a bit skewed but if you take those numbers into consideration, than you can expect Sadykhov to perform well against Elder, who averaged 1.14 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes, absorbed five significant strikes per minute and attempted zero takedowns. Elder is a great fighter and will be looking to prove it. From a betting perspective, I am going to back Sadykhov and pay the juice and take him on the moneyline at -190. In my opinion I thought he would be closer to -250, -300 but at this price I am willing to pay to play. I also like this fight going the distance because of the durability both fighters possess. Elder might’ve lost his last fight by a landslide but he did not quit and was able to fight until the very end.
The Bets: Nazim Sadykhov ML -190/Sadykhov vs. Elder fight goes the distance +100
Emmers vs. Askhabov Odds
Jamall Emmers +110; Khusein Askhabov -135
This is another interesting bout. Emmers made his UFC debut in 2020 after successfully competing in regional promotions across North America. Emmers holds a professional record of 18 wins and 6 losses and is 1-2 in the UFC. He is coming off a loss to Pat Sabatini in 2021 where he injured his knee during the fight and was forced to tap to a heel hook. Emmers is a dynamic fighter and is very athletic. He has power in his hands and a high-level wrestling acumen. He doesn’t mind getting into a scrap because he’s confident in his ability to get himself out of trouble if the fight hits the ground. A strategy that his opponent Khusein seems to establish in his fights. The tape on Askhabov is very limited, but considering his 23-0 record and the region of the world he comes from (Russia), you can assume Askhabov is a contender and worthy of a shot on the biggest stage. I believe Emmers is the perfect test for the newcomer. He can wrestle, and because he can wrestle has the ability to keep the fighting standing. Askhabov fights out of Tiger Muay Thai, so it’s safe to assume that he is well rounded, but to me his striking is more a means to an end rather than his game plan and for that reason I believe he will encounter trouble in this fight. I can see this fight going the distance because of the durability each fighter possesses and also because of the way that Askhabov fights. Jamall emmers averages just under 10 minutes of fight time and has yet to find a finish at the highest level. I expect Emmers to be on his best game and be the toughest test to date for Askhabov. Everyone is great until they get to the big show, and for me until he proves it, I am going to side with the fighter who has been here before and has the tool set to match his opponent. Give me the underdog here, Jamall Emmers.
The Bets: Jamall Emmers ML +125/Emmers vs. Askhabov fight goes the distance +100
Carpenter vs. Ronderos Odds
Clayton Carpenter -300; Juancamilo Ronderos +250
Kicking off the prelims Saturday are two newcomers to the UFC when Contender Series alum Carpenter faces off against Ronderos. Ronderos comes into this fight after getting submitted by David Dvorak in his UFC debut in 2021. Ronderos was scheduled to fight again in 2021 but the fight was scrapped. He is 4-1 as a professional, with his only loss coming in the UFC, and on the regional scene he was 3-0 with two submission finishes. He has a “strike first and grapple when necessary” style, as he likes to use kicks and movement to create damage. Against Dvorak he was fighting on short notice and was actually scheduled to be on the Contender Series that year. A bit fast-tracked perhaps, but Ronderos showed a good pace and willingness to bang but once he was stunned everything unraveled and he was submitted. Considering he hasn’t fought in two years it’s hard to say what he looks like, but one can assume that he has made improvements and this time is at least operating after a full camp. Carpenter made his debut on the Contender Series last year in perhaps his most challenging fight to date. Up until that fight, Carpenter had only gone to decision one other time in his career with all other fights ending in the first round. Carpenter has two wins by head-kick and two by submission (one knee bar and rear naked choke). He has a grinder style of fighting and displays a granite chin, with good stand up and wrestling. Fighting out of the MMA Lab, Carpenter is as well rounded as they come — he’s an Arizona Golden Glove champion, IBJJF national champion and has also won at the highest levels of grappling. This fight in my opinion is his coming out party. Ronderos is a formidable opponent and capable of making this fight competitive to start, but once Carpenter gets the first takedown, I expect him to dominate his way to an eventual finish.
The Bets: Carpenter vs. Ronderos under 2.5 rounds -165/Carpenter by KO/TKO or submission -145
Fletcher vs. Gorimbo Odds
AJ Fletcher -275; Themba Gorimbo +210
Fletcher steps in as a replacement to face UFC newcomer Gorimbo. Fletcher is also a relative newcomer as he gained his contract through the Contender Series in 2021. Since then, Fletcher has gone 0-2 for the promotion, losing two decisions because of his gas tank. Fletcher won most of his pro fights in the first round by stoppage. In his fights against Ange Loosa and Matthew Semelsberger, Fletcher was moments away from winning, and each fighter’s durability outlasted Fletcher’s gas tank. Fletcher is not a lifelong wrestler but has a quick and efficient double leg that allows him to get fights to the ground where he can dominate and finish opponents. Fletcher averages 11 minutes of fight time and four significant strikes landed per minute. He is accurate on 50% of those strikes and averages almost three takedowns per 15 minutes. The question to be answered for Fletcher will be whether he will be able to pace himself and not gas out. The more he gasses, the less he moves his head off the center line and the more chances for damage. Luckily for him, Gorimbo wants to grapple, so this fight may favor Fletcher. Gorimbo is an interesting fighter. He almost always has the height and reach advantage over opponents, which would lead you to believe that he likes to strike and use a jab to frustrate opponents. Instead, the path he chooses to victory is with grappling and closing the distance and using his size and physicality to dominate on the ground, rather than reach and height to keep at a distance. Gorimbo’s preference to grapple is why I believe Fletcher will have success. Fletcher does not mind taking a punch to close the distance, but when his opponent also wants to close the distance and grapple, which plays right into the skillset of Fletcher. If Fletcher paces himself and doesn’t gas out before he finds a finish, I will be backing him in a parlay and for him to find a finish in Rounds 1 or 2.
The Bets: AG Fletcher in Round 1 +160/AJ Fletcher as a parlay piece
