Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a spectacular weekend in Abu Dhabi, we are back in Vegas for Kattar vs. Allen in the UFC Apex. After such a big event last weekend, the UFC should have taken a week off and let us digest UFC 280, but here we are, another week, another UFC Fight Night card to break down.
This week we have a small card that features new talent in the UFC and veterans looking to break through to the top of their divisions. This week I won’t have to go into too much detail to break down these fights. The matchups are pretty straightforward, and if the fighters I think will win stick to their game plans and paths of least resistance, I can see this being an easy, profitable night.
My bets and researched odds come from BetMGM.
Main Card
Kattar vs. Allen Odds
Calvin Kattar +100, Arnold Allen -120
Kattar/Allen is a great match up between the Nos. 6 and 7 featherweights in the world. Two fighters with a lot of experience at the pinnacle of the sport, this matchup features two well-rounded fighters with power and technique, two fighters who have been fighting for a long time and are looking to get to the top of the division. Kattar is 23-6-0 overall as a pro and 3-2 in his last five fights. Since joining the UFC In 2017, Kattar has had no layups — every time he steps into the octagon, he has fought top talent, the likes of Zabit Magomedsharipov, Dan Ige, Max Holloway and who could forget when he shocked the world and beat Giga Chikadze. Kattar carries a lot of power and is as durable as they come, He averages nearly 16 minutes of fight time while averaging 5.19 significant strikes landed per minute. Kattar also doesn’t mind taking a couple punches to deliver his own damage as he absorbs 7.13 strikes per minute. Allen on the other hand has been in the UFC since 2014. Even though he hasn’t lost yet in the UFC and currently is on an 11-fight win streak, Allen has yet to fight top talent like Kattar has and that may be the difference this weekend. Arnold is 18-1-0 overall as a pro and 5-0 in his last five, and as I mentioned above, his career in the UFC has been rather methodical and his wins have come against fighters that are no longer in the UFC or past their primes. The only notable win on Allen’s UFC record is Sodiq Yusuff, in that fight Allen looked spectacular and cashed as a slight underdog. Allen averages 3.31 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.22 strikes per minute. He is also slightly more accurate landing 42% of strikes compared to Kattar 39% landed. If there is a path to victory for Allen it will be in the form of a late takedown in each round to either steal the rounds or simply neutralize Kattar and not letting him find a groove on the feet. Allen averages 1.36 takedowns per fifteen minutes but I think the 91% takedown defense will make a difference and Kattar will find success with his jab and keeping this one standing. I expect a war and for this fight to go the distance. Kattar has never been finished in the UFC and Allen’s last lost was in 2014 by decision.
The Bet: Kattar vs. Allen FGTD -130
Means vs. Griffin Odds
Max Griffin -185, Tom Means +150
Two fighters who have seen better days step into the octagon at nearly 40 years of age, looking to put on a show for the fans in Vegas. At 18-9-0 overall and 3-2 in his last five, Max Griffin is still looking to put wins together to climb the ranks and make one final run at the belt. On the other hand, Means is 32-13-1 and, like Griffin, is 3-2 in his last five fights, with both losses coming by submission. Means doesn’t have any title shots in his future, and at 38 years old, id imagine he is still fighting only to keep the bank account healthy. With that in mind, the dirty bird is going out this weekend to make a statement and hopefully collect a fight of the night bonus check. His motivation is not to go on a title run this weekend, and I also feel that after this fight, he could be riding off into the sunset. This matchup Is not good for Means, and going up against Griffin’s tough wrestling, and power could spell trouble for the dirty bird. Means has only been knocked out once in his long career, with the rest of his losses coming from decisions or submissions. Means is durable and tough, but after nearly 50 fights, I expect Father Time to catch up to him this weekend and for Max Griffin to look spectacular. Because Means has been subbed in his career quite a bit and has been subbed twice in his last five fights, I will be taking Griffin to win straight up and also will sprinkle on him to win by submission as I see a club and sub as a real possibility in this match up.
The Bets: Max Griffin ML -185/Max Griffin by submission +1200
Cortes-Acosta vs. Vanderaa Odds
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -210, Jared Vanderaa +165
Like most of the fights on this card, this fight is easy to call and shouldn’t require too much thinking as Cortes-Acosta faces the punch-drunk Vanderaa. Averaging less than four minutes of fight time and nearly 12 significant strikes landed per minute, Cortes-Acosta should get the job done inside the distance, specifically in the first round. Vanderaa is 1-4 in his last five fights and has been stopped in three out of five fights — twice by knockout and once by submission. The mountain has seen better days and I’m afraid this weekend’s matchup against Cortes-Acosta could be his last fight. This will be Acosta’s first official UFC debut after making a statement on the Contender Series and winning in the very first round by knockout. Barring any sicknesses or injuries, I don’t and can’t see this fight going any other way than Acosta winning by knockout. It’s pretty simple — Acosta sends Vanderaa into retirement in emphatic fashion and makes his name known as the new dog in the heavyweight division.
The Bet: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins inside the distance -115
Jacoby vs. Roundtree Odds
Dustin Jacoby -175, Khalil Roundtree +140
An exciting standup battle is set to take place this weekend when Jacoby faces the powerful and always dangerous Roundtree. This matchup is very evenly matched, as both fighters use a similar style when they fight. The power edge I would have to give to Roundtree, but the technical edge would go to the former glory kickboxing vet Jacoby, who has an extensive background in the standup department. Jacoby is experienced in all aspects of fighting — if there is an Achilles heel, it has been his takedown defense, which was a problem early on during his first run in the UFC, and since returning to the UFC in 2020 has yet to taste defeat. Jacoby has proven that he doesn’t need much time nor space to get the job done and at 34 years of age is in his MMA prime. Jacoby averages 10:47 of fight time while landing 5.27 significant strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy rate. He absorbs 3.77 strikes per minute and defends 58% of takedowns coming his way. Jacoby is not a wrestler by any stretch of the imagination but has taken the fight to the ground when the opportunity presents itself and averages 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. Khalil Roundtree is 11-5-0 overall as a pro and 3-2 in his last five fights. Roundtree is currently on a two-fight win streak with stoppage wins over Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson. Khalil looked spectacular in those fights as well as very powerful as he displayed a technical side to his game that was too much for his opponents. In this matchup I believe that Roundtree has the power advantage, but the experience advantage favors Jacoby and I believe that will make the difference. Roundtree doesn’t present a threat in the takedown department and if he hopes to win this fight on the feet then id assume he is counting on his power making the difference and I don’t think a veteran like Jacoby who has fought the likes of Alex Pereira, will have an issue evading the power shots of Khalil and finding a decision win if he doesn’t knock him out first.
The Bet: Jacoby vs. Roundtree over 1.5 rounds -155
Prelims
Hawes vs. Dolidze Odds
Phil Hawes -175, Roman Dolidze +145
This is a good matchup between two middleweights looking to make a run in the division. Hawes has been talked about since before ever joining the UFC, and since joining the promotion has lost twice, once on the Contender Series and recently against Chris Curtis. In the fight against Curtis, Hawes came out on fire in the first round and looked to have finally put his whole game together. His striking and overall game was firing on all cylinders until he ran into the action man’s right hand toward the end of the first round. Hawes bounced back in a lopsided beating of Deron Winn and is now looking to continue his win streak against the always dangerous but sometimes predictable Roman Dolidze. Dolidze comes into this matchup 10-1-0 overall as a pro and 4-1 in his last five and currently on a two-fight win streak. A well-rounded fighter, Dolidze has five wins by KO/TKO, three by submission and two by decision, he has only ever loss once in his career and it happened once, he was in the UFC. The problem for Dolidze in this matchup is that everything he does well, Hawes does slightly better. Dolidze averages 2.46 significant strikes per minute while Hawes averages nearly triple at 5.68. Hawes is also more accurate landing 60% of his strikes compared to the 49% accuracy of Dolidze. Both fighters average just over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but the difference lies in the takedown defense where Hawes defends 100% of takedowns while Dolidze defends only 37% of takedowns. For Roman to win this fight he will have to make it ugly and look to gas Hawes and drag him into deep waters. In my opinion Hawes has been suspect in the past, but in this matchup he will look dominant and beat Dolidze everywhere this fight goes.
The Bet: Phil Hawes ML -175
Holmes vs. Park Odds
Joseph Holmes +200, Junyong Park -250
As with many fights on this card, this matchup between Holmes and Park is lined very wide, and in my opinion, Park should not be this big of a favorite. I fail to see why Park is such a big favorite when he is the undersized fighter having a reach and height disadvantage by more than five inches. I understand that losing to Jamie Pickett didn’t look good in Holmes’s debut, but having a short notice debut on the biggest stage in the world is no easy task and still Holmes did well until he started to fade because of his gas tank. At 6-foot-4, Holmes is one of the tallest middle weights in the division and carries power and a grappling acumen in his arsenal. I understand that the Iron turtle may hit hard and has shown the ability to fight through adversity and find wins, but this weekend I’m backing the underdog in this spot, as I believe there is too much value on the side of Holmes. I see this fight going similar to Holmes’ last fight when he won by submission and didn’t show any signs of a bad gas tank. Although because of how tough Park is, I can’t simply count him out and believe that the big difference is the threat that Holmes possess when the fight hits the mat. Park tends to grind on his opponents if he can’t knock them out and considering the fact that Holmes has never been stopped in his career, I don’t think park will be the first to do it. I think park comes out hot and lands some of his power shots but ultimately finds himself with a Loss. Give me the dog at +200 odds.
The Bet: Joseph Holmes ML +188/Holmes by submission +750
Mota vs. Durden Odds
Carlos Mota -165, Cody Durden +145
Mota makes his UFC debut on short notice, stepping in for Kleydson Rodrigues. Fighting Durden as the underdog, especially on short notice, is no easy task, but the talented and recently crowned LFA champion Mota is here to prove that he has been ready for the big show for quite some time now. Durden is known for being a finisher and a grinder. He is the type of fighter who is in your face from the beginning bell and puts on a pace that often breaks many of his opponents. Still, there is a reason Mota is so highly touted — few match his fight IQ, power and athleticism, and this weekend if he can stay within himself and not gas himself out, I believe that he will introduce himself to the UFC in spectacular fashion. Durden is as tough as they come and having him as your debut fight in the UFC is a nightmare for some. Still, I believe that Mota will do enough to negate the relentless pace of Durden, and if he doesn’t knock Durden out, I expect him to win this fight on the cards after a hard-fought fight. There is a chance that Mota tires because this fight is short notice, but I expect a fighter of the caliber of Mota to stay ready so that he doesn’t have to get prepared for a fight. Mota wins this weekend, and I will be backing him straight up on the money line. It’s a bit juiced at -165, but as a debutant, I will not take any chances and will keep it simple.
The Bets: Carlos Mota ML -175/Mota vs. Durden under 2.5 rounds -135
