Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Rozenstruik. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my most-rostered exposures, giving context to why they project so well.Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday
Alonzo Menifield
The UFC seems to have egg on its face with this one. Menifield is matched up against Askar Mozharov, who has been quite publicly exposed as having changed his name and attempted to pad his professional record. This guy looks like a complete fraud who has quit every time he has seen a slight bit of adversity. Menifield is a flawed fighter, but I expect him to have his way and was able to get some nice action down on him prior to the huge line swing.
Erin Blanchfield
Starting to look like the next big thing. Blanchfield’s grappling is top tier and her wrestling for WMMA is elite as well. She is taking on JJ Aldrich who is tough and well-rounded, but physically and athletically limited. I expect her to put up just enough resistance to allow Blanchfield to continue scoring fantasy points.
Zhalgas Zhamagulov
This is a huge step up for Jeff Molina. Zhalgas has fought way better competition and has a wrestling game that could frustrate Molina and his 37% takedown defense. I think this line should and would be close to a pick ‘em if not for the public backing that Molina has built.
Tony Gravely
Has pretty much been gold on DK in wins. Gravely is an excellent wrestler with good pace. He’s been flashing more power as his hands have continued to improve, landing knockdowns in two of his last three fights. Johnny Munoz is no slouch, but I expect Gravely to have the striking advantage and I’m not sure Munoz has the wrestling ability to take Gravely down. The way this could go south for Gravely on DK is if he lands an early TD, feels Munoz on the mat and decides he doesn’t want any parts of grappling with him.
Saint-Denis/Stolze
Saint-Denis is unpolished but he is a rabid wrestler with enormous heart. The ex-Special Forces agent knows where his advantages are and pursues the takedown relentlessly. I expect him to have some success at least early against Stolze who can at times be too accepting of getting stuck on bottom. Stolze is capable of landing a takedown or two of his own, but he should have the advantage if he can keep this fight standing.
Da Silva/Solecki
Fun matchup that should feature exciting grappling exchanges between two solid prospects. Solecki is a good wrestler and excellent grappler who has shown the ability to go for over 100 points in a win. He gets da Silva, who has been off for nearly two years and likely improving during that time. When we last saw da Silva, he was a solid wrestler who also has decent power. I expect Solecki to have success early as he usually does, and he could submit da Silva. If this fight drags out, I think it could get dicey for Solecki and wouldn’t be surprised to see da Silva win the striking exchanges relatively easily.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized, and I will be around in Discord to answer questions as well!
