UFC Fight Night DFS Picks (6/25)

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest-rostered exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.

Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is crazy well-rounded and has legit finishing ability. He takes on Nate Maness who is 3-0 in the UFC but has had to fight back from serious adversity to get there. With the skill he has, I don’t see him letting Maness off the hook once he has him hurt or compromised on the mat.

Arman Tsarukyan/Mateusz Gamrot

I favor Tsarukyan pretty heavily in what should be a really fun fight with some high-level grappling exchanges. These guys may not be household names, but you could make a case for both guys to be top five in the division. Tsarukyan has been a little more impressive on the feet and has done a better job landing damage and holding control when the fight hits the ground. Gamrot is also a crazy talented grappler who has five-round experience on his side.

Rodolfo Vieira

A popular salary saver this week taking on the surging Chris Curtis, who is coming off back-to-back early finishes. Curtis is a talented striker but hasn’t historically been such a quick finisher. We get a little bit of recency bias here, which allows us to get a good number on Vieira. Vieira’s grappling is top tier with tons of credentials. Lately he has been cleaning up his striking and working on being more efficient with his energy expenditure. His wrestling is solid, and anytime he has top position he has finishing potential.

Tafon Nchukwi

Taking on the handsome but underwhelming Carlos Ulberg, Nchukwi looks poised to potentially use the smaller cage to his benefit this week. We haven’t seen Ulberg forced to wrestle much, but Nchukwi has the ability to cage push and threaten takedowns. If he can make this fight dirty, he has a chance to wear Ulberg down and potentially even get a late finish.

Sergey Morozov

I love his wrestling, especially against the slightly built Raulian Paiva. Morozov’s striking has also greatly improved lately, and Paiva is coming off a knockdown in two straight fights. I think Morozov is likely the better fighter wherever this fight takes place.

Alan Baudot

I don’t love his upside in general, but I don’t mind him as an underdog this week. I bet him earlier in the week because I see him as the more athletic, better striker than Josh Parisian. He doesn’t grapple, so his upside is limited outside of a KO performance, which current odds suggest happens just over 35% of the time.

I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.