UFC Fight Night DFS Picks (5/21)

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira.  Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat-sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday!

Jailton Almeida

Hugely explosive Light Heavyweight prospect who is moving up to fight the overweight Parker Porter here. Porter is historically durable, but an early takedown followed by a thrashing on the mat feels pretty inevitable here. Porter’s best chance at a win is going full Homer Simpson and hoping Almeida gasses out while trying to finish him.

Omar Morales/Uros Medic

Medic gets a lot of hate for coming from the Alaska regional scene, but he is a legit credentialed kickboxer with crazy power. Morales is historically quite durable, but if this fight took place 10 times, I have no doubt Medic would land a R1 KO in at least three of them. If Morales survives the early onslaught, he has big finishing potential with wrestling upside, as Medic has shown big holes in his game when the fight gets extended. I took a stab at Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 for this fight.

Joseph Holmes/Alen Amedovski

This fight has a crazy amount of variance built in. Holmes isn’t great, but he has decent Jiu Jitsu and has shown he is willing to push through adversity. Amedovski hasn’t fought in nearly three years, and when we last saw him he was extremely unpolished. His record is filled with Round 1 KO’s, and he could certainly land that big punch on Holmes here in the smaller cage. This is another fight where if it gets extended, I expect the more well-rounded guy in Holmes to take over and probably get a finish.

Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is fighting a BJJ specialist in Polyana Viana, who has ended multiple fights via armbar from her back. Viana is dangerous, especially early, but this bakes in some hidden upside for Ricci. Viana is so comfortable on her back, sometimes even pulling guard, that she is content to give up massive amounts of control time. If Ricci can avoid the submission, she has potential to put up a big score in a decision win.

Chase Hooper

He’s still young and still looks like a high school student, but he has been away for a year working on his game and gets a handpicked matchup. Felipe Colares is crazy durable and a solid grappler himself, but he is really lacking in Fight IQ and is way too easy to take down. In a matchup that should feature lengthy grappling exchanges, a Hooper sub is on the table as an underdog here.

I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized, and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well!