MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic. I’m going with a slightly different format this week in hopes of providing a little more context to the slate as a whole. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.
High-Priced Chalk
Aleksandar Rakic
Five-round favorite. There are volume concerns here, but Rakic is able to score with TD and control time as well and gets an aging opponent.
Tatsuro Taira
Japanese prospect who has fought a low level of competition. His grappling appears legit, but with the number of unknowns surrounding him I will likely come in underweight.
Nick Maximov
Legit grappler. Facing a fellow wrestler in Andre Petroski who is known to have a poor gas tank. Multiple takedowns and a submission win in the later rounds seems like a fairly likely outcome here.
Davey Grant
Has looked great lately, but we are still talking about a 36-year-old who has broken his jaw twice. He has early knockout potential against Smolka, but if this fight makes it out of the first round it likely gets really close really fast. I’ll look to be under the field in 150 max.
Popular Mid-Priced
Manuel Torres/Frank Camacho
A matchup that has the under written all over it. Torres is a Contender Series alum who brings massive pace. He appears to be an all-out aggressive striker with good power. Camacho also likes to brawl but has some very legit grappling in his back pocket. If he tries to strike with Torres, I don’t love the Camacho side as he hasn’t been the most durable guy; however, an early TD could make Camacho look like a -500 favorite.
Andrea Lee/Viviane Araujo
High-paced fight. Potential for the winner to land 100-plus significant strikes and a few takedowns. Not too much finishing potential, but these women do have high-90-point upside.
Jan Blachowicz
In theory has better volume than Rakic, and has shown that he can land TDs as well. I have a hard time backing him against the younger, more athletic fighter though.
Low-Rostered Targets
Michael Johnson
Has found a way to lose for years, but has a massive striking advantage and good power. Early KO potential for a guy who seems to be getting written off and overlooked.
Carlos Candelario
Pretty well-rounded guy who should really test newcomer Taira. Seems to have better output than Taira, and decent BJJ of his own that could keep him out of trouble.
Louis Smolka
Veteran with good grappling and a true sense for finishing fights. Getting disrespected after a KO loss to Vince Morales, but like I mentioned above, if he can survive the early power, he has a chance to make this fight very interesting.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.
