Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.
Alexander Romanov
Same story as last week. This is a mismatch of epic proportion that should result in a quick finish unless Romanov randomly decides to play with his food.
Marlon Vera/Rob Font
(Check out the full MadLab breakdown of this fight!)
We have a really exciting main event between two guys who throw a ton of volume. I prefer Vera this week at dog price with what I view to be more finishing upside. Font was cracked a number of times against Aldo in his most recent fight, and Vera has a somewhat similar style and approach. On the flip side we’ve seen Font land over 150 significant strikes and even mix in a takedown and some control time. Both guys are likely to score high 90s, if not break 100, in a win. (I am still not stacking the main event in GPPs).
Gabe Green
I took a bet on Green earlier this week, and there’s a lot to like at this price on DK. He is a well-rounded fighter with good pace and the ability to mix in multiple takedowns as well, which gives him 100=point upside even in a decision win. I will still have some exposure to his opponent, Yohan Lainesse, who has shown legit KO power early, but little else.
Gina Mazany
Mazany is a surprisingly pretty skilled wrestler. Her opponent, Shanna Young, has shown very little ability to defend takedowns or get back up off the mat during her UFC tenure, and was even submitted by the lowly Sarah Alpar. Mazany has already said she is hunting for a submission this week, which tells me she has no thoughts of abandoning her grappling-heavy, DK-friendly style.
Quick thoughts
Da Silva/Figueiredo: Figures to be a fairly grappling heavy battle between two guys with questionable fight IQ. Da Silva is the more dynamic fighter, while Figgy appears a bit more consistent.
Grant Dawson: Dawson should have no problem getting his wrestling going early and looks solid to me assuming he doesn’t gas this time out.
Taira vs. Candelario: lots of unknown on Taira, but his grappling is definitely very good. Candelario is a legit fighter who can keep this close especially if it stays on the feet.
Meerschaert/Jotko: Jotko has very little power, but he does almost everything right which will make him difficult for Meerschaert to submit. I will look to come in under the field on GM3 this week.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized, and I will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.
