Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Columbus in Ohio. We have a 13-fight card slate this week with many of the fights expected to end by finish, so it should be a fun weekend.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Luis Saldana vs. Bruno Souza
Saldana, -120; Souza, +100
Saldana is coming off a decision loss to Austin Lingo last August. He is a technical kickboxer who uses a diverse striking attack with many different style kicks and good footwork as well. He puts on a good pace early in the fight, but my biggest issue is the cardio, as he has noticeably slowed down in many of his fights. He also fights with his hands down most of the time, which seems to work out for him, but once the cardio fades then that is a potential recipe for disaster.
Souza is coming off a decision loss to Melsik Baghdasaryan in his UFC debut at UFC 268 in November. He is the former featherweight champion over in LFA and has a well-rounded skillset. He comes from a high-level karate background and holds a black belt in BJJ as well. I expect Saldana’s kicks to be the difference maker while the fight plays out at range. However, if Souza can mix in the grappling, he should have the better gas tank to wear on Saldana over the course of 15 minutes.
This is an interesting matchup because I do favor the striking and volume of Saldana to be clearly winning the early minutes of this fight. But I believe Souza is the more well-rounded fighter and has the better cardio which makes him a live underdog in this spot. The official pick is Saldana by decision, but there are better fights to target this week on DraftKings.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Khizriev, -380; Tiuliulin, +280
Khizriev is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September of 2020. He is an undefeated 13-0 prospect out of Russia with nine of his 13 victories coming inside the distance, eight inside the first round. He is a powerful striker and smothering grappler and will have a clear grappling advantage in this matchup.
Tiuliulin is making his UFC debut on short notice and is coming off a first-round KO victory in March of last year. Tiuliulin is basically a one-dimensional power puncher as eight of his nine wins have come by knockout. He will have a short window of opportunity to hurt Khizriev on the feet, but ultimately, I am expecting Khizriev to close distance and use his clear grappling advantage to get Tiuliulin out of there early.
Khizriev by submission is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings as I am expecting this fight to end in the first round.
David Dvorak vs. Matheus Nicolau
Dvorak, -135; Nicolau, +115
Dvorak is coming off his first finish inside the octagon as he defeated Juancamilo Ronderos by submission in the first round last May. He is currently on a 16-fight win streak but is finally getting a legitimate test in Nicolau. Dvorak is a well-rounded prospect with good leg kicks and a decent pace on the feet. However, I do not rate him as some stud prospect and would like to see more of him against decent competition like this matchup. My fear for Dvorak is that I expect this fight to be competitive striking and he can be taken down so that could swing rounds.
Nicolau is coming off a decision win over Tim Elliott in October and is 2-0 since his return to the UFC. Nicolau is capable wherever the fight goes and should have a grappling advantage over Dvorak.
Overall, I think this is a low-volume fight where neither fighter puts a stamp on each round. However, Nicolau does have the potential to land takedowns and should have an advantage on the mat along with facing a much tougher level of competition to this point. For those reasons, I favor him slightly in this matchup. Nicolau by decision is the official pick.
Danaa Batgerel vs. Chris Gutierrez
Batgerel, -155; Gutierrez, +135
Batgerel is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Brandon Davis in October. After losing his UFC debut to Heili Alateng, Batgerel has finished his last three opponents, all by first-round knockout. He is a powerful striker with six of his 10 career wins coming by knockout. His defensive grappling was exposed in the Alateng fight as he was taken down three times, but he did work back to his feet well for the most part. Regardless, I do not expect Gutierrez to be shooting takedowns, so this should be a standup affair for as long as it lasts.
Gutierrez is coming off a split-decision victory over Felipe Colares in October. He has not lost a fight over his last six bouts and similar to Batgerel, his biggest weakness is giving up takedowns and defensively grappling.
While the fight plays out on the feet, we have an interesting dynamic between the constant leg kicking attack of Gutierrez versus the powerful right hand of Batgerel. But I have to favor the Gutierrez side in this matchup as the leg kicks should be there all day long and he manages distance very well so he should be able to limit the damage coming back his way from Batgerel. Gutierrez by decision is the official pick.
Karol Rosa vs. Sara McMann
Rosa, -225; McMann, +185
Rosa is coming off a dominant performance over Bethe Correia in October. She doubled her up on strikes and was never in danger at any moment of that fight. Rosa is a high-volume striker with a great pace for this division as many opponents cannot keep up with her constant output on the feet. Additionally, she is a black belt in BJJ, but I still have some concerns with her grappling against competent opponents.
McMann is coming off a third-round submission loss to Julianna Pena in January of last year. McMann turns 42 years old later this year and has lost three of her last four fights. As good as her wrestling is, she does not have the gas tank to keep up that pace for 15 minutes so without a finish on the mat, she is in trouble. Additionally, Rosa has shown some good takedown defense throughout her UFC run so far and will likely make McMann work for each takedown, which could tax her cardio even faster.
I expect McMann to have some early wrestling success as she typically does but Rosa has a massive striking advantage along with the cardio edge as well and is even a threat to submit McMann off her back if she gets lazy. Rosa by decision is the official pick.
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Marc Diakiese
Borshchev, -155; Diakiese, +135
Borshchev is coming off a highlight reel knockout victory in his UFC debut over Dakota Bush in January. He is a former kickboxing world champion and comes from a high-level striking background. He has legitimate power in his hands and five of his six career wins have come by knockout. The concern with Borshchev is that he can be taken down and controlled on the mat.
Diakiese is coming off a first-round submission loss to Rafael Alves his last time out in November and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Diakiese is a dynamic striker at times, but his volume is not enough, and he is likely to be outmatched by the technique of Borshchev. However, he does possess some wrestling skills as he averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes. He will need to mix in those takedowns and tax the cardio of Borshchev by dragging him into deep waters. I have some concerns that Diakiese’s wrestling is not as good as the statistics suggest and Borshchev’s get up game looked better in his debut than on the regional scene.
Overall, I see this as a competitive fight, but my lean is Borshchev clearly wins the striking exchanges and keeps the fight on the feet long enough to win a decision. Borshchev by decision is the official pick.
Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin
Magny, -240; Griffin, +195
Magny is coming off a decision victory over Geoff Neal last May. He has now won four of his last five fights, all by way of decision. Magny is a well-rounded veteran and a tough test for any opponent. He uses his length well with a technical jab and will mix in the takedowns as well as he averages just under two and a half takedowns per 15 minutes.
Griffin is coming off a decision victory over Carlos Condit last July. He is currently on a three-fight win streak and has a similar fighting style to Magny, just more aggressive and less technical. I expect Magny to be more measured in his approach, but the power and aggressiveness of Griffin is enough to make this a competitive fight.
Magny by decision is the official pick, but this should be a competitive fight overall, and there are better fights to target on DraftKings.
Manon Fiorot vs. Jennifer Maia
Fiorot, -450; Maia, +330
Fiorot seems to be one of the most dangerous prospects in the division with three straight victories in the UFC. She is a powerful striker with six of her eight career wins coming by knockout. Her power alone makes her dangerous against any opponent, but I still have questions about her defensive grappling if she gets taken down.
Maia is coming off a decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian in January. Maia has previously fought for the title in November of 2020 and will be a sizable step up in competition for Fiorot. However, Maia historically does not implement her wrestling enough even though she would likely have a grappling advantage here.
I expect the strength and power of Fiorot to be too overwhelming for Maia in this matchup. Fiorot by decision is the official pick but a decision victory with only striking based scoring is not going to cut it for us on DraftKings at her price making this fight mostly a fade for me.
Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik
Latifi, -190; Oleinik, +160
Latifi is coming off a split-decision victory over Tanner Boser in a fight that many people thought he may have lost. In any event, that was his first win over his last four fights, and he is historically a very low output fighter. He can mix in some takedowns, and he averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but I am not sure if he wants to go to the ground with submission specialist Oleinik.
Oleinik is coming off a decision loss to Sergey Spivac in June of last year. He turns 45 years old in June, and it is clear that he does not have the cardio to go a hard 15 minutes. He is always dangerous on the mat, and if you give him enough of an opportunity, he is capable of finding a finish.
Latifi has the power to hurt Oleinik on the feet and could land takedowns as well as he should have the better cardio. Oleinik likely has more upside on DraftKings, but the official pick is Latifi by knockout.
Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena
Brown, -110; Barberena, -110
The immortal Brown is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Dhiego Lima last June. He turned 41 in January, but his finishing ability is still something to take into account as 23 of his 25 career victories have come inside the distance. He should have a clear power advantage in this matchup against Barberena.
Barberena is coming off a decision victory over Darian Weeks in December. At this point, I am just out on him. He is not the same fighter as he once was after multiple injuries and surgeries. His good durability has also become a thing of the past as he has been knocked out in two of his last three losses and hurt by Jason Witt multiple times in his last loss. His durability is a major concern against Brown, and Brown could potentially land a couple takedowns as well.
I trust Brown to be more aggressive and think he has the higher minute winning potential along with finishing equity as well. Brown by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings this week.
Askar Askarov vs. Kai Kara-France
Askarov, -365; Kara-France, +280
We last saw Askar Askarov in the octagon last March when he defeated Joseph Benavidez by decision. Askarov is an impressive prospect with an undefeated record of 14-0. The only blemish on his resume is a draw against Brandon Moreno in his UFC debut that many people argue he deserved to get his hand raised. He is a capable striker and a good wrestler as he averages 2.75 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Kara-France is coming off an electric first-round knockout victory over Cody Garbrandt at UFC 269 in December. After being known as a decision machine early in the UFC, he has now shown the big power that he displayed on the regional scene with back-to-back knockout victories. He will have a clear power advantage on the feet, and I expect his footwork to make it hard for Askarov to win the striking exchanges. The issue with Kara-France is that he is not great off his back when taken down and although his takedown defense has held up for the most part, I expect Askarov to land some in this fight.
I expect a competitive fight where Kara-France is having the bigger moments on the feet, but Askarov likely blankets him for as long as he can on the mat. Askarov by decision is the official pick but I do think he is being overvalued in this matchup and I consider Kara-France a live underdog at a cheap price.
Alexa Grasso vs. Joanne Wood
Grasso, -225; Wood, +185
Grasso is coming off a decision win over Maycee Barber in February of last year. She is high volume boxer with sharp hands and good footwork. She gets a favorable matchup against Wood in what should primarily be a 15-minute striking match.
Wood is coming off a first-round submission loss to Taila Santos in November. She has now lost three of her last four fights and it has been quite the fall for someone that was once in line for the title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. Wood is a high-volume striker as well but her constant leg kicking attack is not going to be scoring as much as Grasso’s clean boxing combinations.
I expect Grasso to be the one moving forward and landing the bigger shots. Grasso by decision is the official pick but I am not expecting the winner of this fight to score well on DraftKings.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus
Blaydes, -400; Daukaus, +300
Blaydes returns to the octagon for a main event matchup against Daukaus. Blaydes is coming off a decision victory over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in September. Blaydes is still one of the best heavyweight fighters in the world for my money with his high-level wrestling and relentless pace.
Daukaus is coming off a knockout loss to Derek Lewis in his first main event in December which snapped a five-fight win streak. This fight is very simple to break down as with many of Blaydes fights are. Daukaus will have an early window where he needs to land something powerful to hurt Blaydes likely on one of his takedown entries. However, if he is unable to do that then Blaydes is going to smother him and break him over the course of 25 minutes.
I will have some exposure to Daukaus in case he pulls off the upset, but I plan to be over the field on Blaydes as I am expecting him to dominate this fight if he avoids getting knocked out early. Blaydes by TKO is the official pick, and he is the best play on DraftKings this week.
