UFC Columbus Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Rosa. After an awesome card in London last weekend, the UFC is back on the road in Columbus this weekend. 

We have a 13-fight card on tap for Saturday night. In the main event, heavyweight contenders Curtis Blaydes and Chris Daukaus will lock horns for a chance to remain in title contention. Although I think this weekend will be a fun card from an entertainment perspective, I tend to think the odds on most markets are pretty accurate. Despite there being thirteen fights to choose from, I’ve pulled the trigger on just one bet so far this week.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord. 

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

Karol Rosa vs. Sara McMann Odds

Rosa -220, McMann +180, DraftKings Sportsbook

Rosa enters the toughest fight of her career this weekend after getting off to a 4-0 start in the UFC with four decision victories. Rosa is a volume kickboxer who is very aggressive and moves forward consistently, as evidenced by her landing nearly eight strikes per minute. She’s grappled offensively a little bit in her fights both in the UFC and on the regional scene but is primarily a striker and has shown great cardio and strong takedown defense against her UFC opponents. Prior to the UFC, there is some tape of Rosa struggling in grappling transitions and when put on bottom or facing submission attempts, but it’s possible that she’s improved greatly since then. 

McMann has been in the UFC since 2013, following her career as an Olympic wrestler for the United States. McMann has essentially fought anybody who has been relevant at women’s bantamweight since its inception, having shared the octagon with four champions: Julianna Pena, Amanda Nunes, Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey. Stylistically, McMann is very much a wrestling specialist, landing nearly 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and still having a very elementary striking skillset despite being in MMA for the better part of the last decade. Although McMann is one-dimensional, it’s worth noting that she’s probably the best female wrestler in Women’s MMA history and has landed at least one takedown in seven consecutive fights. McMann’s largest issues don’t come from her skill, but instead her intangibles: she’s 41 years old and has only won one fight since 2017, while having struggled throughout her career when facing any adversity. 

It’s impossible to approach any McMann fight without acknowledging her massive flaws when it comes to cardio, overcoming adversity, and her one-dimensional MMA game. However, we can count on her to have outstanding wrestling even at this point in her career and that’s something that we haven’t seen Rosa tested against. It seems obvious that if this fight stays standing for any extended period of time, Rosa will dominate those moments. She is a high-volume striker with decent power and a pace that McMann simply won’t be able to keep up with. However, when McMann wins it’s typically in dominant fashion: she’s absorbed a grand total of one strike over the course of her last two victories which goes to show that when she faces women who can’t get up after one takedown each round, McMann can still dominate at this level. It’s not pretty, but I have to take the underdog shot here and force Rosa to show me that she can stuff takedowns from a wrestler of this caliber. 

Bet: Sara McMann +180 1x until +175 (Placed March 25 at FanDuel Sportsbook)