MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for an event headlined by fights with two short-notice replacements. In the main event, champion Islam Makhachev runs it back with featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in a super fight to determine the next double champ in the UFC. The co-main event features another late replacement as Kamaru Usman steps in to fight Khamzat Chimaev after Paulo Costa was pulled from the fight with a nasty elbow injury.
This fight card was already attractive with the scheduled initial bouts, but with the replacements, it feels like it got even better. Makhachev still has to defend his belt regardless of the challenger but now has the opportunity to become double champ. For Usman, a chance in a new weight class and potentially becoming a double champ with Adesanya losing his belt has reignited his career. Still, he will step into the fire against Khamzat Chimaev on 11 days’ notice. Not many humans on the planet would even consider taking the fight against Chimaev, but when you are a former champion, moments like this are what you live for, and Usman is no different.
There are 13 fights overall on the card and five on the main card. Below, I’ve broken down the main card from a betting perspective and given you guys the best bet for each fight. All odds are per BetMGM. Let’s dive in.
Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Odds
Islam Makhachev -275, Alexander Volkanovski +220
The MMA gods have spoken, and the fight that was supposed to take place in January 2024 will now take place on 11 days’ notice between Volkanovski and Makhachev. Everything about this fight is fascinating. On one end, you have Makhachev, who hasn’t lost since his UFC debut in 2015. Since then, he has beaten every opponent the UFC has put in front of him. On the other side, you have Volkanovski, who, as a featherweight, has not lost — his only loss has come in the lightweight division — attempting to become double champ. Volkanovski is 13-1 in the UFC and 26-2 overall. He averages 6.25 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbs 3.36 significant strikes per minute, and attempts 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy isn’t much to write home about, but his takedown defense and submission defense are elite.
Volkanovski captured the featherweight strap in 2019 after shocking the world and ending the reign of Max Holloway. Since then, the champ has defended the belt four times. He beat Holloway in 2020 by a split decision, Brian Ortega by decision in 2021, stopped The Korean Zombie in 2022, and then once again beat Holloway, but this time unanimously. He dared to be great earlier this year and challenged for the lightweight strap after being called out by Khabib and Islam after Islam beat Oliviera. The fight took place in Australia, and even though Islam won, many still believe that Volkanovski did enough in that fight to get the nod. He certainly put up a fight and hurt Islam on more than one occasion, but the size and jab from Islam hurt Volkanovski, and control time on the ground for Islam also worked against Volkanovski.
If Volkanovski can negate takedowns for an entire round or, at the least, bounce back up and limit the ground control. He possibly could’ve won the first fight. Either way, it was a great effort that exposed Islam and showed how he could be beaten. This time, the tables have turned as Islam has the support, the hometown crowd, and, once again, coach Khabib in his corner. Khabib wasn’t present for their first match, and perhaps it hindered the game plan a bit for Islam. This time, Volkanovski is fighting on short notice and coming off a surgery that most likely needs more healing time. As the saying goes, “Fighters fight,” and it seems like for both fighters, sooner is better than later to settle this rivalry.
For Volk, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain in this situation, and stepping in on short notice for a big payday is a fighter’s dream. While Islam has more support this time, he also has more pressure. Having Khabib in his corner will keep him level-headed and on the game plan. He may not be able to finish Volkanovski, but with constant pressure, he can use his jab and reels to set up the takedowns and win on the scorecards. Volkanovski is impossible to submit, even more so now with world-class grappler coach Craig Jones in his corner. Yet if Volk isn’t able to get some of his offense wrestling going, then it’s going to look a lot like the first matchup but without the brawling. Khabib in his corner is a significant factor in how Islam performs, and I think he limits the stand-up and takes this fight to the ground where he can utilize his size advantage and grapple.
Islam averages 2.36 significant strikes landed per minute. That’s far less than Volkanovski’s output. The upside to his striking is his defense, as he absorbs barely any damage, eating 1.27 significant strikes per minute. He has the edge on the ground, averaging nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes, attempting 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes, and defending 90% of takedown attempts. From a betting perspective, I will side with Islam because Khabibs is in his corner; he has the size advantage, and the short notice for Volkanovski is not ideal. With an entire camp, I’d probably be siding with Volkanovski. But for this one, it’s all about “Father’s Plan.”
Bet: Makhachev in Rounds 4, 5 or decision +120 | Makhachev/Volkanovski over 4.5 rounds -130
Chimaev vs. Usman Odds
Khamzat Chimaev -285, Kamaru Usman +225
Like the main event, the co-main event features a short-notice fighter stepping in to replace an injured fighter. The short-notice fighter is Kamaru Usman, and the wounded combatant he’s replacing is Paulo Costa. Costa was slated to fight Khamzat Chimaev in what was sure to be exciting. Now former welterweight champion Usman is stepping up in weight to keep the show afloat and give fight fans a fight they perhaps could’ve only imagined, considering each fighter’s career trajectory and Usman talking about retirement before his last fight. Usman has been with the UFC since 2015. He’s 15-2 in the UFC and 20-3 overall. Most of his losses were recent to Leon Edwards in their two championship bouts.
Outside of those fights, Usman had never lost in the UFC. Usman was champion for three years before he lost the belt and, during his reign, defended his belt against Jorge Masvidal, Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns, with each performance being more dominant than the last. Usman utilizes an aggressive wrestling style that, over time, has included improved striking. For this fight, he will have to lean on his wrestling and, most importantly, durability to withstand the chaotic storm that is Khamzat Chimaev. Usman averages 4.46 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbs 2.75 significant strikes and averages nearly three takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Usman’s fights are fun but lack excitement because of his methodical approach. He won’t have the opportunity to be methodical here because Khamzat fights like he’s been fired out of a cannon. He also knows that Usman is fighting on 11 days’ notice, and his gas tank may be limited.
With an entire training camp, I could see Usman being a formidable challenge. But coming off back-to-back losses and mentioning retirement amid those fights tells me that he’s collecting a paycheck and enjoying the views of Abu Dhabi. His resume qualifies him for this fight, but Khamzat has been training for three months and perhaps even before that, and Usman has had 11 days to prepare seriously. From a betting perspective, the pick is Khamzat to find a finish and be too much to handle for Usman.
Bet: Khamzat by KO/TKO or submission -110 | Khamzat in Round 1 or 2 +110
Walker vs. Ankalaev Odds
Johnny Walker +285, Magomed Ankalaev -350
Walker is riding the lighting as he steps into the octagon on a three-fight win streak with the opportunity to clinch a title shot. Officially making his debut in 2018, Walker immediately made a statement with violent wins over Khalil Rountree Jr., Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunkov. He would immediately run into a wall with back-to-back losses to Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov. The following two years would be filled with ups and downs and for a moment, had Walker on a chopping block. Now, with three consecutive wins since being knocked out by former champ in Jamhal Hill, Walker is in Abu Dhabi with a chance to rewrite his story as an underdog in a winnable fight. Magomed Ankalev is no walk in the park and, like Walker, is currently on a winning streak. With a win over Walker, Ankalaev pushes his win streak to 10 wins and will be next in line for a title shot.
Ankalaev hasn’t looked untouchable in his last few fights, and someone as unpredictable as Walker can cause some problems for the Russian. Walker has the height (3 inches) and reach (7 inches) advantage, which he utilizes well to point fight and keep his opponents at the end of his strikes. He also has a 60% takedown defense, but it may not be enough for Ankalaev, who averages one takedown per 15 minutes while defending 86% of takedowns coming his way. The striking numbers are the same, and while many may think that Ankalev can only wrestle, he is also a world-class striker. His problem will be closing the distance and staying safe. Ankalev has been dropped at least once in his last three fights, and while his durability helped him stay in the fight, a mistake against Walker could end ugly. In their most recent fights, both fighters in question have been a bit overly patient, and while I don’t think a finish comes early in this fight. I believe Ankalaev closes the distance early and often and gets to his wrestling to limit the movement and length of Walker. Even if he could stand with Walker, Ankalaev’s durability has been questionable, so getting this fight to the ground and staying out of trouble is imperative. A show for the fans is great, but when you are fighting for a title shot, just getting the win is enough.
Bet: Magomed Ankalaev ML and over 1.5 rounds -110
Alves vs. Aliskerov Odds
Warlley Alves +445, Ikram Aliskerov -650
Warlley Alves makes his debut in the middleweight division against Russian newcomer Ikram Aliskerov. After spending nearly a decade at welterweight, the former TUF Brazil champion moves up in weight, hoping to find new momentum because up until now, it’s been ups and downs with more downs for Alves. 2-3 in his last five fights, Alves is trending toward the chopping block if he doesn’t make changes. Lucky for him, the UFC likes him and has decided to match him up with Aliskerov, whose only loss in 15 fights was to Khamzat Chimaev.
If you didn’t sense the sarcasm, then I’ll say it plainly: Alves is being fed to a wolf and will most likely be put to pasture after this weekend. Alves had a promising start to his career and kicked off his first four fights with wins. Then, along the way, he seemed to stumble and never stayed consistent enough to produce any value. Alves averages 10 minutes of fight time, 3.21 significant strikes landed per minute and has a wicked guillotine. His stand-up leaves much to be desired, but he does have power in his hands, so if he connects with a wild looping shot, it has the potential to do damage.
Still, Aliskerov brings significant advantages to this fight, especially in the reach department. He has a four-inch reach advantage and also nearly quadruples the output that Alves throws. He does absorb quite a bit of damage but has shown to be durable enough to rely on his wrestling when things get hairy. Another significant advantage for Aliskerov is his wrestling and how he nearly triples the takedown average of Alves. Both fighters look to take the fight to the ground for their game plans, which makes it difficult for Alves to have success against the better wrestler in front of a hometown crowd. The pick is for Aliskerov to get it done inside the distance and keep his 100% finish rate intact in the UFC.
Bet: Ikram Aliskerov by submission or decision -125
Nurmagomedov vs. Gafurov Odds
Said Nurmagomedov -225, Muin Gafurov +185
With no relation to former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, Said Nurmagomedov continues to wade through the shark-infested waters of the bantamweight division. This time, he welcomes newcomer Muin Gafurov to his second fight in the UFC. Gafurov first made himself known after a split decision lost to Chad Anhelinger on the Contender Series, showing he had potential but not enough to get a contract. After two consecutive wins on the LFA regional circuit, he made his debut earlier this year, and after an impressive first round, his gas tank and low-output style led to a loss.
Gafurov does have power in his hands and also has strong wrestling that should do well early. Still, the deeper the fight goes, I expect Nurmagomedov to use his striking to pick Gafurov apart and his takedown defense to negate Gafurov’s grappling. Nurmagomedov isn’t your typical Dagestani who leads with his wrestling. Instead, Nurmagomedov leads with flashy leg kicks and striking combinations but does have a devastating Guillotine that he’s used to finish opponents. Muin will pose a threat early for Nurmagomedov and make it difficult to get any strikes going. Still, eventually, Nurmagomedov should settle into his distance and do enough damage standing that the takedown attempts from Gafurov don’t mean much when the dust settles. The pick is for Nurmagomedov to find a finish in the third or win on the scorecards.
Bet: Said Nurmagomedov in Round 3 or decision +130
