Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The UFC is in Sydney, Australia, for a main event this week headlined by middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and challenger Sean Strickland. Adesanya is back after defeating his long-time rival Alex Pereira and recapturing his belt. Strickland is on a two-fight win streak, and with a third win this weekend, he can become champion.
The co-main event features Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov, two heavyweights looking to climb back to the mountaintop. There are five main card fights and 12 overall — eight fights on the card feature fighters from down under, so the building will be rocking. Below, I break down the main card from a betting perspective and give you my best bet for each fight. All odds are from BetMGM.
Adesanya vs. Strickland Odds
Israel Adesanya -700, Sean Strickland +460
This main event spot feels like everything but challenging for the champion. If anything, it’s the perfect fight for Adesanya to create a highlight for the fans of Sydney. Now, while I sound dismissive of Strickland, I do not neglect that he is a seasoned veteran who undoubtedly deserves this opportunity. He has been fighting in the UFC since 2014, and while it may have taken some time to become a household name, Strickland has always been a challenge for anyone stepping across the octagon from him. Strickland is well-rounded, having the base to wrestle and do jiujitsu, but he usually opts to stand with his opposition, pushing relentless pace and pressure. He averages 14 minutes of fight time, 5.86 significant strikes landed per minute, and averages one takedown per 15 minutes. Early in his career, he leaned on his aggression and wrestling to get the job done, but as of late and after many rounds of sparring, Strickland has made his money with his kickboxing, aggression, and sheer will to compete.
His last two wins over Imavov and Abus Nurmagomedov showed improvements, but Strickland did eat a lot of strikes in those fights, and if his opponents had better gas tanks, they’d probably send Strickland packing. Still, Strickland has earned his shot and now has the opportunity to shine under the bright lights for however long it lasts. I understand that Sean looked good against Abus, but if Dricus Du Plessis doesn’t hurt his foot, then Sean has to wait some more for his shot. Against Du Plessis, I’d probably give Sean a better shot, but against a technician like Adesanya, I can only give him a puncher’s chance. Maybe he decides to lean on his wrestling and take that path, but Sean is outsized in height and reach, and I expect Adesanya to keep the fight standing at the end of his punches and kicks.
Adesanya averages nearly 18 minutes of fight time and four significant strikes landed per minute and attempts virtually zero takedowns. He was exposed at the light heavyweight level when he took on Yan, but no one at the middleweight level can take the champ down and control him long enough for it to mean something. He defends 77% of takedowns coming his way, and with how high Strickland leaves his chin when he throws hooks, I expect Adesanya to set the trap and send him packing. From a betting perspective, the money line on Adesanya is juiced to the gills, so I will attack with props for a better price. I’m going to take Adesanya to win by ko at +110. Because I think that Strickland is durable enough to make it into the championship rounds, I’ll take Adesanya to win in Rounds 4 or 5 or by decision at -120.
Bet: Adesanya in Rounds 4, 5 or decision -120
Tuivasa vs. Volkov Odds
Tai Tuivasa +200, Alexander Volkov -250
Tuivasa has always been a fan favorite, regardless of the outcome of his fights. Tuivasa never finds himself in a boring fight. In 13 UFC fights, seven of his eight wins have come by way of knockout. Tuivasa isn’t the most technical fighter, but what he lacks in skill, he makes up for in grit. Tuivasa was on a five-fight win streak spanning from 2020 to 2022, which led him to a main event spot in Paris against Ciryl Gane. The fight would go on to be the fight of the night, even though Tuivasa was able to stun Gane. The fight was one-way traffic until the finish in the third round. A bounceback fight against Sergei Pavlovich was a winnable situation for Tuivasa, but he was stopped violently in the first round. Trying to avoid a third loss in a row, Tuivasa now fights a former Bellator champion and fighter from Russia, Volkov.
Volkov has been in the UFC since 2016 and has fought a who’s who at heavyweight. He is 10-4 overall in the UFC, with six wins by knockout and four by decision. Volkov is one of the tallest fighters on the roster, coupled with an 80 -inch reach and superior kickboxing. His primary weapons include leg kicks, teep kicks, and devastating power in his hands. Volkov hasn’t been knocked out since 2018, and before that, it was way back in 2013. He was stopped recently by Tom Aspinal, but that was by submission, and Tuivasa is by no means a submission threat.
Volkov is coming off two first-round finishes, and while I do think this fight goes beyond the first round, I still believe that Volkov eventually finds a finish in an exciting battle.
Bet: Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO or submission -120
Kape vs. Dos Santos Odds
Manel Kape -400, Felipe Dos Santos +305
Kape hasn’t had luck finding an opponent lately, as three ranked opponents have pulled out of fights in 2023. Kape made a name for himself as a knockout artist in Japan. Since joining the UFC, his approach has done all but impress, leading to a volume of dull contests. Now he is on a three-fight win streak, with two of the three wins coming by way of stoppage in the first round.
Manel is looking to make a statement this weekend. Perhaps the canceled fights could’ve helped him display his progression at the highest level, but an impressive win over David Dvorak last year and a win over debutant Felipe Dos Santos this weekend. “Starboy” can get back on track and keep hunting for that ufc gold. While Dos Santos can put up a fight in this debut, Kape’s skill, athleticism, and, most notably, his power will be too much for the young Brazilian. The pick is Kape to get the job done inside the distance.
Bet: Manel Kape in Round 3 or decision +200
Tafa vs. Lane Odds
Justin Tafa -220, Austen Lane +178
The heavyweight division makes another appearance on the main card when Tafa and Lane run it back after their initial meeting was cut short because of an eye poke. Tafa is currently 3-3 in the UFC and 2-2-1 in his last five. Only two of the three losses on his pro record have come by decision. Those losses are the only time he’s ever been to a decision, as every win has been inside the distance. Tafa is a dangerous kickboxer with dynamite in his limbs. At times, he may have an overly patient approach, looking for the perfect punch, but this matchup provides the ideal partner who will surely bring the volume.
Lane is a former NFL superstar who found his best success playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars. After his NFL career, he transitioned to MMA and fought in the Dana White Contender Series. Things didn’t go his way against another former NFL athlete, but Lane would be given another chance in a debut last year in Jacksonville. He was slated to fight Tafa in the debut, but an eye poke postponed the bout. Now, in Australia, this fight carries a bit more pressure for Lane as he walks into enemy territory for the contest. From a betting perspective, I’m picking Tafa to find a finish early in this fight. Lane is athletic and capable of finding wins over lesser talent, but this matchup is dangerous. He does have some good ideas in contests, but those ideas usually lead to brawls, and getting into a brawl with Tafa will not end well. The pick is Tafa to end Lane in Round 1.
Bet: Justin Tafa ML and under 1.5 rounds -150
Pedro vs. Turkalj Odds
Tyson Pedro -110, Anton Turkalj -110
The main card kicks off with light heavyweight division action. Turkalj steps into the octagon for the third time officially — this time, he faces off against Pedro. Pedro made his initial debut back in 2016, and after going 1-4 from 2016 to 2018, Pedro would be sidelined by injuries for the following three years. He returned in 2022 and found success against Harry Hunsucker and Ike Villanueva. He is displaying a new wrinkle in his game but is still the same fighter. Pedro is best in the first round, and any of the losses on his record have come against fighters who can drag him into deep waters and limit his striking.
While this matchup is winnable for Pedro, his wins over Hunsucker and Villaneuva may have still shown his power, but neither of those guys tried to or can grapple like Turkalj. Turkalj can still go in there and get jabbed into oblivion, but if he manages to get out of the first round, I expect him to make this fight ugly enough to weigh on the gas tank of Pedro and grind his way to a win. Anton Turkalj has good jiu-jitsu and is very durable. He also has power and wins by knockout in the past but for him to win this fight he’s going to have to wrestle and close the distance. Pedro is live in round one, and once it goes past that, I expect “The Pleasure Man” to pour on the pressure and test Pedro’s 52% takedown defense.
Bet: Anton Turkalj ML -110
