MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The UFC is back in Boston this weekend for another PPV event that is sure to go down in the history books. The main event features Sean O’Malley and current bantamweight king Aljamain Sterling. Sterling is fresh off a win over former double-champ Henry Cejudo. O’Malley is fresh off a split decision win over the former champion and Sterling’s rival, Petr Yan.
The co-main event features two straw weights looking to battle for the belt over five rounds. Weili Zhang and Amanda Lemos should be fireworks from the sound of the bell. For Zhang, this is her first title defense after recapturing the gold from Carla Esparza last year. Amanda Lemos made her debut in the UFC in 2017 and, since then, has gone 7-2 overall after beating Marina Rodriguez her last time out. She earned her chance at the belt. Also on the card is rising star Ian Garry Machado as he continues to climb the ranks. This time he toes the line against the Haitian Sensation, Neil Magny. Magny is stepping in on short notice to replace Geoff Neal.
The main card has five fights, and below I will break down each fight and give you guys a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Sterling vs. O’Malley Odds
Aljamain Sterling -250, Sean O’Malley +200
A grappler vs. striker battle of the highest order is on the menu this weekend. Sterling looks to defend his belt for a fourth time. This time against the highest-level striker he has fought in some time. You would think it would be fighters like TJ Dillashaw or Petr Yan. But the truth is that in those matchups, Sterling’s size and specialty overcame everything either opponent had for him. Dillashaw was way past his prime and injured in their last fight, and Yan was doing well in their first matchup until he landed the illegal knee. In the rematch, Aljo backpacked Yan and neutralized his striking, and the gap in wrestling was too much to make up for Yan. What makes this fight different is the fact that Sterling doesn’t have the size advantages that he’s had in the past.
O’Malley is the fighter with the height (4 inches) and reach (2 inches) advantages in this fight. For a striker like O’Malley, who masterfully keeps opponents at the end of strikes, that’s the edge that can win him the war this weekend. The problem with O’Malley is his wrestling and takedown defense. Even though he has improved every time he steps into the octagon, I’m not sure that once Sterling locks his hands around O’Malley, he can get back up or even survive a submission attempt. The first few attempts may be negated, but eventually, with pace and pressure, I expect Sterling to backpack O’Malley as he did Yan. There are two clear paths to victory here. For O’Malley, he would need to keep the fight standing and use his superior movement and striking to combat the funky standup and takedown attempts of Sterling. For Sterling, he needs to grapple and limit the amount of space he gives O’Malley. The more Sterling can keep this fight in close quarters and against the fence, the better this fight goes for him. There’s also the fact that while O’Malley is great and earned this spot, his level of competition doesn’t match up to Sterlings. For example, every fighter that Omalley has fought, except for Marlon Vera, has been cut from the UFC, which indicates a low level of competition on his climb to the top. Therefore, I will side with the champ and back him to defend his belt for a fourth time.
Bet: Sterling in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision +150
Zhang vs. Lemos Odds
Weili Zhang -325, Amanda Lemos +255
The co-main event features one of the most exciting female divisions in the UFC. Champions like Jessica Andrade have ruled the strawweight division in the past. That is until Weili Zhang challenged Andrade for the belt and stopped her in under two minutes in the first round. Zhang is the perfect blend of violence, technique and durability. She came into the UFC with a lot of hype behind her and right away impressed, taking out her first three opponents. Those three initial wins would set her up to challenge Andrade for the belt. It only took two minutes for Zhang to beat Andrade and become the first Chinese athlete to become champion. Zhang then made her first title defense against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. That fight would be one of the best MMA fights in the history of the UFC, man or woman. It wasn’t until she fought Rose Namajunes that Weili would meet her match and lose, snapping a 21-fight win streak. She would immediately get a rematch and once again fail. 2021 was a lousy year for Weili, but 2022 would mark the beginning of her road to the belt. She retired Jedrzejczyk and then recaptured the belt from Carla Esparza.
Now Lemos is first in line to challenge Zhang for her new belt. Lemos is a dangerous striker from Brazil. She made it to the UFC back in 2017 and since then has gone 7-2 with three wins by sub, two wins by sub and two wins by decision. Amanda has power, speed, and the ability to grapple. Her problem is her lack of output and tendency to over-commit sometimes, leading to mistakes. Her level of competition also wasn’t the best leading up to this fight. She met her match against Andrade and got subbed in the first round. She then took out two more fighters to bounce back and earn her shot at the title. I’m going to side with Weili here. Of course, anything can happen when you fight with four-ounce gloves, but I’m confident that this version of Weili being the champ will be the best yet, and Lemos is yet to reach her level.
Bet: Weili Zhang in Rounds 1-3 +105
Magny vs. Garry Odds
Neil Magny +380, Ian Garry -500
The UFC’s newest star makes another appearance in the octagon this weekend. This time he toes the line against longtime vet and journeyman Magny. Garry was officially supposed to fight Geoff Neal, but an injury sidelined Neal, and almost as if he manifested it, Garry got the fight he wanted against Magny. For a long time, Magny has made a name for himself as the prospect killer. Anytime a fighter wants to move up in weight, he sends them back down humbled, and any hype trains coming into the UFC quickly get derailed. Magny is not a specialist in any martial art, but he is a complete MMA fighter who knows how to win. He utilizes his 80-inch reach advantage to poke and prod at his opponents. He also has a grinder mentality, which he uses to put pace and pressure on his opponents. Magny is 21-9 overall in the UFC, with five wins by ko, two wins by submission, and 14 wins by decision. Those 14 wins by decision indicate that Magny has survived since 2013 in the UFC by simply knowing how to win. He’s not flashy, doesn’t have scary power, and I’m convinced that if he doesn’t beat many of the up-and-comers and hype trains, he possibly wouldn’t be with the promotion.
A title run isn’t in the picture for Magny, at 36 years old. He would have to go on a hell of a run and then take out the king at the top, Leon Edwards. Anything is possible, but I just don’t see it happening the same way I don’t see him beating Ian Garry this weekend. Garry has the measurables and skills to match the game of Magny. While he may be the most formidable challenge to date for Garry, Magny is going to have to lean on his wrestling to get the job done or suffer getting finished. Garry doubles the number of significant strikes that Magny throws. Garry is also more accurate and defends takedowns at a better rate than Magny. He has also shown resilience in challenging situations and durability when rocked with power. Ian Garry is the future, and while he may lose his 0 eventually, I don’t think it will happen this weekend.
Bet: Garry in Round 3 or by decision +140
Vera vs. Munhoz Odds
Marlon Vera -200, Pedro Munhoz +168
Marlon Vera is back on the horse after losing to Cory Sandhagen earlier this year. That loss would snap a four-fight win streak and momentarily derail his run at the title. Now he takes on “The Young Punisher” Munhoz. A longtime vet, Munhoz is coming off a win over Chris Gutierrez that snapped a two-fight losing streak for him. Munhoz is stepping in as a late replacement; Vera was initially supposed to fight Henry Cejudo but a shoulder injury sidelined Cejudo. Now with a sizable height and reach advantage, Vera should be able to utilize his low-volume high power style against Munhoz. Vera averages just over four significant strikes landed per minute. His low volume has given him the reputation of a fighter who starts slow and revs up the deeper the fight gets. Against Frankie Edgar, Vera was behind on the scorecards and ended the battle with a teep kick to the face of Edgar. The moment would go viral, and Vera would finally capture the eyes and attention of the fans. He became a household name and fan favorite and now has the opportunity to get back on track after his last fight, where he displayed a lack of urgency and an overly patient approach.
This time, he won’t have to be patient or look for a way in because Munhoz will provide enough pace and pressure to create a car crash. Munhoz takes one to give one, and his durability is undoubtedly his best asset. He has never been knocked out or submitted. This is why if Vera can find a finish, it will be very impressive and indeed send a message, but overall I’m going to side with Vera to win by late finish in the third or by decision. His power, plus size, should give Munhoz enough trouble to stifle his approach.
Bet: Marlon Vera in Round 3 or by decision -125
Bautista vs. Blackshear Odds
Mario Bautista -225, Da’mon Blackshear +183
Kicking off the main card is a banger between Bautista and the seven-day late replacement, Blackshear. Blackshear is looking to make a quick turnaround after submitting Jose Johnson and becoming the third fighter ever to hit a Twister submission in the UFC. Blackshear took minimal damage last week, so coming into this fight week, he should still be fresh and capable of performing well. Blackshear is athletic and fights behind leg kicks and strikes that create chaos and opportunities for him to scramble and look for a finish. He can stand and knock out his opponent, as two of his wins have come through KO. But the majority of his wins come by submission (%64), and if he hopes to have success, I think he’s going to have to create enough chaos and hope to find a finish when the dust settles. In other words, I don’t think it will be a successful night for Blackshear. Bautista is just as good as Blackshear on the ground, if not better, and he also has the edge in the striking department. Did I mention this is on a seven-day turnaround for Blackshear? Bautista outpaces and lands more volume than black shear this weekend, and when it hits the mat, I believe he does enough to neutralize Blackshear — Bautista by a late finish in the third or by decision.
Bet: Blackshear/Bautista over 2.5 rounds -115 | Bautista by decision +180
