MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The first PPV of the second half of the UFC season kicks off with a bang Saturday when the Lioness Amanda Nunes defends her belt against No. 1 contender Irene Aldana. Nunes is coming off a win over Juliana Peña where she recaptured her double champ status and now is back to defend her belt and perhaps ride off into the sunset once and for all. Amanda has done it all and has broken many records. Will this be her last ride if she wins? Or will she be back if Aldana can pull off an upset and become Mexico’s fourth champion?
The co-main event welcomes the return of former champion Charles Oliveira against longtime contender and UFC bet Beneil Dariush. Dariush has been on a tear and is on an eight-fight win streak. Both men are capable, durable, and ready to put on a show, and in a three-round fight, I don’t think we even get close to the judges. All fighters on this card are out to put on a show as five Canadian fighters take the stage in Vancouver.
Below I break down my favorite fights from the weekend and produced and best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Nunes vs. Aldana Odds
Amanda Nunes -325; Irene Aldana +255
Nunes possesses a well-rounded skill set and is known for her devastating knockout power, which has resulted in numerous impressive finishes throughout her career. She’s an excellent striker and grappler, and she utilizes her Brazilian jiujitsu background to get submissions and maintain control on the ground.
Aldana has a boxing background and has established herself as a skilled striker. She’s also shown good footwork and head movement, and several of her victories have come via knockout. Aldana has gotten better in the ground game as well, with solid takedown defense and grappling skills.
This fight will come down to how well Nunes can grapple. She’s an aged champion who has spent most of her career fighting five-round bouts. Eventually, no matter how invincible a fighter may seem, there’s always someone out there that will beat them. For Nunes, her first warning was Peña, who in my opinion, should have never gotten passed the first fight, but lesson learned, and Amanda did what great champions do and got her belt back. Aldana is an actual test and, in my opinion knocking on opportunity’s door at the right time. Aldana is the better boxer with the size and strength to deal with Nunes. The only edge Nunes has in this fight is experience, but if she comes into this fight expecting to cruise. I think she’s in for a rude awakening. People expect violence in this one, and so do I, but I don’t expect it to end before it gets to the judges. Aldana has never been stopped in the ufc, and while I do think she can win, I don’t think she will stop Amanda, and if she does, then it’ll be in the later rounds when Amanda is frantically shooting takedowns. The pick for me is the distance prop, as I believe both women have the will and durability to beat each other up and leave it up to the judges’ decision.
Bet: Aldana vs. Nunes fight goes the distance +195/Irene Aldana ML +255
Oliveira vs. Dariush Odds
Charles Oliveira +125; Beneil Dariush -145
Oliveira has an impressive record as a pro with excellent submission skills — he holds the record for most submissions in UFC history. As a striker, he has developed solid techniques that complement his grappling skills.
Dariush is a well-rounded fighter with a solid grappling background. He’s versatile, able to transition between striking and grappling, and he’s shown improvements in his stand-up game.
In my opinion, Dariush missed his ride to the top a couple of fights ago. With his fighting style and tendency to get into wars when he fights, the damage he can take and continue to push will eventually catch up. That is where both of these fighters are. The difference is that Dariush is still motivated to get his shot at the title. Oliveira has already slayed his dragon and is coming back this weekend not to prove he can still be champ but to quiet the doubters that believed his championship run was a fluke. I’m a fan of Dariush, but he doesn’t do anything unusual to breeze past Oliveira. This fight will come down to who is tougher and willing to walk through fire. It’s a coin flip; for me, I’m siding with the underdog in Oliveira because while people praise him for his grappling, he also possesses power and good kicks, which could lead to heated exchanges and scrambles on the ground that end with Oliveira on top when the dust settles, as fans were in for a treat.
Bet: Charles Oliveira ML +125
Ige vs. Landwehr Odds
Dan Ige -260; Nate Landwehr +255
Ige has a background in wrestling and Brazilian jiujitsu. He’s known for pushing the pace and loves close-quarters combat where he can use his grappling skills. Landwehr, meanwhile, is aggressive and relentless and possesses a durable chin. His striking is his main strength, but he’s shown competent grappling skills as well. He made his name fighting in Russia, where he would get outwrestled but come back just by outlasting opponents. He’s taken a similar approach in the UFC, and he’s improved in every fight but has had to battle back in wars of attrition. Landwehr is good, but there hasn’t been a fight where he’s dominated from pillar to post.
Ige is the best Landwehr has faced thus far, and while I expect him to do well, I can’t see him coming back in this fight once he falls behind. Ige is too seasoned, and this type of fight lends itself well to Dan Ige, who is no stranger to wars of attrition.
Bet: Ige vs. Landwehr fight doesn’t go the distance -135
Anders vs. Barriault Odds
Eryk Anders +110; Marc-Andre Barriault -130
Former football player Anders moved from the gridiron to the octagon in 2015, debuting in the UFC in 2017. He uses his football background as a fighter, using his strength and explosiveness. He’s improved in his conditioning over his career as well, making that a real part of his skillset now.
“Power Bar” Barriault should have an extra chip on his shoulder this weekend, fighting in front of his home crowd. He has displayed knockout power throughout his career. He and his heavy hands often look to land powerful strikes to finish his opponents, but that can leave him susceptible to counterattacks.
From a betting perspective, this fight is interesting— if the Anders of old shows up, then this should be a good fight for Barriault to drag Anders into deep waters and find a finish once he gets tired. The problem for me is that I don’t think Anders will fade, and for that reason, I think he may edge out the Canadian and, in pivotal moments, find the takedown or strike that makes the difference. Athletically, Anders is better, and Barriault at times, can get caught taking pictures. I could see this fight ending in the third round or by decision. Either way, Anders wins.
Bet: Eryk Anders ML +110/also sprinkle on Anders in Round 3 or by decision +225
Imavov vs. Curtis Odds
Nassourdine Imavov -150; Chris Curtis +127
With backgrounds in kickboxing and Muay Thai, Imavov is a well-rounded fighter. He’s good with his hands and his feet and has demonstrated solid grappling skills. He has improved his takedown and submission defense over his career as well.
Curtis has knockout power but is also competent as a grappler and on the ground. He doesn’t feature much of a submission game but has showcased good submission defense.
Curtis’ never-give-up attitude has made him a fan favorite, but at 36, I think his best years are behind him. He isn’t fighting for a title shot, nor is he on the path to a title shot soon. On the other hand, Imavov does have a future in the UFC that possibly involves a title shot. He’s 27 and has only been in the UFC for three years now. With a win this weekend, he can get back in the win column and back on track for the title shot. Curtis is always live because of his power, but his game plan at this point is evident, and he doesn’t present much variety, which will make it easy for Imavov to see what’s coming and get the win.
Bet: Nassourdine Imavov ML -150/Imavov by KO/TKO or decision -125
Dvorak vs. Erceg Odds
David Dvorak -275; Steve Erceg +220
Dvorak amassed an impressive undefeated record in the European regional MMA scene before landing with the UFC in 2020. He has crisp boxing techniques and uses them and his strong grappling skills to maintain a relentless pace in his fights.
Australian newcomer Erceg is an aggressive fighter with good boxing, footwork, and output. Ironically his best tool comes on the ground with his jiujitsu. Erceg has won his fights by submission 67% of the time. The problem for Erceg is that he’s up against a better version of himself. There are levels in this game, and this debut will be a tough one for Steve. Give me Dvorak to find a finish in the second or third round. The moneyline (-275) for Dvorak is a bit juiced, so I went with the distance prop and took it for plus money (+111).
Bet: Dvorak vs. Erceg fight doesn’t go the distance +111
