Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
UFC 287 marks the fourth time Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira will meet in combat. They fought twice in the world of kickboxing, and now for the second time, they will face off in the realm of MMA. Will Izzy finally get over this hump in his career? Or will Pereira continue to be the blemish in the otherwise perfect UFC career of Adesanya?
In the co-main event, Jorge Masvidal steps into the octagon to face former teammate Gilbert Burns. This fight is the fork in the road for Masvidal, where a win or a loss determines his future with the promotion. Another exciting matchup and perhaps my favorite fight on the card features Rob Font and rising star Adrian Yanez. We also have the return of the young phenom Raul Rosas Jr. as he looks to continue his run toward the top as the youngest fighter in the UFC ever to do it.
This card is stacked from top to bottom, and as always, I will be breaking down my favorite fights from the prelims and MainCard and producing the best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Adesanya vs. Pereria Odds
Israel Adesanya -140; Alex Pereira +115
Adesanya and Pereira square off for the second time in the UFC and the fourth time overall. Izzy has always looked and been a superstar since his first moments in the kickboxing ring and UFC octagon. Still, in every story, there is always a villain, and for Izzy, his name is Alex Pereira. Pereira is one of the scariest strikers on the planet, possessing the type of power in all limbs that can shut the lights off at any moment. He is also the former and only ever two-division champ in the Glory Kickboxing promotion. Pereira, being champion with only seven pro-MMA fights to his name, speaks volumes about his skill. His primary tool and go-to weapon is his left hook. In times of desperation, he will double and triple up with his left hand and look to set up his opponents with counter-check hooks and uppercuts.
The stat that can easily be overlooked is that Izzy, in every encounter with Pereira, has been winning, if not all, then the majority of the fights each time until he is caught, wobbled and put on the back foot. In their last contest, I don’t think many will argue with you that if the fight goes the distance that Izzy would be the champ today. It was a competitive fight, but Izzy was always one step ahead and has always been one step ahead but can’t get over the difference in power between them. Pereira possesses the great equalizer, Power. He isn’t the most athletic fighter but very technical and, most importantly, mighty. 86% of Pereira’s wins come by KO/TKO, and he has a highlight reel full of one-punch knockouts. For Adesanya to win this fight, he has to be perfect and control the space between him and Pereira. Pereira is a stalker and looks to make the octagon small; Izzy will have to maintain distance and perhaps even wrestle more this time. In all of his previous fights, he has never wrestled, and when he attempted to wrestle him in their last matchup, he was able to get control time for a short time. Control time that I think will help zap the energy from the powerful Poatan as the fight goes into deep waters. Izzy was winning their last war and was on his way to perhaps a unanimous decision victory until Pereira finally caught him against the cage, and Izzy couldn’t withstand the power coming his way.
This time around, I feel that Izzy will wrestle more and look to grapple his way out of tricky situations against the fence. Perhaps look to clinch and put Pereira’s back on the cage and look to expose the holes in Pereira’s ground game. Pereira may be a world champion kickboxer, and his training with former light heavyweight and outstanding grappler Glover Teixeira will improve his ground game. Still, until now, Pereira has yet to face a real challenge on the ground. At best, he is a blue belt on the ground, and if Izzy can mix in some takedowns, then it will change the complexion of this whole rivalry and expose Pereira. Like their last matchup, I feel that Izzy will take this into the later rounds and use his movement and spacing to limit the power coming from Alex. Because I also believe that Izzy will wrestle, I think that if there is a finish in this fight, it will be in the championship rounds. Therefore, I like the over 3.5 rounds prop as a bet. I will also take Adesanya to win in rounds four, five, or by decision at plus money. Pereira is good and is very powerful and, as a slight dog, has good value, but realizing that you had the fight won and let it slip in the end will only produce a sharper and more dangerous Izzy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds a finish this time around.
Bet: Adesanya vs. Pereira over 3.5 rounds -145/Adesanya to win in Rounds 4 or 5 or by decision +120/Adesanya ML -140
Burns vs. Masvidal Odds
Gilbert Burns -500; Jorge Masvidal +350
The co-main event features former teammates when Masvidal toes the line against Burns. Masvidal is an MMA veteran with over 50 professional fights, yet his breakout year didn’t come until 2019. Masvidal went on a three-fight winning streak in 2019 that changed his career trajectory. Until that year, Masvidal was more than likely on his way out of the promotion, as his inconsistency and lousy luck with the judges didn’t leave much to desire. Then the UFC matches Ben Askren against Masvidal in perhaps the most viral moment in sports history. The knee is heard around the world. If you go on Masvidal’s Tapology page, it’s the current profile pic and will forever live on as one of the fastest knockouts in UFC history. Because of that knee, Masvidal was able to secure several endorsements and get fights against Usman twice and Colby Covington once. Wars that resulted in huge paydays and opportunities at immortality.
Now two years removed from his shot at the belt, Masvidal is looking to begin anew, but this time I don’t expect him to stay around much longer. He’s been quoted saying that if he doesn’t win this fight, he will probably call it quits. Having a one-foot-in and one-foot-out mentality at this level of the game is dangerous, and I think he will get finished this weekend. Masvidal is good and has always been durable, but since getting knocked out by usman and mauled by Colby, I genuinely believe this fight is his last time in the spotlight. If he doesn’t win this fight, will he fight an up-and-comer? Doubt it. At 38 years of age and going into his 52nd career fight, I expect Masvidal to give his best effort, but I can’t see him winning this fight. Burns has more tools, and the grappling disparity is too much to ignore. Sure, Masvidal will keep this fight standing in the beginning, but against his previous opponents, who were also good on the ground, he was taken down and controlled. Masvidal is durable and doesn’t get finished often, but I don’t believe he’s all in anymore. Against a very motivated Gilbert Burns, I think he will get finished and possibly submitted. Similar to how Gilbert submitted Neil Magny.
Bets: Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO or submission -110/Burns in Round 3 or by decision +105
Yanez vs. Font Odds
Adrian Yanez -185; Rob Font +152
Outside of the main and co-main event, the best fight on the card belongs to Rob Font and Adrian Yanez. There isn’t a fight on their resumes that is boring. Both fighters look to finish fights and don’t look for easy wins. Font has been with the UFC since 2014 and, after his debut year, had a two-year layoff and then a handful of canceled fights. Font should be a household name, in my opinion, but he didn’t have his breakout year until 2019, and now at 35 and after a year off. Font is making another push and perhaps his last push at the title. Standing in his way is a new hungry dog, Adrian Yanez. The Texas native has made a statement every time he steps into the octagon thus far. Yanez is undefeated in his last five, with four finishes and one win by decision. 63% of his wins come by way of knockout, and with some time away to sharpen his tools, I believe Yanez will be improved and better calculated when he faces off against his toughest test to date. Font has a height and reaches advantage of one inch, and he attempts more takedowns which may help to avoid the power of Yanez. The only issue is that Yanez averages a 100% takedown defense, and if Font can’t clinch or make this fight dirty, then it will turn into a slugfest, and the more technical and accurate fighter will win. I believe Font has seen better days and because of his experience he will do well but overall I don’t think he wins.
Bets: Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO or decision -165
Holland vs. Ponzinibbio Odds
Kevin Holland -250; Santiago Ponzinibbio +200
Holland is another fighter looking to get into the win column again after a brief retirement and back-to-back losses. He has been with the promotion since 2018, and since his debut with the UFC has averaged three fights a year. Holland averages 11 minutes of fight time and four significant strikes landed per minute and has a reach advantage of nearly 10 inches. Ponzinibbio will have to be calculated, sharp and fast-moving in and out of the pocket against the bigger and more powerful Holland. Ponzinibbio has a high output and averages five significant strikes landed per minute, but the issue is that he nearly absorbs the same number of strikes. Against a striker like Holland, I don’t think he will want to be absorbing many strikes. If Holland loses this fight, I think he will retire for good, as this fight is borderline gatekeeper status, and I don’t believe Holland wants to be known as that. The speed, height and reach advantages will be too much for Ponzinibbio, a very durable fighter who absorbs too many strikes to come out on top against a fighter who can do damage from afar. If Ponzinibbio can’t wrestle, he will have difficulty succeeding with his stand-up. Give me Holland to find a win late or on the scorecards. Santiago may absorb a lot of strikes, but he has only been stopped once in his UFC career so far, and considering he will be trying to wrestle, I can see this fight going into the third round and possibly to the judge’s scorecards. Holland, whether he retires after this fight or not, doesn’t want to be known as a loser and is currently on a two-fight losing streak; this matchup is perfect for getting back into the win column.
Bets: Kevin Holland in Round 3 or by decision +120/Kevin Holland ML (Parlay Piece)
Rosas vs. Rodriguez Odds
Raul Rosas Jr. -250; Christian Rodriguez +195
With only two UFC fights under his belt, Rosas steps into the octagon for his third fight with the promotion. Rosas made history when he debuted on the Contender Series at 17, making him the youngest fighter to ever debut in the UFC. It was quickly forgotten how young he was after putting on a dominant performance against a very durable opponent. In his official debut, Rosas continued to impress and had a first-round submission victory over Jay Perrin. Now he’s matched up against an outstanding prospect in Rodriguez. Rodriguez was matched up against a tough Jonathan Pierce in his debut, and although he possesses good grappling skills, they weren’t enough to nullify the game plan of JSP, and he would be taken down a handful of times and controlled for over nine minutes. Rodriguez did have moments where he showed good strikes and combinations, but it was towards the end of the fight when Pierce was gassed from wrestling all contest. Many of the public see the value of Rodriguez, but I can’t see why. Sure, Rosas doesn’t have the most polished stand-up, but if Rodriguez can’t negate any takedowns coming from Rosas, then I don’t know how he can win. He’s going to have to make Rosas’ stand and strike to have success, and in the grappling department, I think Rosas is world-class and not only better than Rodriguez but better than many of the top fighters in the division. From a betting perspective, I will fade the public and side with the young phenom Rosas. Rodriguez’s performance against JSP was enough for me to side with Rosas, the better grappler in this match-up.
Bets: Rosas in Round 3 or by decision +150
Prelims
Ogden vs. Bahamondes Odds
Trey Ogden +280; Ignacio Bahamondes -360
Ogden and Bahamondes kick off our night Saturday. In the second fight of the night, these two competitors will bring the heat, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight contended for the fight of the night honors. Bahamondes is a pressure fighter who uses his kickboxing background to inflict damage. Bahamondes came into the UFC in 2020 and since then has only been to the scorecards one time and possesses two walkoff head-kick KOs. Bahamondes operates rapidly and averages nearly nine significant strikes landed per minute. He also is very durable and can take on a good amount of damage. His greatest attribute is his durability. The sheer volume and pace coming from Bahamondes are why his opponents eventually break the longer a fight goes. For Trey Ogden to win this fight, he will have to grapple and get this fight to the ground. Ogden has won 63% of fights by submission and 36% by decision. He has never won a fight by knockout, and I don’t think he will start a new trend this weekend. Instead, I believe Ogden has a tough time getting this fight to the ground while getting beat up by Bahamondes. Ignacio has a four-inch reach advantage coupled with a three-inch reach advantage. Ogden will have to close the distance without taking damage, and that is where the problem begins and ends for Trey. The bet is Bahamondes to find a finish late in the fight or win unanimously on the scorecards.
Bets: Ignacio Bahamondes in Round 3 or by decision +110
Pyfer vs. Meerschaert Odds
Joe Pyfer -190; Gerald Meerschaert +159
Pyfer enters the octagon this weekend after winning his debut fight dominantly last year. Pyfer made his debut on the Contender Series and quickly became a fan favorite after Dana White was quoted saying that if any fighter wanted to get into the UFC, they would have to “be like Joe Pyfer.” Pyfer goes into fights to finish, and in a sport made of violence, it always pays to get the job done as quickly and as violently as possible. So far, Pyfer hasn’t disappointed and, in all of his career, has only been to a decision once. Since that decision victory in 2018, Pyfer has never seen another third round. He has found finishes in eight out of twelve professional fights and faces off against his toughest or, better said most experienced fighter to date, Meerschaert. Since getting sent to the shadow realm by Khamzat Chiamev, Meerschaert hasn’t been the same. He has won fights and is on a small win streak, but if the long-time bet doesn’t get his grappling going in this matchup, I can only see him getting sent back to the shadow realm again. Meerschaert doesn’t possess the best stand-up game and doesn’t move his head off the center line when striking. He mixes in a couple of body kicks to keep the distance, but it usually leads to the main game plan, which is to get the fight to the ground. Meerschaert is dangerous when he can out-grapple his opponents and act as a wet blanket until his opponents break from the pressure. The problem begins when he can’t successfully control his opponent and has to stand and strike. In this matchup against Pyfer, he’s going to find some resistance from Joe, who, like Gerald, averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Pyfer is also effective with his jiujitsu, so I expect him to know enough to keep himself out of danger and out of the guillotine of Meerschaert. I’m siding with Pyfer here, and this will be a good test for him and will boost him into the next level of ufc fighters.
Bets: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO or submission -110/Pyfer vs. Meerschaert over 1.5 rounds +105
Gastelum vs. Curtis Odds
Kelvin Gastelum -130; Chris Curtis +115
In the featured prelim of the night, former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum faces The Action Man Chris Curtis. After losing to Izzy by a split decision in 2019, Gastelum has never been the same. He has since won one out of his last five fights and hasn’t fought since he lost to Jarod Cannonier in 2021. He had scheduled contests, but they were all canceled due to injuries and visa issues for one of Gastelum’s opponents. The fight game is not always pretty, and Gastelum isn’t the first fighter to suffer injuries that keep them away from the octagon. Still, I can’t imagine he will be in the UFC for much longer. He has fought the best of the best and has failed at the highest level. There aren’t too many chances at the title, especially with all the new blood coming into the UFC. If Gastelum doesn’t find a win this weekend, I can’t imagine he’s with the promotion next year. Curtis, on the other hand, has been one of the most active fighters and fought six times in 2021 alone. Curtis is about that action, and every time he steps into the octagon, you can expect fireworks. In his recent bouts, Curtis has had to worry about the takedown or wasting his energy fending off the takedowns. In this matchup, he will fight a fighter who doesn’t mind standing and banging and is also capable of finding takedowns but not accurate enough to pose a threat. Gastelum averages 1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing only 32% of those takedowns. Against the bigger and in my opinion, more powerful Curtis, Gastelum will have to close the distance to limit the four-inch reach advantage and also will have to wrestle and build up control time on the ground. If Gastelum can’t successfully do either of those things, I see it going for him exactly how his fight with Cannonier went. Badly. The value is on the action man and as a slight underdog I already hammered his line twice.
Bets: Chris Curtis ML +115
