UFC 285 MMA Betting Odds (3/4)

The most anticipated fight card of 2023 has arrived with this weekend’s UFC 285. Jon Jones makes his return to the octagon after a three-year hiatus that not only saw him change teams but also change weight classes. Welcoming Jones to the heavyweight division is current No. 1 contender Cyril Gane. Both fighters will be competing for the vacant heavyweight championship of the world — a fascinating matchup between a future Hall of Famer and the newest superstar out of Paris, France.

In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to keep her reign at the top intact when she takes on new challenger Alexa Grasso. Last time out, Shevchenko fought her toughest test to date and will be looking to quiet the doubters and answer questions raised after the previous performance that showed her to be human after all. Kicking off the main card is the UFC’s newest prospect in world-class wrestler Bo Nickal. After winning everything there is to win on the wrestling mats more than once, Nickal is making his official debut against UFC vet Jamie Pickett.

This PPV is stacked from top to bottom with talent and violence, and I for one cannot wait for this weekend. There are 14 fights on this card, and as always, I will break down my favorite fights and give you a best bet or bets for each. All odds are from BetMGM.

Main Card

Jones vs. Gane Odds

Jon Jones -170; Cyril Gane +140

In perhaps the most anticipated return to the octagon since Conor Mcgregor, Jones returns to the octagon to challenge for the world’s heavyweight championship, with a new team around him and in a new division. Jones looks to reach new heights after reigning for so long atop the light heavyweight division. There have been many questions raised since his last fight that almost saw him lose to now-free agent Dominick Reyes. Jones did win the fight unanimously but lacked the quality and finesse that he showed in most of his fights, and in some parts of the fight didn’t lead the dance like he usually does. It led many to question whether Jones could stay at the top. Legal troubles and personal issues kept Jones away from the cage after that fight in 2020, and now he has turned a new leaf in life and his fight career and looks to join rarefied air by becoming champ in a second division. Keep in mind Jones has never lost a fight in his professional career — the one loss on his record was a DQ from a questionable elbow, and since he has never lost taking on legends of the sport and finishing fights in an emphatic fashion.

Gane is not your typical heavyweight, as he has the footwork and hand speed of a smaller fighter packed in with his power, and it makes sense why he has been heavily promoted since his debut in 2019. Originally thought to be the Kryptonite to former heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou, Gane has all the tools to not only be a heavyweight champion but also move down and throw down with the light heavyweights, where I believe he belongs. Gane likes to fight comfortably and without worry about a weight cut, so he uses his footwork and hand speed to his advantage against the more prominent and slower heavyweights. The heavyweight division outside of Derrick Lewis and Ngannou was not very scary and it would be a great career move for Gane to attack a division he can conquer and then move down to a tougher division once he has a legacy and belt around his waist.

For both men, this will be their toughest test to date but for different reasons. For Gane, it will be that he’s facing a good wrestler with a very high fight IQ and, at heavyweight, has no tape or training partners who can mimic what Jon Jones can do. Gane is talented and very fast, but the longer the fight goes on and the more he has to wrestle. I believe that will play in favor of Jones, who averages 1.85 takedowns per fifteen mins against Gane, who defends 55% of takedowns and couldn’t defend takedowns coming from Ngannou. For Jones, the challenge will be finishing his rhythm again and managing the jitters of coming back to the octagon after three years. A big part that plays into his performance is his size and the fact that he’s never fought this heavy. Managing his gas tank will be crucial if he wants to drag this into deep waters. From a betting perspective, I’m going with Jon Jones, who, even after three years, will lean on his fight IQ and show why he is considered the GOAT.

Bet: Jon Jones ML -170/Jones vs. Gane over 4.5 rounds -145

Shevchenko vs. Grasso Odds

Valentina Shevchenko -900; Alexa Grasso +600

Shevchenko returns to the octagon to defend her title for the eighth time against Grasso this weekend. Setting the record for seven title defenses her last time out, Shevchenko is looking to make a statement and answer questions raised in her previous fight, where she was dominated and, for some time in the war, looked human. There is even a group of people who believe Valentina lost that fight, and if it wasn’t for a late flurry and takedown, we could be talking about a different title fight. The biggest challenge for Valentina in her last fight was the size and physicality of Talita Santos, which made it hard for Valentina to sweep or transition when the fight hit the canvas. There were moments when Santos had the champ in trouble and moments away from a stoppage. Still, the champion persevered and, when the fight was on the feet, landed pivotal damage and, in deep waters, showed why she is the best on the planet.

Grasso is currently the No. 1 contender and is on a four-fight winning streak. She has been in the UFC since 2016 but only recently has found her stride and, after four dominant wins, seems ready to challenge for glory. She is an aggressive fighter who bases her fight style off a good boxing background and, over time, has developed her MMA game to be well-rounded, finding wins by submission and knockout. Still, most of her career wins have been by decision, which leads me to believe that she is no stranger to wars of attrition, and if she can utilize her grappling in this fight, she can find moments of success. Still, what may hurt Grasso’s chances in this fight is that she’s not physically bigger or able to dominate the champ like Santos. Grasso can grapple and will try to make this fight ugly, no doubt, but to beat the champion, I believe you need size like Santos. Because of that lack in size, the champion can fend off any attacks on the ground and may even find success in her grappling in this fight, which is something she didn’t have her last time out. 

Bet: Shevchenko by KO/TKO or submission -150/Shevchenko in Rounds 4, 5 or decision +120

Neal vs. Rakhmonov Odds

Geoff Neal +375; Shavkat Rakhmonov -500

Two hard-hitting prospects toe the line this weekend when Neal faces Rakhmonov. Perhaps the division’s scariest contender, Rakhmonov comes into this bout undefeated and on a 12-fight win streak with a 100% finish rate. He is 16-0 and has never been to the third round in any fight thus far. Neal is a UFC veteran and is also known to be a finisher. Neal has six finishes on his UFC record and is also durable and capable of fending off attacks from some of the best in the division. Still, I think Rakhmonov has been the division’s dark horse for a long time and is now beginning to shake his claim as one of the top fighters in the welterweight division. Both fighters average less than 15 minutes of fight time, with Rakhmonov averaging less than 1.5 rounds per fight. The most significant difference in this fight comes in size and how that size can be used to dominate this fight. He has the size advantage in this fight, which plays well into his game plan of using wrestling to neutralize his opponents and find a finish.

Where Neal has an advantage is in the output or volume department as he averages three more significant strikes per minute, and Rakhmonov’s striking is good, but primarily a means to an end. The question that needs to be answered, though, is whether Neal can keep this fight standing. If he can successfully negate takedown attempts, his chances of winning the fight improve. If Neal finds himself on bottom time after time in this fight, then the only victory he may have is a moral one for surviving the entire fight. Neal has never been finished in the UFC, and I’m sure he’s planning to keep it that way. Still, from a betting perspective, I don’t see how Neal can put it together well enough to keep this fight standing, and even if he has 85% takedown defense, the type of pressure and wrestling brought on by shavkat is different. He will soon find out Saturday night. Some fighters are born to be in the cage and train in a manner that almost make them invincible, to me that is Rakhmonov. 

Bet: Rakhmonov by KO/TKO or submission -175/Rakhmonov by submission +135

Gamrot vs. Turner Odds

Mateusz Gamrot -227; Jalin Turner +192

I like a couple of underdogs this weekend, and one of those dogs is Turner taking on Gamrot in what could have fight-of-the-night potential. In a striker vs. grappler match, Turner plays the role of the striker. As his UFC career has progressed, he has developed a well-rounded skill set, complete with takedown defense and wrestling. That wrestling could play a pivotal part in his finding success against Gamrot. Gamrot is an extremely dangerous grappler who predicates his game plans around taking his opponents to the canvas and dominating. Gamrot averages just over three significant strikes and uses those strikes to set up his entries for takedowns. He may not land his first takedown attempt, but he chain wrestles well and often puts a pace on opponents that drowns them. Gamrot does possess power in his hands but doesn’t necessarily look to brawl or lean on his power, instead attempting 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and looking to zap the energy from his opponents on the canvas. On the other hand, Turner is a long, rangy lightweight who uses his length and athleticism to keep fights standing and his opponents at range. Turner will have to negate takedowns coming from Gamrot to have success, and his size and athleticism are why I believe he can do it. Turner is not just a striker, and I think that will make the difference against Gamrot. Many times Gamrot goes up against fighters who can’t negate his takedowns and drown under pressure. Turner is skilled and competent enough on the ground to create his offense and turn the tides in the fight. Give me Turner in this fight as the dog and the more powerful and better striker who will get the better of Gamrot during exchanges. Look for Turner to find a finish late in this fight when Gamrot fades from so many takedown attempts. 

Bet: Jalin Turner ML +192

Pickett vs. Nickal Odds

Jamie Pickett +1000; Bo Nickal -2000

One of the most anticipated prospects to ever step inside the octagon makes his debut this weekend when Nickal faces UFC Vet Pickett. Nickal is a Penn State wrestler and has won everything there is to win in the world of collegiate sports and now seeks to become the best in the world of MMA. With two first-round finishes leading up to this debut, Nickal has not only proved that he belongs but has also shown improvements every time he steps into the octagon. His last performance showed that he not only can dominate on the ground but also include an educated submission game. Nickal will have to improve his stand-up significantly to reach the highest levels of the sport. He does have power in his hands and has won in the past by KO, yet until he finds his rhythm on the feet, he will have to wrestle to keep this fight and fights in the future in his wheelhouse. Jamie Pickett is decent and has been underwhelming during his ufc career thus far. He has power and speed, but at times can get sloppy and tends to lunge when he strikes. The lunging when he strikes is precisely why I believe bo will be successful. Nickal will wait for that over-extension, and once he gets it to the ground, he won’t let Pickett back up until he finds the submission. Nickal will eventually meet his match, as his striking will cost him, but in this matchup, I don’t think he will have a problem having his way. 

Bet: Bo Nickal by submission -170 

Prelims

Garbrandt vs. Jones Odds

Cody Garbrandt -170; Trevin Jones +150

Stepping back into the octagon for perhaps the last time if he can’t find a win is former champion Garbrandt. He comes into this weekend with nothing to prove as a former champion, but his career perhaps on the line, as his decline since winning the belt has been sad and hard to watch. Jones is on the other side of the cage but in the same boat as his run so far in the UFC has been anticlimactic and leaves much to be desired. Both fighters are UFC veterans and have fought some of the best the division offers but never seem to get over the hump. For Garbrandt, the hump was making a successful title defense, and for Jones it was making a run long enough that it led to a title shot. Jones is athletic and powerful but lacks IQ in pivotal moments, and it’s why he hasn’t progressed or become a household name. Still, because he’s always in exciting fights like Garbrandt, this matchup makes sense and will give the fans something to remember. Both guys can be put to sleep, but the winner will be the fighter who can brawl less and not overextend on any power punches. Jones is better suited to take damage than Garbrandt and throws his strikes with more power. For that reason, I believe Garbrandt will get knocked out. He is a great fighter, and there is a good reason why he was a champion, but his decline is due to his chin and its ability to take damage. Since losing his championship belt, Garbrandt’s chin went with it, and he has never been the same. For that reason, I believe that if he doesn’t stay away from Jones’ power hand, it could end early for the former champion, and he could find himself as a free agent soon after. If this were Garbrandt two years ago, I would’ve backed him quickly, but with his recent performances and chin being too much of a liability, I can’t get behind him and will back Jones to get the win and possibly knockout. 

Bet: Trevin Jones ML +150 

Brunson vs. Du Plessis Odds

Derek Brunson +195; Driscuss Du Plessis -230

Blonde Brunson is back in the cage this weekend against South Africa’s Du Plessis. Both fighters will look to grapple and keep this fight on the canvas. Du Plessis is the better striker out of the two and also carries firepower in his hands. He is the better striker, but only because he has power and not because he has technique. If you’re looking at Du Plessis shadow box, you would think he was an LA Fitness legend, but somehow, he puts it all together and mixes his herky-jerky style with intense wrestling to win his matches. Du Plessis has only been to one decision in his UFC career against a formidable striker and wrestler in Brad Taveras. Taveras might not have been a world-class wrestler, but he was athletic enough to keep the fight standing and create enough scrambles to tire Du Plessis the longer the fight went. Therefore, I believe Brunson will succeed as a better wrestler and overall MMA fighter. Brunson may be old, but with age comes experience and fight iQ, and as long as this fight stays on the mat and not in striking range for Brunson, then I believe he cashes us out this weekend as an underdog. Both guys tire the longer the fight goes, and in deep waters, I will side with the better grappler to make better decisions when exhausted. 

Bet: Derek Brunson ML +195 

Garry vs. Song Odds 

Ian Garry -800; Kenan Song +550

The only thought that comes to mind when thinking of the matchup between Garry and Song is violence. Both fighters have been finishers since they first stepped into the octagon, and I don’t think they want to stray now. Both fighters average less than 15 minutes of fight time. Garry averages slightly more output than Song and is taller and has more reach by three inches, which will come in handy when keeping Song at a distance and the end of his power. I expect this fight to start slow and pick up the pace the longer it goes and the more each fighter finds their rhythm in the contest. Garry is very hittable and has been in wars, but he has shown to be durable and capable of persevering, which he will need against the powerful song. This fight isn’t going to go the distance, but I don’t think it ends early, and if the finish happens, it will be towards the end of the second or the start of the third round. The picks for me will be for this fight to go past seven and a half minutes or over one and a half rounds, and because Garry’s line is juiced to the gills, I will be placing him in a parlay as well. 

Bet: Garry vs. Song over 1.5 rounds -125/Ian Garry ML -800 (Parlay piece)