UFC 284 MMA Betting Odds (2/11)

The UFC heads down under to Perth, Australia, for UFC 284, headlined by lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Whoever wins this super-fight will sit at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings and prove that they are indeed the cream of the crop in the UFC. Volkanovski has beaten everyone in his division. After beating Charles Oliveira, Islam doesn’t have anyone else in his division that currently poses a threat.

The main event will crown a new pound-for-pound king, and in the co-main event, Yair Rodriguez will be facing off against the long-time Alpha male product Josh Emmett. Emmett and Rodriguez will be fighting for the interim featherweight title while the current champ fights up in weight in the main event. A hometown favorite also steps into the octagon when Jack Della Maddalena toes the line against the rangy Randy Brown. Outside the main and co-main event fights, Maddalena vs. Brown is possibly the best fight on the card and will have fans on their feet from start to finish. There are 13 fights this weekend, and as usual, I will be breaking down my favorite fights from the card and giving you the best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.

Main Card

Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Odds

Islam Makhachev -410; Alexander Volkanovski +295

According to the odds, this fight should be an easy payday for the fighter from Dagestan, Makhachev. That said, Makhachev in my opinion is stepping into the octagon against his most formidable challenge to date. Why? Because, like Islam, Volkanovski has few or no holes in his game, and if he can keep this fight standing, he has proven himself with some of the best strikers on the planet. Against a wrestling-based fighter, his biggest challenge will be not drowning under the pressure that Islam brings to his opponents. After watching Islam dismantle Oliveira, it’s easy to assume that the outcome will be the same for Volkanovski. Still, when going up against Charles, it was known that the more challenging the fight, the more likely the old Oliveira would appear and quit. Volkanovski has shown that even at the brink of defeat, he can walk through fire and come out victorious like he did against Brian Ortega, who almost beat the champion by guillotine choke. The choke was so tight and technically sound that it would’ve slept any human on Earth. Still, Volk was able to fight it off and finish off the fight in a dominant fashion. Showing that he is a true champion and not just looking to coast into retirement. Islam is 23-1-0, with the one loss coming from a flash knockout during his debut for the UFC. Islam played a bit overaggressive and paid for it badly against a fighter no one expected to win. Since then, he has played a much more reserved style, which has him at 12-1 in the UFC and currently the lightweight champion. Volkanovski is 25-1-0, with his only loss coming before he was in the UFC back in 2013; Volkanovski has not lost while in the UFC and is currently 12-0 and current featherweight champion. Alex came into the UFC with a wrestling-heavy style that got him wins against fighters like Shane young, Jeremy Kennedy, and Dan Elkins. He broke through after beating Jose Aldo and then went on to have a trilogy with max Holloway. These are two fighters at the top of their games and careers. The durability, wrestling, and rugby background will be tested when Volkanovski tries to stifle the attack from the heavy favorite Islam Makhachev. Many believe that the size difference will make a difference, but I think that Volk is capable of being strong enough to make this fight competitive and make this a close fight. 

The Bets: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski over 2.5 rounds -165/Makhachev to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision

Rodriguez vs. Emmett Odds

Yair Rodriguez -185; Josh Emmett +150

Josh Emmett is a well-rounded fighter who trains out of the Team Alpha Male. He has an exciting and aggressive fighting style that has seem some of the most memorable knockouts in the UFC. Starting his career in 2011, Emmett quickly racked up an impressive championship winning record, becoming the RFO lightweight champion and the CFFC featherweight champion – the latter a title he held for two years while defending multiple times. In early 2018, he made his debut in the UFC where he found himself victorious on all three of his appearances, each one of them ending in a knockout. Although his record-breaker was an impressive performance against Michael Johnson (where he scored a KO in the final round), he surely cemented his place in the UFC with a huge win over Ricardo Lamas, which earned him Performance of the Night honors and boosted his career into the rankings of a new division. Rodriguez is a proud Mexican fighter and during his tenure in the UFC has competed as a bantamweight and featherweight. He is best known for his unorthodox and flashy style of fighting. Yair has been plagued in the past with many injuries and unfortunate realities of the fight game, but like Emmett, he is finally at the mountain top ready to take his shot at glory. Outside of the main event, this fight is going to be good, and I wouldn’t be surprised if its fight of the night as both fighters are durable, motivated, and have thrived in wars of attrition in the past. Both fighters are evenly matched with both averaging nearly five significant strikes per minute, they both absorb four significant strikes per minute, and in the takedown department josh averages one takedown per 15 minutes and Yair although not a wrestler is capable of defending himself on the ground. The difference for me comes in the unpredictability of Yair and how well he uses his strikes and creativity compared to josh, that seems to be more traditional in his striking. Emmett may have some success if he can get some ground control time but ultimately, I believe that Yair will be able to pick him apart. As long as Yair doesn’t get too creative and land on an overhand right from Emmett, I believe he wins a five-round war. 

The Bets: Yair Rodriguez ML -165/Rodriguez vs. Emmett fight goes the distance -125

Brown vs. Della Maddalena Odds

Randy Brown +250; Jack Della Maddalena -325

Randy Brown is a three-time professional MMA champion, the winner of the Vital Fighting Championship title and the Ring of Combat title. Brown is widely recognized as one of the most promising welterweight fighters in the UFC. Brown’s career began in 2011, he has consistently shown his determination and tenacity in each of his bouts, securing more impressive wins over tougher opponents and making his way up the rankings. In 2017, Brown compiled an impressive 7-0-win streak to capture the Ring of combat Welterweight title. Throughout 2017 and into early 2018, Brown took his skills to the biggest stage in MMA after being discovered on Dana White: Lookin’ for a Fight. He has since competed against some of the biggest names in the welterweight division and is currently 16-4-0 as a pro and 10-4-0 overall in the UFC. Della Maddalena is an Australian born fighter who fights out of scrappy MMA and thus far in the UFC has yet to see a judges score card or fight past the first round. He is outsized in this matchup by height and reach but he is definitely not outclassed. Della Maddalena averages nearly nine significant strikes per minute, defends 67% of strikes thrown his way and many times doesn’t mind taking a punch to give one back. Della Maddalena doesn’t attempt many takedowns but is well versed and athletic enough to defend himself, should the fight end up there. The edge Brown has over Della Maddalena is purely physical as he doesn’t match the output and, in many cases, does get rocked or make mistakes that leave him open to getting knocked out by Della Maddalena. We also can not forget that randy brown has made the trip for this fight and may be hindered by the travel if he did not acclimate correctly. I expect this fight to be very exciting and competitive but, in the end, I see the fight being won by Della Maddalena. 

The Bets: Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO or submission -130/Maddalena vs. Brown over 1.5 rounds -185

Porter vs. Tafa Odds

Parker Porter +105; Justin Tafa -125

Porter is an American heavyweight mixed martial artist currently fighting in the UFC. Porter began his career in MMA in 2011. After turning pro, the following year, he quickly made a name for himself in regional shows throughout New England. He holds a professional record of 13-7, with many of his victories coming by way of knockout or submission. In 2019, Porter signed with the UFC. He won his debut via split-decision over Adam Milstead in August 2019. He has since gone on to compile a 3–2 record and after going on a three-fight win streak, lost his most recent fight to Jailton Almedia by submission. Tafa is a heavy hitter from down under that made his debut back in 2019 and has since compiled a 3-2 record in the UFC. He is still a very green as an MMA fighter and also a bit undersized for this weight class, but Tafa is powerful and can shut the lights off at any time during the fight. When breaking down heavyweight fights, it’s easy to predict a knockout while wearing four-ounce gloves. Still, this fight is about more than power and I believe it will be about who is the better MMA fighter. Tafa averages just over one and a half rounds of fight time and doesn’t possess much technique when he fights. Tafa is a brawler, and it shows by the amount of strikes he is willing to absorb to dish out his power. Tafa throws 5.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing nearly six significant strikes per minute. That only tells me that Tafa is knockout or bust and if he doesn’t find the finish in the first round it could get ugly for him in the second and third rounds when parker starts to mix in the takedowns and turn Tafa into a defensive wrestler. Outside of his first and past fight Parker has not been stopped and in terms of MMA skill I believe that he is the better fighter here and has the value as the underdog.

The Bet: Parker Porter ML +120

Prelims

Culibao vs. Baghdasaryan Odds

Joshua Culibao -110; Melsik Baghdasaryan -110

Joshua Culibao is an Australian fighter currently competing in the lightweight division in the UFC. A professional since 2016, Culibao formerly competed in the Australian Fighting Championship, King in the Ring, and Cage Warriors. He has amassed a record of 10-1-0 before joining the UFC. Culibao made his UFC debut in 2020 against Jalin Turner and lost by TKO. Since then, he has gone 2-0-1 and has shown that he belongs in the UFC. Melsik will be a good test for Culibao as he gets to fight an opponent that like him wants to keep this fight standing. Melsik Baghdasaryan is an Armenian fighter competing in the Featherweight division of the UFC. Melsik made his professional debut in 2011, and fought mostly on regional circuit based in Moscow, Russia, where he had a 6-1 record, before signing with the UFC. After beating Denis Buzukja on the Contender Series Melsik went on to make his debut against Collin Anglin and is currently 2-0 in the UFC. Throughout his professional MMA career, Melsik has faced notable competition on the regional scene and has even taken bouts in the boxing ring. His stand-up game is well rounded and incorporates boxing and Muay Thai. Culibao can strike and does have a reach advantage in this fight but the power and speed I believe come from the Melsik side and Culibao at times can be wild and leave himself open to counters from Melsik. If Culibao incorporates some wrestling into his game plan for this fight, I can see him being successful in this fight, but I don’t think it’ll be that easy. Culibao wasn’t able to bring down Charles Jourdain and he only defends 48% of takedowns. Melsik Defends 76% of takedowns and like most well rounded strikers in the UFC, is accurate and athletic enough to keep himself off the canvas. 

The Bet: Melsik Baghdasaryan ML -110

Rodrigues vs. Ross Odds

Kleydson Rodrigues -335; Shannon Ross +260

This fight is not very hard to breakdown as it features a future Brazilian star and Shannon ross, a fighter who was on the Contender Series and was sent to the shadow realm by Vinicius Salvador. Since then, Ross has not been on anyone’s radar and didn’t even get a contract from Dana White when on the show. The only reason I could imagine that the matchmakers brought him back for this card is because he’s a hometown guy and the perfect matchup to boost the stock of a young, hungry Rodrigues. Rodrigues showed he was human when he had a tough fight against CJ Vergara in his debut. Still, many believe that he won that fight and should currently be undefeated in the UFC. Ross is capable of putting Rodrigues on the back foot and applying pressure with his stand up, but I don’t think that he has the tools to match the athleticism and fire power coming from Rodrigues. This fight is simple to me. Outside of a lucky punch from Ross, I don’t think he wins this fight, and once he loses this weekend, I think we never see him again at the UFC level. 

The Bets: Kleydson Rodrigues by KO/TKO or sub +100/Rodrigues vs. Ross under 2.5 rounds -110 

Mullarkey vs. Prado Odds

Jaime Mullarkey -285; Francisco Prado +225

Jamie Mullarkey is a fighter out of Australia and competes in the lightweight division of the UFC. He currently holds a professional record of 15-5 and has competed at the top level of MMA since making his debut as a pro in 2013. He has forged a reputation as a grinder who utilizes strong submission grappling to get the best of opponents, earning him a big following down under and a big fan base this weekend. Going up against a power puncher Prado, Mullarkey will have to be aware of the power and not brawl. Prado is still very green in his MMA career and against a journeyman like Mullarkey, I expect him to be challenged like never before. Prado has never been to a judge’s decision in his career thus far and against a grinder like Mullarkey, I expect him to have his gas tank and overall skills to the test. Mullarkey not only has the experience advantage, having fought at the highest level, but he also has the grappling and fight iq advantage. Prado may have a future in the UFC as he reminds me of a young Drew Dober, but this weekend I believe he will get steamrolled by the hometown favorite Mullarkey and realize that while its good to be in the UFC finally, he still has more work to do if he hopes to compete in the UFC for a long time.

The Bet: Jamie Mullarkey by KO/TKO or sub -105