Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier. This week I’m going to use projected rostership at the time of writing to break down this card, as I think there’s a couple of nice spots to make pivots. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.
Israel Adesanya
Izzy comes in as the fighter with the highest projected roster percentage as the main event favorite despite failing to break 100 DK points in three straight fights and four of the last five. The only scenario where he is optimal outside of a KO is probably a three-knockdown performance. If these numbers hold up, I will definitely come in under the field in this spot.
Dricus Du Plessis
Coming off two really nice KO wins has Du Plessis coming in at No. 2. This is likely another spot I will look to come in underweight on. He was pretty neck and neck with an undersized Trevin Giles, who has since moved down to 170, prior to landing the KO blow in his most recent fight. Brad Taveres is a very calculated, meticulous guy who looks to slow the fight down to his terms and tends to suck the upside out of a fight.
Bryan Barberena
Broken record, Barberena but another fighter I am looking to be underweight on. “Bam Bam” still throws great volume but hasn’t landed a KO since getting his back fused in 2019. I guess it’s possible that he can get there on volume alone against Robbie Lawler, but I’m picking Lawler in this spot and won’t be approaching the nearly 40% where Barbarena currently sits.
Andre Muniz
The first spot on the list I am looking to invest in. Muniz is an insane grappler who historically has wasted no fight getting the fight to his realm. Uriah Hall still possesses big power, but he is now 38 years old and was just ragdolled by Sean Strickland in the wrestling.
Holloway vs. Volkanovski
I think the winner of this fight has a great shot at the optimal. Volk has shown he can get there in every facet of the game, including takedowns, significant strikes and even knockdowns. He goes over 100 DK points so often, including 102.78 in the second part of this soon to be trilogy. I like Max as well, because after losing the first two, he knows he has to land more strikes if he is going to get the decision. I think we see him land at least 150 SS in a decision win, landing somewhere between 90 and 100 DK points.
Jalin Turner
Rostership projected super high almost due to his recent scores relative to his price in this matchup. Turner has really leveled up lately, but he takes on a super durable Brad Riddell, who is very tough to put away early. This one I understand, but I would be cautious getting too carried away, as a win isn’t a lock for the optimal; an 80- to 85-point decision win is also a possibility.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.
