Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 275 Teixiera vs. Prochazka. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest-rostered exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.
I’m doing an all-underdog eddition this week, with projected rostership at the top looking pretty efficient to me at this point.
Glover Teixeira
The old man has been an underdog his whole journey to the title, and he comes in as a dog yet again. Jiri Prochazka is a super talented and explosive striker, but to say his wrestling is bad might be putting it nicely. We’ve seen him be extremely vulnerable in the grappling realm as recently as his last fight against Dominick Reyes. Concerningly, both Santino Defranco and Henry Cejudo, who worked with him in Arizona leading up to this fight, have voiced that he doesn’t really have any interest in working on his wrestling and doesn’t think it’s important. If Teixeira can get in on a TD without getting cracked, he should be able to really have his way on the mat, per usual for him.
Na Liang
Na is a fighter with massive upside who seems to be going a bit overlooked. She has started incredibly fast in literally all of her fights, blitzing the opponent and spamming pretty powerful takedowns. Her top control is quite good, but her frenetic pace does lead her to make positional mistakes from time to time. Her pace is only sustainable for just over a round, but I feel pretty good about her being able to land takedowns and have early success against Gomez Juarez. Hopefully she can get the finish and put up a big score.
Kyung Ho Kang
A pretty solid all-around fighter but makes fights closer than they need to be by not maximizing his win condition. He has an obvious grappling path here if he should choose to take it. I do worry a bit about his overall upside as he doesn’t have much finishing ability.
Jacob Malkoun
A big underdog here against Brendan Allen. Allen is the better striker and is definitely a very talented grappler. The X-factor here is that Malkoun is extremely committed to wrestling and has insane cardio, which isn’t Allen’s strongest suit. It will be very interesting to see how Allen’s TD defense holds up, and what he is able to do once the fight hits the mat. Malkoun knows the formula, it is just a question of whether he can execute another top control clinic, this time against a talented grappler.
Jake Matthews
Now a 15-fight UFC vet, well-rounded with a wrestling/grappling advantage here against Andre Fialho, who is very much a striker. He’s shown the ability multiple times to land 4 takedowns in a fight, which gives him some DK upside here if he sticks to that gameplan.
Ramona Pascual
Terrible fighter, but gets an opponent in Joselyne Edwards who has shown really bad TD defense and a propensity to get stuck on bottom. I hate playing fighters that are this bad, but Edwards doesn’t really have any power or dynamic finishing ability to worry me too much. Pascual landed 3 takedowns in her debut, but she will need to get it going earlier in rounds if she wants to win fights.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to FTN Daily once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.
