Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest-rostered exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat sheet exposures late Friday or early Saturday.
Charles Oliveira/Justin Gaethje
(See the MadLab DFS breakdown of this fight!)
I will have close to 100% exposure here. Both guys bring high output and tons of finishing ability. Line feels about right to me, Gaethje is electric on the feet and Olivera has so many weapons that makes him dangerous literally everywhere.
Mike Chandler
Tony Ferguson is total dust at this point. He’s lost 11 straight rounds. Bad. Chandler has the power to put him out early, can easily take him down if he wants to, and showed in the Gaethje fight that he has plenty of heart and cardio to go a really hard three rounds.
Carla Esparza
One of the best wrestlers in WMMA history goes up against Rose Namajunas, who just got significantly outgrappled by Zhang Weili, who is not known at all for wrestling. Esparza has a very clear and obvious path to victory and is almost certainly optimal in a win based on her grappling heavy approach.
Joe Lauzon/Cowboy Cerrone
This should be extremely fast-paced for as long as it lasts. Both are action fighters, and both are very old in their careers with significant durability concerns. An early stoppage either way would not be the least bit surprising in this matchup.
Randy Brown
Brown is a very talented striker who uses his length well. He is actually quite well-rounded and has shown his grappling chops in the UFC as well. While we can’t always count on him to wrestle, he will have a huge edge against Khaos Williams if this hits the mat. I give the power advantage to Williams, but favor Brown everywhere else.
Quick thoughts
Melissa Gatto
Her grappling is super legit and her striking looks better every time out. Tracy Cortez always looks to wrestle, but I envision her being extremely uncomfortable once she gets Gatto down. I think Gatto lands the submission or forces this into a striking match that she is able to edge out.
Journey Newson
I bet this early in the week. He should have a big power advantage and gets a much easier matchup than he is used to so far in his UFC career. A KO win would not surprise me at all.
Ariane Carnelossi/Fernie Garcia
Carnelossi and Garia are currently both projecting to be pretty chalky this weekend, and I may not have any. I think Loopy Godinez matches up really well against Carnelossi and I obviously have a bet on Journey beating Fernie.
Blagoy Ivanov/Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Ivanov seems unkillable; he has survived a knife to the chest and took all of Derrick Lewis’s best shots and survived. De Lima is a quick starter, but unless he is the one that can finally put Ivanov down, there is a good chance he gasses late and gets finished.
I’ll be posting my final exposures to the FTN website once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well.
