Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie. After a rare week off last week for the UFC, the biggest promotion in the fight game returns this weekend with a massive Pay-Per-View offering including two title fights in Jacksonville, Fla.
We currently have 13 fights scheduled for Saturday night’s event, including two five-round title fights. In the main event, Alexander Volkanovski will look to defend his featherweight title for the third time as he carries a hefty favorite price tag against a perennial contender and legend of the sport, Chan Sung Jung. In the co-main event, Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan will unify their belts in a rematch of their controversial first meeting that took place more than a year ago. Elsewhere on the card, intriguing prospects Khamzat Chimaev and Ian Garry return to the octagon as sizable favorites despite facing their toughest tests to date. Additionally, Tecia Torres and Mackenzie Dern will meet in a main card bout that carries massive stakes at strawweight. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.
High Tier: Alexander Volkanovski, $9,500
Volkanovski easily projects as the highest-scoring fighter on Saturday night’s slate, and despite his lofty price tag at $9,500, I’ll still be starting lots of my builds with the Australian champion. Volkanovski has a potential five-round floor and racks up tons of volume statistics, which boosts his fantasy value. Volkanovski has landed a combined 508 strikes over his last three title fights and averaged 111 DK points against tougher competition than what he’s set to face against The Korean Zombie. Lastly, I’m not convinced Volkanovski will carry the highest rostership in the player pool Saturday, as people are likely going to be jamming in Khamzat Chimaev and Petr Yan at slightly cheaper price tags. In my opinion, Volkanovski is deserving of being the highest-rostered fighter on the slate and that’s where he’ll lie in my exposures.
Mid-Tier: Mackenzie Dern, $8,200
It’s rare that I look at the mid-range on DraftKings and find a fighter I think is both more likely to win than their betting odds/DFS price indicates, while also carrying a ton of finishing upside. However, Mackenzie Dern fits that description to a tee this week. Dern is a BJJ ace and although her wrestling and striking are in need of improvement if she wants to become a champion, her matchup against Tecia Torres this weekend is a winnable one and if the fight hits the ground. I expect Dern to find a finish.
Low Tier: Mark Madsen, $7,800
There are two fighters in the low tier of pricing this weekend who stand out to me as fighters with roughly a coinflip chance to win their fight and have the ability to land multiple takedowns. The first one is Marcin Tybura, who I think is an intriguing option against Jairzinho Rozenstruik as a grappler vs. a KO-or-bust striker, but I worry about the pace of that fight and the chances that we get a staring contest. The other option who I think has roughly a 50% chance to win this weekend while employing a wrestling-heavy gameplan is Mark Madsen. Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling and has landed over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career and faces Vinc Pichel, who has horrific takedown defense at just 25%. Similarly to Dern, Madsen is a one-dimensional fighter in the sense that he doesn’t have much to offer in the cage outside his wrestling, but there are arguments to be made that his inability to control opponents on the ground can actually help his DFS value due to the fact that Madsen will have to land multiple takedowns per round in order to win them.
