Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 272 in Las Vegas. Following an exciting fight night card with many finishes, we have a solid PPV offering that makes for a fun slate on DraftKings with many fights and pricing decisions.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Jacoby, -200; Oleksiejczuk, +170
Jacoby is coming off a decision win over John Allan in November. He has yet to lose inside the UFC octagon since making his return to the roster in 2020. He comes from a high-level kickboxing background but has always struggled to defend takedowns. He is not much of a power striker, but he does have some heavy leg kicks and will repeatedly look to beat up the legs of Oleksiejczuk.
Oleksiejczuk is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Shamil Gamzatov and is currently on a two-fight win streak. He is a powerful boxer and similar to Jacoby, never looks to grapple so I am expecting a striking match.
I think this fight is more competitive than the pricing suggests although I do favor the volume and cardio of Jacoby over 15 minutes which makes me slightly favor him in this matchup. Jacoby by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on this slate.
Devonte Smith vs. Ludovit Klein
Smith, -170; Klein, +150
Smith was scheduled to face Erick Gonzalez, but he pulled out of the fight and was replaced by Ludovit Klein. Smith is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Jamie Mullarkey his last time out in October. He basically death gassed after the first round, so it was only a matter of time before wilting in that fight. Smith is a technical boxer and powerful striker but there is little more to his game. Ten of his 11 wins have come by knockout and all of his fights have ended inside the distance.
Klein is coming off a third-round submission loss to Nate Landwehr in October. It has been quite the fall from grace for Klein who has lost two straight after knocking out Shane Young in his UFC debut. Both Smith and Klein have big power early in the fight and I expect them to stand and trade.
Both guys also have some cardio issues, but I favor Klein’s cardio slightly and he should be able to wrestle successfully if he wanted. I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings as an early knockout on either side is in play, but I will have a slight lean towards Klein for the cheaper price and wrestling upside. Klein by knockout is the official pick.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Tim Elliott
Ulanbekov, -255; Elliott, +205
Ulanbekov is coming off a split-decision victory over Allan Nascimento in October. He is a 14-1 prospect with his only loss coming against Zhalgas Zhumagulov back in 2018. He is primarily a grappler and averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. But his grappling has not been overly impressive to this point and his striking needs work.
Elliott is coming off a decision loss to Matheus Nicolau in October. At this point, we know what Elliott is going to bring to the fight. He comes from a wrestling background and averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes. He is going to move forward and put a pace on Ulanbekov who likely cannot keep up with his volume on the feet. I would also favor Elliott in the scrambles on the mat as well.
The only real concern with Elliott is his durability issues, but Ulanbekov is not much of a power puncher, so Elliott really just needs to avoid sticking his neck out there to get choked. Elliott by decision is the official pick and he is one of my favorite underdogs of the slate.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Brian Kelleher
Nurmagomedov, -720; Kelleher, +500
Nurmagomedov is one of the most exciting prospects in MMA right now. He is 13-0 and six of his 13 wins have come by submission. But what makes him so dangerous is that it’s not just his Dagestan wrestling style, but his high-level striking as well. He dominated Sergey Morozov in his UFC debut in January of last year and now gets a veteran test in “Boom” Kelleher.
Kelleher is coming off a decision victory over Kevin Croom in January and is currently on a two-fight win streak. Kelleher is almost always going to handle the low-level prospects that they put him up against, but the real prospects can pass the test. Guys like Montel Jackson, Cody Stamann and Ricky Simon have all beat Kelleher on their way up the division.
Outside of Kelleher snatching up a random guillotine (which I doubt), Nurmagomedov should really have his way in this matchup. Nurmagomedov by submission is the official pick.
Mariya Agapova vs. Maryna Moroz
Agapova, -210; Moroz, +175
Agapova is coming off an impressive showing last October when she beat Sabina Mazo by third-round submission. Agapova is a high-volume striker with eight of her 10 career wins coming inside the distance. She is mostly known for getting upset by Shana Dobson, which was the biggest upset in WMMA history. She looked much better in her last fight though and the cardio did not seem to be an issue. However, she and Moroz have gone back and forth in the media as there is some known bad blood between them, so it is possible Agapova fights more emotional, which could make things dicey.
Moroz is coming off a decision victory over Mayra Bueno Silva in March of 2020 and will be coming off a two-year layoff in this fight. Moroz is a decent striker with capable grappling as well but struggles to defend takedowns.
I expect this fight to be competitive in the striking with Agapova landing a little more than Moroz along with the more powerful shots as well. I think Agapova will be more likely to land a takedown or two as well which makes me favor her in this matchup. Agapova by decision is the official pick.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Nicolae Negumereanu
Nzechukwu, -145; Negumereanu, +125
Nzechukwu is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Da Un Jung in November. He is a one-dimensional striker and extremely long for the division with an 83-inch reach. But he is another one of those fighters who does not manage distance well and use his length to an advantage. He consistently gets backed up against the cage and will give up takedowns against capable wrestlers.
Negumereanu is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Ike Villanueva in October. He is currently on a two-fight win streak after dropping his UFC debut back in early 2019. He does not inspire much confidence either as he is a punching bag on the feet despite his strong durability. He does have a wrestling background and should have a grappling advantage if he can get the fight to the mat. Nzechukwu is hard to control on the mat though, so this is not an easy smash spot for the underdog.
Overall, this is a sloppy fight that has a wide range of outcomes, but I am more so expecting a low scoring decision. I have a little more interest on Negumereanu for the cheaper price and possible takedown upside, but this will not be a core target for me on DraftKings.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan
Rodriguez, -255; Yan, +205
Rodriguez is coming off an impressive main event win over Mackenzie Dern where she largely dominated outside of a few moments on the mat. Rodriguez is one of the easiest fighters to break down in that she is a technical striker with legitimate power for this division. However, she has always struggled at defending takedowns and I doubt that ever changes. But while the fight plays out on the feet, she is going to throw in volume and do some of her best work in the clinch with her powerful knees and elbows.
Yan is coming off her first loss in the UFC at the hands of Carla Esparza who TKO’d her in round two of the fight. She is similar to Rodriguez in that she is primarily a striker and will throw in high volume. She has also struggled against better wrestlers and grapplers but has also shown an ability to mix in some wrestling if she has that advantage. I believe she does have that advantage here and if she starts getting beat up in the clinch then I think we see her look to mix in the wrestling and take Rodriguez down. I expect the striking to be very competitive as Yan has power of her own and these two are both willing to trade in the pocket.
This is a close fight and has the potential to be fight of the night material. It’s possible Rodriguez lands something that hurts Yan but she has historically been durable, and this is a weight class that we generally do not see that many finishes in despite Rodriguez recent TKO over Amanda Ribas. Because I expect the striking to be so close and Yan has shown a willingness to mix in takedowns, I favor the underdog in this matchup and will have more exposure to her on DraftKings. Yan by decision is the official pick.
Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Turner, -140; Mullarkey, +120
Turner is coming off an exciting first-round submission victory over Uros Medic his last time out in September. He is now on a three-fight win streak with all three wins coming inside the first two rounds. Turner is very long for the division and has some serious knockout power with eight of his 11 wins coming by knockout. He will have a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup over Mullarkey and should have the advantage while the fight plays out on the feet.
However, Mullarkey has continuously looked to land takedowns in his fights and averages 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. But I think he will struggle initially to take Turner down as Turner should have the strength advantage and has shown improvements each time out with his wrestling and ground game.
This is an excellent fight to target on DraftKings as both fighters are typically “kill or be killed” style fighters. I will be targeting both sides, but I favor Turner’s power and expect him to land repeatedly during the striking exchanges as Mullarkey tends to load up and not move his head at all. Turner by knockout is the official pick.
Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy
Spivac, -220; Hardy, +180
Spivac is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Tom Aspinall in September that snapped a three-fight winning streak. Spivac is a well-rounded prospect for the Heavyweight division as he is a capable striker and will mix in the takedowns and has shown a solid ground game against inferior competition. Where he has struggled has been against big power punchers or better grapplers.
Hardy would obviously fall into the first category rather than the second. However, Hardy has turned into more of a technical point fighter rather than the aggressive wild power shots we saw from him early in his career. Especially, coming off a knockout loss, I doubt we see Hardy get overly aggressive early against Spivac, which would likely be his best chance at winning.
I expect Spivac to be putting out more volume and moving forward and the control time along with mixing in the grappling will be key for him to wear on Hardy and tax his cardio. If Spivac is having success with the grappling like I expect then he likely finds a finish in rounds two or three. Spivac by submission is the official pick.
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira
Holland, -265; Oliveira, +215
Holland is coming off a no contest against Kyle Daukaus in October, but the real ones know he lost that fight. Previously, he had dropped two straight decisions to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. Aside from the nonstop trash talk throughout his fights, one thing is very clear and that is that he cannot stop takedowns. He is a good striker and manages distance very well and uses his length to his advantage, but any competent wrestler is taking him down at will.
Fortunately for him, Oliveira is not much of a wrestler as he averages just one takedown over his last four fights combined. He is capable of landing them but more recently is willing to strike and does not have the volume or power to match Holland on the feet.
Holland should cruise here in what should be primarily a striking match. He is always a risk to spend time on his back, but I doubt Oliveira is the guy to do that and I have no interest in backing a declining fighter on the wrong end of the 30 who has lost six of his last eight fights. Holland by decision is the official pick but there are better fighters to target this week on DraftKings.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Edson Barboza
Mitchell, -150; Barboza, +130
Mitchell is coming off a nearly a year and a half layoff since he beat Andre Fili in October of 2020. He is an undefeated prospect and has won four straight in the UFC since winning the Ultimate Fighter. Of his 14 career victories, nine have come by submission and that is clearly his best path to victory as he will look to land takedowns, bank control time and hunt for submissions. Up to this point, he has looked excellent with relentless grappling, some highlight finishes and a hellish pace as well. However, that has come against the lesser talent of the division except for Andre Fili in his last fight.
Barboza is coming off a disappointing knockout loss to Giga Chikadze last August. Barboza is clearly the toughest test to date for Mitchell as he is a battle tested veteran with dangerous finishing potential and good takedown defense. He will have a clear striking advantage in this matchup, and I expect him to beat up the legs and body of Mitchell and punish him for his reckless entries when closing the distance.
Mitchell will need to get this fight to the ground and keep it there for as long as possible, but Barboza has historically had good takedown defense and been difficult to control. I am siding with Barboza to give him the veteran lesson this weekend. Barboza by knockout is the official pick but I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano
Dos Anjos, -188; Moicano, +152
Rafael Fiziev pulled out of this fight due to COVID-19, and many fighters threw their name in the hat to step in on short notice to fight dos Anjos. In his prime, dos Anjos was one of the toughest dudes across the Lightweight and Welterweight divisions. However, he is coming off nearly a year and a half layoff and turns 38 later this year, which are both causes of concern for me. Despite those concerns, I do think this is a potential winnable matchup for him. Sure, it is a new opponent, but he was already training for a five-round fight and Moicano is taking the fight on just four days’ notice.
Fortunately for Moicano, his fights typically do not take that long as he has never fought outside of the third round despite having multiple main event bouts. Moicano is coming off an impressive second-round submission over Alexander Hernandez just three weeks ago. He is typically big for the weight class but now fighting a catchweight at 160 pounds against RDA, who previously fought at 170, so the size factor should not mean much in this fight. I do expect him to land takedowns, as dos Anjos sports just a 58% takedown defense in the UFC. Both guys have great jiu jitsu, but I would give Moicano more potential to finish it on the mat although I would be surprised if either guy won by submission. The striking should be very competitive as dos Anjos is a bit more technically sound, but Moicano will be landing more often. The last thing I will say is that this would typically be more of a decision type of fight, but I have concerns with the durability on both sides and in a five-round fight, there are many ways we can get there on DraftKings.
This is an obvious fight to target on DraftKings due to both fighters being priced under $8,000 with the late add. I will have heavy exposure to both sides with a slight lean toward dos Anjos as the best point per dollar play on the slate. Dos Anjos by TKO is the official pick.
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Covington, -340; Masvidal, +260
Make no mistake about it: There is some bad blood between these former training partners, and I am expecting a very entertaining fight Saturday evening. Covington is coming off the title shot loss to Kamaru Usman back at UFC 268 in November. He is still clearly a top-three fighter in this division for my money. He puts on a high pace that many opponents cannot keep up with and he averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes as well.
Masvidal is also coming off a loss to current champion Kamaru Usman as he was knocked out back at UFC 261 last April. Masvidal is a very entertaining fighter and personality, but I feel his name value is bigger than his actual skill in the octagon. That’s not to say he is not talented, because he is, but he does not belong in the elite category of the best welterweights.
I think he could have some success with leg kicks, and he is explosive enough early to possible hurt Covington, but Covington is historically very durable and over the course of 25 minutes should be able to land takedowns and put a pace on Masvidal that he will not be able to match. Covington by decision is the official pick.
