Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 272: Covington vs. Masvidal. After a few consecutive fight night events with lesser-known fighters looking to make the most of their opportunity to shine, the UFC shifts gears to a stacked PPV event this weekend.
Saturday night, T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will host UFC 272, a 13-fight card headlined by two of the biggest stars in the welterweight division: Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal. This is a grudge match between two ex-teammates turned enemies following a falling out at American Top Team where they trained together for many years. In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos will look to pick up a second consecutive victory as he takes on fellow Brazilian Renato Moicano, who steps up to take the fight on just five days’ notice, replacing Rafael Fiziev. Elsewhere on the card, bright prospects such as Umar Nurmagomedov and Mariya Agapova will be featured, along with some awesome action fights such as Kevin Holland vs. Bryce Mitchell. I currently have four bets for this card and may add a few more prior to Saturday night.
I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Tim Elliott Odds
Ulanbekov -240 ,Elliott +195 , DraftKings Sportsbook
Ulanbekov enters his third UFC fight this weekend with a 2-0 record on paper, but he’s been in two very competitive bouts inside the octagon. Despite Ulanbekov’s record, he hasn’t faced a great level of competition to this point inside of the UFC and his decision wins over Bruno Silva and Allan Nascimento both played out much closer than the pre-fight odds had seemed to indicate. Physically, Ulambekov is pretty long for the flyweight division with a 70-inch reach, but he is primarily a wrestler in terms of his style. Ulanbekov has landed nine takedowns through two fights, but he does not do a ton of damage on top and prefers to stay in his opponent’s guards. That style is not only lacking in entertainment but also a dangerous game to play with the judges, as evidenced by Ulanbekov unanimously losing round two to Nascimento despite having over four minutes of control time.
Elliott will make his 17th walk to the octagon this weekend and is coming off a competitive decision loss to Matheus Nicolau. He had won his previous two bouts. Elliott has essentially faced anybody and everybody at 125 pounds over the last decade and although his UFC record is just 6-10, he has fought an extremely tough strength of schedule and has challenged for the flyweight title. Stylistically, Elliott can best be described as a “janky” striker, as it doesn’t always look pretty but he throws enough volume to make things work. However, Elliott is primarily a wrestler and has a high-level wrestling background which he has leaned on heavily, landing nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes inside the UFC. The obvious red flag on Elliott throughout his career has been fight IQ, as he’s stuck his next directly into guillotine chokes or conceded position at inopportune moments more times than I can count.
While it never feels great to bet on Elliott because he’s so liable to shoot himself in the foot with his decision-making, this is just a wild price on the moneyline. Ulanbekov is a skilled wrestler, but we can’t overlook how close his first two UFC fights were against lower-level talents than Elliott. I expect this fight to be very wrestling-heavy, and there simply aren’t many guys in the UFC who are going to consistently outscramble Elliott. While I favor Ulanbekov’s length and technical boxing abilities while striking, it’s worth noting that he really struggled against the leg kicks of Bruno Silva, and that’s a weapon that Elliott has consistently used throughout the entirety of his career. All in all, I think these guys are nearly identical in terms of their skill level, but having Ulanbekov as a small favorite due to his intangibles (IQ, Decision-Making) makes some sense. At +220 though, this was an easy bet to make on Elliott, who is super live for an upset on Saturday.
Bet: Tim Elliott +220 2x until +220, 1.5x until +195, 1x until +175 (Placed Feb. 27 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Edson Barboza Odds
Mitchell -155, Barboza +135, DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s been nearly 18 months since we last saw Arkansas’ Mitchell competing inside the octagon, but he returns this weekend for the toughest test of his career thus far. Mitchell is 14-0 professionally at 27 years old including five wins inside the UFC. Stylistically, Mitchell is a grappling specialist. He entered the UFC as a very strong top player in jiu-jitsu with the tendency to get to unorthodox positions and confuse opponents on the mat. Since entering the promotion though, Mitchell has added an improved wrestling base to his game, which makes it easier for him to show off his grappling once he grounds opponents. Mitchell’s striking remains a work in progress, but he does a good job avoiding distance exchanges with opponents.
Barboza is coming off a knockout loss to Giga Chikadze in a main event last August but had previously put together two wins at 145 pounds after spending many years in the lightweight division of the UFC. Barboza is a kickboxing specialist who has some of the best knockouts in UFC history. Barboza is lethal when at knicking range with opponents but has historically struggled against people that are able to close the distance against him and pressure him. It’s worth noting that despite Barboza remaining in great physical shape, he is 36 years old and has been in a lot of back-and-forth wars throughout his career.
I oftentimes think people become too simplistic when breaking down MMA fights, but this is truly your classic striker vs. grappler matchup. While I concede that Barboza has a massive advantage if and when this fight is in kickboxing range, Mitchell has the tools with his improved wrestling to get this fight to the ground. While Barboza sports a solid 78% takedown defense throughout his career, he has really struggled to get back to his feet once put on his back, which is an area that Mitchell excels in. I expect Mitchell to either be all the way out of Barboza’s striking range or all the way in on Barboza’s legs trying to get takedowns in this spot, and I just trust the American to spend more time in the realm of the fight that he should dominate in. Once Mitchell lands takedowns I expect him to hold control for the entirety of rounds or even force a submission tap out of Barboza.
Bet: Bryce Mitchell 1x until -150 (Placed March 1)
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds
Covington -335, Masvidal +260, DraftKings Sportsbook
This is an excerpt taken from my main event preview: UFC 272 – Covington vs. Masvidal Betting Odds, Picks and Preview
This is a fight that has seemingly been building ever since Covington and Masvidal were teammates and their relationship began going downhill. However, the matchup has gained a ton of traction since Covington was forced out of American Top Team and switched gyms to MMA Masters. Once Covington and Masvidal were no longer teammates, they began trashing each other publicly to the media and have gotten so much attention that they’re now headlining a PPV event with their grudge match.
Inside the cage, Covington has been mostly dominant throughout his 14 fight UFC career outside of an early slip-up against Warlley Alves in 2015, and more recently his two matchups against Kamaru Usman. Covington is widely considered the second-best welterweight on the planet after giving Usman two competitive matchups, but it’s worth noting that he currently has no wins over ranked welterweights on the UFC roster. Covington’s last win came against Tyron Woodley in 2020, prior to his most recent matchup against Usman in November. Stylistically, Covington is primarily a wrestler whose best weapon is the pace at which he pushes opponents. While Covington will always be a wrestler first ever since his collegiate career at Oklahoma State, it’s worth noting that his striking has improved a ton since his UFC debut in 2014. Covington remains a takedown specialist, averaging well over one takedown per round throughout his UFC career, but it’s worth noting that he isn’t a great control grappler and often allows opponents back to their feet. Despite that, Covington uses his rinse-and-repeat takedown style as a weapon since it gasses out his opponents and Covington has some of the best cardio in MMA.
Masvidal of course rose to fame following his five-second highlight-reel knockout of Ben Askren in 2019, but he has been around since the Strikeforce days. This will be Masvidal’s 51st career fight and his 23rd inside the UFC octagon. Masvidal has dropped consecutive matchups to Kamaru Usman coming into this fight. He took his first fight against Masvidal on short notice and lost a fairly one-sided decision. In the rematch, Usman landed a massive overhand right on Masvidal and handed the veteran just his second career knockout loss. Stylistically, Masvidal has some of the best boxing inside the UFC and is known for his boxing-heavy striking style. However, most people tend to think that Masvidal being primarily a standup fighter means he isn’t a well-rounded martial artist, which couldn’t be further from the truth. While Masvidal is unlikely to offensively wrestle in any of his fights, he is an improving defensive wrestler and has solid defensive grappling once fights hit the ground. If there’s a knock on Masvidal, it’s that he isn’t a massive hitter at 170 pounds and has slowed down a bit over longer fights throughout his career. Masvidal is a solid fighter, but he has struggled when facing legitimately elite competition.
Once we strip away all the narratives and stories coming into this fight, this is a very straightforward matchup to break down in the sense that we know the objective of each fighter. Covington’s ideal fight is one where he’s able to break opponents with his pressure and spam different types of kicks and strikes to set up takedown attempts. Once his opponents get up, Covington is going to try and drag them back down as a way to deplete their cardio and grind them out.
Meanwhile, this is a fight that Masvidal knows needs to stay on the feet for him to have a chance to win. Masvidal is likely going to have to stuff takedowns early on in this fight while still maintaining enough energy down the stretch of the championship rounds to remain competitive if the fight hasn’t been finished yet. While Masvidal is of course capable of defending takedowns and has a very underrated get-up game once fights hit the mat, it’s hard not to favor Covington by a large margin in this bout. Despite Masvidal being the more traditional standup fighter in this matchup, Covington has a unique ability to push a crazy pace while in kickboxing range, and that in addition to a large number of takedown attempts should be enough to slow Masvidal down and win this fight down the stretch.
While I favor Covington, I do not think there is value on his current betting line that implies he wins this fight over 75% of the time. However, I do think there is a lot of value in Covington decision props and betting overs in the totals market for this fight. With Masvidal coming off a knockout loss to Usman and Covington’s most recent victory coming by finish it feels as though the market is massively overrating the finishing ability of Covington. He only finished Woodley due to an injury and prior to that fight, Covington’s last five wins had come by decision. When you add in the fact that Masvidal has only been finished in 27% of his losses, it becomes clear that this fight is likely to hit the championship rounds, and if a finish comes early, it’s likely from the underdog.
Bet: Colby Covington/Jorge Masvidal Over 4.5 Rounds -125 1.5x until -135, 1x until -150 (Placed Feb. 24 at FoxBet)
