Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 271 in Texas. This is a very fun PPV offering we have Saturday with the highly anticipated main event between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker along with a few exciting prospects and matchups throughout the card.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Jeremiah Wells vs. Mike Mathetha
Wells, -245; Matheta, +185
Wells is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Warlley Alves in his UFC debut last June. He is a very exciting fighter to watch with explosive power and a legitimate ground game as well. He trains out of Renzo Gracie in Philadelphia and holds a black belt in BJJ. He will have a significant wrestling and grappling advantage over Mathetha in this matchup.
The “Blood Diamond” is just a 3-0 prospect making his UFC debut. He comes from a kickboxing background and trains out of City Kickboxing gym in New Zealand. He does carry some power but has an awkward striking style and overextends on a lot of his punches. We have not seen him for two years, so I would expect to see some improvements, but this is just a bad matchup for him against Wells.
Wells can slug it out on the feet but his clear path to victory is his grappling. He is going to show off some of that notorious top time clinic like most of the Renzo Gracie fighters do, and I think he finds a finish on the mat. Wells by submission is the official pick and this is a good fight to target on DraftKings as I am expecting a finish.
Sergey Morozov vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Morozov, -210; Silva de Andrade, +175
Morozov is coming off his first UFC victory with a decision win over Khalid Taha last July. He bounced back nicely after getting dominated by Umar Nurmagomedov in his UFC debut. Morozov is a well-rounded fighter who has some power on the feet and will look to mix in the takedowns as well. His defensive grappling is an issue when he faces opponents with a decent ground game but overall, a solid fighter in multiple areas.
Silva de Andrade is coming off a first-round knockout over Gaetano Pirrello in October. Silva de Andrade is a very experienced fighter and well-rounded wherever the fight goes. He has legitimate fight stopping power with 20 of his 27 career wins coming by knockout. He is liable to give up a takedown or two, but he is generally difficult to control and able to reverse position or work back to his feet.
I expect Silva de Andrade to be the more active fighter in the striking exchanges and I think this fight is just going to be very competitive overall. At this price, you are expecting Morozov to have wrestling success and I am not fully convinced that he can. If this turns in to more of a striking match, then Silva de Andrade could have the advantage and I am considering him as a live underdog in this spot. Silva de Andrade by decision is the official pick.
AJ Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun
Dobson, -147; Malkoun, +127
Dobson is making his UFC debut fresh off a first-round submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. He is a 6-0 prospect with five of those wins coming inside the first round. He trains out of strong style MMA and is clearly going to look to bring the action Saturday night. I have concerns with Dobson as his level of competition is very low and his cardio is untested for the most part.
Malkoun is coming off a decision victory over Abdul Razak Alhassan last April. He landed an impressive eight takedowns in that fight and that should be the gameplan here against Dobson as well. Malkoun is a grappler first and should have a clear advantage if he can get the fight to the mat. Despite having no submission victories on his record, he has threatened multiple times and holds a brown belt in BJJ.
I would not be surprised to see him get his first in this matchup. Dobson is live to hurt him early on the feet but if Malkoun can withstand the early storm and close distance to initiate that grappling then he should get his hand raised Saturday night. Malkoun by submission is the official pick.
Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant
Ulberg, -190; Cherant, +165
Ulberg is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in March of last year in his UFC debut. On paper that does not look great, but Ulberg unloaded on him in the first round and emptied his gas tank. He landed just under 150 significant strikes in just over eight minutes of cage time before exhausting himself and losing the fight. He is a powerful kickboxer, which seems to be par for the course at City Kickboxing gym. However, his cardio is still a concern for me moving forward, and we have yet to see his grappling tested at this level.
Cherant is coming off a first-round knockout loss to William Knight in August. He is now 0-2 in the UFC and has been finished in the first round in both of those fights. He is more of a grappler with five submission victories to his record, but he has powerful kicks while the fight plays out at distance as well. My issues with Cherant are that he lacks activity at many stages in fights and his durability is a red flag as well, having been finished in all three of his career losses. I do not want to write him off completely, because if he can engage in grappling against Ulberg then he should have an advantage there, but I cannot trust him to do that and if the fight plays out at range, then he is a sizable underdog.
Ulberg by knockout is the official pick.
Renato Moicano vs. Alexander Hernandez
Moicano, -180; Hernandez, +155
Moicano is coming off a second-round submission victory over Jai Herbert last June. He is 2-1 since moving up to the lightweight division with his only loss being a knockout at the hands of Rafael Fiziev. Moicano has always had very slick jiu jitsu and is always dangerous if the fight hits the mat. However, his durability is a concern for me as he has been knocked out three times in his career and continues to have a reckless fighting style.
Hernandez is coming off a first-round knockout win over Mike Breeden in October. Hernandez has always had the skillset to be a top-10 fighter in this division, but it seems like with him it is more the mental hurdles that he needs to overcome. He is a technical kickboxer with fast hands and heavy leg kicks but does not react well to being hit and has been knocked out twice in his career. Additionally, his activity is frustrating much of the time as he rarely is the aggressive fighter in any matchup, even when he has a clear advantage. He holds a brown belt in BJJ and has never been submitted and has the strength to stay alive in the grappling exchanges. But I have concerns that he will not do enough on the feet unless he hurts Moicano.
This is a tough fight to have a strong read on either side with the concerns I have but I do feel confident that Moicano is being overvalued at this price and I consider Hernandez to be a live underdog. I am just not sure if I want to back Hernandez too heavily which makes this fight mostly a pass with some exposure to both sides and a lean towards the underdog. Hernandez by decision is the official pick, and do not forget we have Texas judges this week so could get the homer nod if it’s close.
Ronnie Lawrence vs. Leomana Martinez
Lawrence, -305; Martinez, +240
Lawrence is coming off an impressive debut victory over Vince Cachero in February of last year. He landed eight takedowns in that fight after landing 12 takedowns in his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, which earned him his UFC contract. I refer to him as the mini-Merab in reference to Merab Dvalishvili in that he has a crazy work rate and will relentlessly look to land takedowns and wear on his opponents. Similar to Dvalishvili, Lawrence’s striking is not great, and he is liable to get hurt if he stays standing too long. Fortunately for him, his aggressive wrestling style and pace is often too much for his opponents as he has excellent cardio as well.
Martinez is coming off a split-decision victory over Guido Cannetti in August in a fight where he was a sizable favorite. Martinez is a powerful striker with eight of his nine career wins coming by knockout with five of those inside the first round. However, outside of his early striking power, he does not have many other tools. His defensive grappling is a red flag, and he is likely going to spend most of this fight on his back.
I will have exposure to both sides as Martinez does have knockout upside in Round 1 although it is unlikely, but he will be major leverage versus the popular Lawrence. I plan to be overweight to this fight as a whole with Lawrence being a core play due to his high-upside fighting style. Lawrence by decision is the official pick.
Maxim Grishin vs. William Knight
Grishin, -170; Knight, +150
Grishin is coming off a decision loss to Dustin Jacoby last February. After coming over to the UFC as a highly touted light heavyweight with an impressive record, he is just 1-2 in the UFC with his lone win being against Gadzhimurad Antigulov who was released from the UFC and is currently on a five-fight losing streak. Needless to say, things have not been great since coming over to the UFC for the PFL veteran. I am not very high on Grishin personally. His volume is not great, and he never looks to wrestle or grapple so he is mostly relying on his power, which seems to be fading a bit at nearly 38 years old.
Knight is coming off a decision win over Alonzo Menifield in December. Knight is a specimen of an athlete and has obvious power if he can connect clean on his opponent. Additionally, he will look to mix in some takedowns as well, which is encouraging, although his technique is lacking as he mostly relies on his pure strength to muscle fighters to the ground. On the feet, I expect this to be a low-volume affair where Grishin can likely win the exchanges with his jab, but Knight only needs one shot to change the fight. I expect Knight to try to cage push and land takedowns, but Grishin should be able to defend them for the most part.
Overall, I am expecting an ugly fight where the round winner is not super clear, but I do see value in the underdog in Knight for finishing ability and the small potential to land takedowns. Knight by decision is the official pick, but there are much better fights to target on DraftKings with 15 fights this week.
Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell
Perez, -400; Schnell, +300
We last saw Perez at UFC 255 where he suffered a first-round loss to Deiveson Figueiredo for the 125-pound championship belt. He is a very well-rounded fighter and remains one of the elite guys in the flyweight division. He typically relies on his wrestling as he averages just under three takedowns per 15 minutes. The only real concern with Perez is his durability and his lack of awareness of sticking his neck out to be submitted.
Neither of those should be large concerns in this matchup against Schnell. Schnell is coming off a decision loss to Rogerio Bontorin at UFC 262 in May. He trains out of American Top Team and is a technical striker and capable submission grappler with eight of his 15 professional wins coming by submission. However, his durability is a real concern having been knocked out three times in his career. Additionally, he has always struggled to defend takedowns at just 50% in the UFC.
I expect Perez to land takedowns and control Schnell on the mat. Outside of him getting his neck caught again, he should take care of business on Saturday. Perez by decision is the official pick.
Casey O’Neil vs. Roxanne Modafferi
O’Neil, -365; Modafferi, +280
O’Neil is coming off a dominant showing with a second-round stoppage victory over Antonina Shevchenko in October. She is an 8-0 prospect that has displayed an impressive ground game through three UFC fights, all of which resulted in a finish. I really like O’Neil’s aggressive style and how she is always looking to finish the fight when she gets it to the mat. The only concern I have is that her striking still needs work both offensively and defensively. The type of opponent that can match her strength on the mat and beat her on the feet is going to likely expose her.
I am not sure Modafferi is the type of fighter that fits that build but I do see her being able to have some success in this matchup. For starters, Modafferi is a better striker and should have success with her jab while the fight plays out on the feet. O’Neil plays little defense and walks right into punches so that should come as no surprise. The concern with Modafferi is that she is liable to be taken down repeatedly and could spend half this fight on her back and if that’s the case then she probably gets finished. But I also think it is interesting as this will be the first time O’Neil has faced someone with a competent ground game, as the previous fighters she faced were below average or worse grapplers. Modafferi is well rounded and capable of reversing positions on the mat if O’Neil gets sloppy and she is a BJJ black belt in her own right.
I am probably looking forward to this fight more than most, but it is a great test for the promising prospect in O’Neil as Modafferi has derailed hype trains before. I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings as O’Neil always scores well in a victory and Modafferi is a live underdog at a cheap price. O’Neil by TKO is the official pick.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa
Arlovski, -157; Vanderaa, +137
Arlovski is coming off a decision victory over Carlos Felipe in October and is now on a two-fight win streak. At 43 years old, Arlovski has now won four of his last five fights and will look to keep the momentum going against the former Dana White’s Contender Series product, Vanderaa. Arlovski is a technical striker with decent volume for the division and moves well for his size. He will need to keep the fight on the feet where he can use his striking and footwork as they are his biggest advantages.
Vanderaa is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Alexandr Romanov in October and is 1-2 in the UFC so far. He has a big frame and good enough cardio to fight hard for 15 minutes if needed. However, he cannot defend takedowns and rarely defends punches either. I could see him moving forward and eating a ton of jabs while trying to close distance.
This should be a competitive striking match, but I lean with the veteran in Arlovski, who is more battle-tested and more skilled. Arlovski by decision is the official pick, but there are much better fights to target on DraftKings this week.
Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Green, -145; Haqparast, +125
Green is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 in November. Green is as much entertaining as he is a skilled technical striker. His boxing is very good, and he will land in volume. He is also well-rounded and will look to mix in a few takedowns which should be key in this matchup.
Haqparast is coming off a decision loss to Dan Hooker in September at UFC 266. He was taken down three times in that fight and outclassed by Hooker from pillar to post for 15 minutes. Haqparast is a good boxer with fast hands and power, but he is one-dimensional and when he struggles to find his range, he is a very beatable fighter. He is going to comfortably out box the lower-level type matchups that he has had previously but when he faces legitimate opponents like Drew Dober and Hooker, he fails to meet the challenge.
I see this fight in a similar light in that Green is the better boxer and overall striker and his ability to mix in the wrestling is another avenue that he can go to for winning rounds. Green by decision is the official pick but I do not expect the winner to score great either way.
Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo
Phillips, -425; Rojo, +320
Phillips is coming off a majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva last July. That loss snapped a four-fight win streak for him despite coming very close to finishing Paiva in the first round. Phillips is a high-energy fighter that will throw caution to the wind in trying to land a heavy shot on the feet. But when he is at his best is when he is getting the fight to the ground as he averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a black belt in BJJ.
Rojo is arguably able to match or exceed the energy that Phillips brings so I am expecting this fight to be a banger. Rojo is looking to land in volume, but he does not play much defense and I expect both guys to land shots in the striking exchanges.
Where I see the biggest edge is with Phillips’ ground game. I expect him to land takedowns against Rojo and possibly find a finish on the mat. Rojo has been finished in five of his seven career losses including four submissions. Phillips by TKO is the official pick.
Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson
Cannonier, -170; Brunson, +150
Cannonier is coming off a main event victory over Kelvin Gastelum in August. Cannonier has historically been a fighter that I do not have a strong read on. He has a decent skillset as he is a powerful striker but does not land in volume, so he is typically relying on big moments to win rounds or finish fights. Additionally, he struggles to defend takedowns at just 62% and that will be tested in this matchup.
Brunson is coming off a third-round submission victory over Darren Till in September. He is currently on a five-fight win streak since losing to Israel Adesanya in 2018. Brunson is a high-level wrestler who will be looking to use his striking to close distance and look for takedowns. He averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes and should be able to replicate that game plan in this matchup. The issue with Brunson is his durability as he has been knocked out five times in his career and Cannonier has the power to hurt him at any moment. This is the classic style matchup where Brunson is likely winning until he gets knocked out or something similar to that.
You guys know me by now, and I am almost always siding with the wrestler in these types of matchups, especially when the other fighter is reliant on big moments to win the fight. Brunson by decision is the official pick but I will have some exposure to both sides with a moderate lean toward Brunson.
Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa
Lewis, -180; Tuivasa, +155
Lewis is coming off an impressive first-round knockout victory over Chris Daukaus in December. He has now won five of his last six fights with the only loss in that span coming against Ciryl Gane. Lewis fights are very easy to break down as we already know what to expect. He is one of the most dangerous power punchers in the UFC and defines the definition of “all it takes is one punch.” I am a fan of Lewis and enjoy his personality a lot, but it seems like I am always betting against him for whatever reason. It is just tough for me to back someone that only has one way to win especially with most of the athletes being more well-rounded.
Fortunately for Lewis, his opponent in this matchup has a similar fighting style in that he wants to stand and bang as well. Tuivasa is coming off an electric second-round knockout victory over Augusto Sakai that almost blew the roof off at UFC 269. He is now on a four-fight win streak with all four wins coming by knockout. Whoever can land clean first will likely win this fight, but I cannot help but have more exposure to Tuivasa, who I know has more tools and is willing to do more in the fight.
I will have some exposure to both sides as I am expecting the winner to win by knockout, but the pick is Tuivasa. This fight will not be a core target for me though as it is possible both guys gas out and we see a low-volume decision too.
Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker
Adesanya, -270; Whittaker, +230
Adesanya is set to defend his middleweight belt once again as he squares off in the highly anticipated rematch against Robert Whittaker. These two first fought back in 2019 at UFC 243 in Melbourne, Australia and Adesanya won by second-round knockout. Adesanya had most of his success countering Whittaker with powerful hooks despite having to eat a few big shots along the way. He will have a seven-inch reach advantage, and I expect the striking exchanges to play out similarly this time around with Whittaker darting in and out of the pocket and Adesanya looking to counter as he enters. Adesanya is one of the best fighters at managing distance and it will be up to Whittaker bring the fight to him or he will simply get beat at range.
The biggest difference in this fight to me is that Whittaker has shown a clear emphasis on his willingness to wrestle since the first time these guys fought. He has a clear wrestling and grappling advantage over Adesanya but did not shoot a single takedown in the first fight. However, since that fight, he has now attempted 22 takedowns over his last three fights. Giving up takedowns is a clear weakness for Adesanya as it was a big part of why he lost to Jan Blachowicz and it let Marvin Vettori be competitive over five rounds at UFC 263. Whittaker’s striking will be competitive on the feet and will need to focus on not staying in the pocket too long or overextending on his punches like he did the first time around. But now, with more of a willingness to wrestle, I consider him to be a very live underdog in this spot. He will be the more active fighter throwing more volume and if he can land a few takedowns mixed in there, I have no doubt he can win rounds against the champ.
I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings as the winner should score well regardless, but I am siding with the underdog in Whittaker to get the job done. Whittaker by decision is the official pick.
