Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2. The UFC is in the midst of a stretch of events on eight straight weekends and that continues this weekend for the second PPV of the year at the Toyota Center in Houston.
We currently have 14 fights scheduled for Saturday night’s event at Toyota Center. In the main event, Israel Adesanya will look to successfully defend his middleweight title for the fourth time against the man who he originally beat for undisputed gold in 2019: Robert Whittaker. In the co-main event, we have a heavyweight banger between fan favorites in Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. This appears to be a solid card for DFS purposes with some great prize pools around the industry. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High tier: Ronnie Lawrence, $9,300
Lawrence is just 1-0 inside the UFC but enters his second fight inside the octagon this weekend as a 3-1 favorite over Mana Martinez. Lawrence employs an extremely wrestling-heavy style inside the cage, as shown by his 20 combined takedowns between his victory on Contender Series and his UFC debut vs. Vince Cachero. Against Cachero, Lawrence put up an insane DK score of 135 points. While that’s obviously unlikely to repeat anytime soon, Lawrence is sure to shoot takedowns in bulk and fight at a very high pace this weekend against somebody who has struggled against good grapplers in the past. Lawrence projects as my favorite play on the slate.
Mid-tier: Renato Moicano, $8,500
I’ll be honest, the middle tier is difficult this week. There are no options that stand out as very strong plays, but a bunch of options that I think are solid and will be a part of my player pool. Moicano is one of the bigger favorites in this price range and in a fight that is favored to end inside the distance. Moicano does come with risk as he’s historically been a very inconsistent fighter. However, he is somebody who has scored extremely well for DFS purposes when he wins. Moicano has surpassed 100 DK points in all three of his most recent wins but has scored a combined 16 points over his last three losses. The fact of the matter this weekend though is that on a 14-fight slate we need to keep our focus on fighter upside, as GPP winning lineups will likely feature six fighters who win with a ceiling performance.
Low-Tier: Derek Brunson, $7,600
“Blonde Brunson” has been a cash cow for those backing him at the betting window as an underdog during his five-fight win streak recently at middleweight. However, he is up against a significant test this weekend against Jared Cannonier in a matchup that figures to have the winner face the winner of Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker. Brunson is the best pure wrestler that middleweight has to offer, and he will need to land takedowns early and often in this matchup. While that’s a difficult task, Brunson has landed 19 takedowns over his five-fight win streak and averaged 103 DK points. At $7,600, Brunson is very likely to be in the optimal lineup this weekend if he can pull off another upset Saturday. $9.
