UFC 270 DraftKings breakdown

We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 270 in Las Vegas. This is a very fun PPV offering we have Saturday with two title fights on the line along with a few exciting prospects and matchups throughout the card.

As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday. 

(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Hansen, – 260; Jasudavicius, +210

Hansen is coming off a decision loss to Cory McKenna in November that snapped a three-fight win streak. Hansen is just 22 years old and has only been fighting professionally for four years but does have some solid tools. She is a powerful boxer and has shown some good takedown entries as well. The concern with Hansen is that she is a punching bag on the feet and the right opponent will take advantage of that. 

Jasudavicius earned a contract with a decision victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. She is 32 years old but has only been fighting professionally for about two and a half years. She trains out of Niagara top team but also splits camp at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. She is 6-1 professionally with her only loss being a split-decision against current UFC fighter, Elise Reed. Jasudavicius has a similar skillset to Hansen in that she comes from an amateur boxing background but has shown some solid wrestling as well. Her best weapon is her knees in the clinch, and she will be the bigger fighter with a significant reach advantage.

I expect this to be a close fight, but I favor Hansen as she will have an edge in technique, and I expect her to have the bigger moments as well. Hansen by decision is the official pick. 

Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez

Frevola, -210; Valdez, +175

Frevola is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Terrance McKinney last June. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak but has faced a tough schedule in the UFC. Frevola is not exceptionally talented, but he has a solid wrestling base and has good cardio that can win fights at the low level and make you competitive against better competition. In this matchup in particular, that cardio should pay dividends as he faces UFC newcomer Valdez.

Valdez is another Dana White’s Contender Series winner, and his performance was very exciting but not pretty. He is notoriously known for being a finisher as he is 10-0 professionally with all 10 wins coming inside the distance. However, he is not very technical and seems to slow down in most of his fights outside of round one if he cannot find the finish. He has not paid the ultimate price for it yet, but Frevola seems to have the tools to make him pay if he can make it outside of round one.

I am always concerned with Frevola as he gets hurt a lot on the feet, so it is possible Valdez gets another early finish, but I am betting Frevola survives and takes over in rounds two and three. Frevola by decision is the official pick and this is a good fight to target as I am expecting the winner to score well on DraftKings.

Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez

Demopoulos, -110; Juarez, -110

Demopoulos is coming off a decision loss to JJ Aldrich in her UFC debut in August. She is a former LFA champion although I do not see her having much success at the UFC level. Her boxing defense is a massive concern as she is a punching bag in striking exchanges. She is, however, a tricky submission grappler as three of her six career wins have come by submission and holds a purple belt in BJJ. 

Juarez is another fighter I am not impressed with whatsoever. She is 37 years old, and despite having decent striking power, she is absolutely lost in grappling exchanges and Lupita Godinez was able to cut through her on the mat with ease in her debut.

This is one of those fights where either side has the potential to look like the value side in hindsight, but I have zero interest in this fight outside of a few shares of Demopoulos in multi-entry in case she pulls off an early submission. Demopoulos by decision is the official pick but this is an easy fight to pass on for the most part. 

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles

Morales, -125; Giles, +105

Morales is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last September. He came through as a sizable underdog in that fight and is 12-0 professionally with nine of his 12 wins coming by knockout. He is a decent boxer with legitimate power, but his level of competition leaves more to be desired. He also has a decent wrestling base and is likely making improvements at just 21 years old. The main concern with him is that he has only been out of round two once in his career and this is a significant step up in competition. 

Giles is coming off a second-round knockout to Dricus Du Plessis last July. Giles is a solid boxer in his own right but has notoriously been known to be too timid at times and not let his hands go. Additionally, his cardio is suspect, and he has shown grappling holes in the past.

This is a good matchup as both guys have similar skillsets but I have concerns with Giles dropping to welterweight for the first time in his career and Morales is still getting better so I slightly prefer the young gun in this fight. Morales by knockout is the official pick. 

Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira

Gravely, -240; Oliveira, +195

Gravely is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Nate Maness last September that snapped a two-fight losing streak for him. Gravely is a frustrating fighter to me because he has a good wrestling base and solid skillset, but his fight IQ and durability are always a concern. In terms of DraftKings, he is always a strong play as he pushes a high pace and will look to land takedowns in volume. However, he constantly leaves his neck out there and gives up his back in scrambles and has paid the price multiple times for it. 

Oliveira is coming off a split-decision victory over Jose Alday on Dana White’s Contender Series in September and is currently on a five-fight win streak. Oliveira is primarily a kickboxer with some slick grappling and will mix in takedowns as well. 11 of his 18 career wins have come by submission and six of those were by first-round guillotine which is notable against a wrestler like Gravely. The concern with Oliveira is that he tends to gas out and we know Gravely can push a pace for a hard 15 minutes.

Oliveira is live for an early submission or even able to hurt Gravely with a head kick but outside of that he likely gets wrestled and dominated in the later rounds. Gravely by decision is the official pick but this is a great fight to target both sides on DraftKings. 

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez

Maddalena, -320; Rodriguez, +250

Maddalena is coming off an exciting performance on Dana White’s Contender Series in September when he beat Ange Loosa by unanimous decision. Maddalena is a powerful boxer with eight of his 10 career wins coming by knockout. He started his career with two straight losses but has since rattled off an impressive 10-fight win streak on his way to becoming the Welterweight champion over in Eternal MMA. Despite the sharp boxing, there are concerns with Maddalena in that he is very susceptible to leg kicks and is very hittable on the feet. 

Rodriguez is making his UFC debut on short notice. He turned pro just over a year ago and is 4-0 professionally with all four wins coming by first-round knockout. He has clear power in his hands but aside from his power there is not much we can take away from him considering he has yet to fight outside of the first two and a half minutes in the first round in any professional fight.

Maddalena is the better technical boxer and has legitimate power in his own right, but this is a high-variance matchup where either guy can win by knockout. For that reason, I’ll be overweight to both sides as I am not expecting Rodriguez to be rostered at all on DraftKings, and I am expecting the winner to win by knockout. Maddalena by knockout is the official pick. 

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Jourdain

Topuria, -510; Jourdain, +375

Topuria is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Ryan Hall in July at UFC 264. He is an undefeated prospect at 11-0 and has quickly gained a reputation of someone that you do not want to fight in the UFC. He has solid boxing and power in his hands, but it is his grappling where he truly shines. He has a power wrestling style and holds a black belt in BJJ with seven of his 11 career wins coming by submission. 

Jourdain is fresh off an impressive decision victory over Andre Ewell just last month. Jourdain is an impressive striker eight of his 12 career wins coming by knockout. However, a clear leak in his game is his inability to defend takedowns. That is the key in this matchup as he will need to keep the fight standing and take the fight to deeper waters to test Topuria’s cardio.

I do not expect him to be able to keep the fight standing, and even in that scenario Topuria may hurt him on the feet as well. Topuria by submission is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings. 

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Barcelos, -435; Henry, +330

Barcelos is coming off a majority decision loss to Timur Valiev last June. That loss snapped a nine-fight win streak for him and will be looking to rebound against the UFC newcomer in Victor Henry. Henry is making his UFC debut after winning by second-round submission in his last fight in October. He is 21-5 in his professional career with 14 wins coming inside the distance. He is more of a grappler, but he should have his hands full in that aspect as Barcelos should have the advantage on the mat. Henry is not a bad fighter, but he is making his debut at nearly 35 years old and facing a very difficult test in Barcelos, so I am not expecting much from him in this spot. Barcelos by decision is the official pick. 

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Wellington Turman

Vieira, -225; Turman, +185

Vieira is coming off a third-round submission victory over Dustin Stoltzfus last July. He is 8-1 professionally with seven of his eight wins coming by submission. He is a high-level black belt and one of the highest credentialed grapplers in the UFC. However, he has some serious holes in his game including striking defense and major cardio issues. 

Turman is coming off a split-decision victory over Sam Alvey in August that snapped a two-fight losing streak for him. Turman is well-rounded with a background in Muay Thai and a black belt in BJJ. However, his durability is a major concern as he has suffered brutal knockouts in his last two losses. Another issue I have with Turman in this matchup is that he is always looking to grapple and that is a recipe for disaster against Vieira, who is levels better while they are both fresh.

Turman needs to survive round one and wait for Vieira to gas out, but it is likely he gets hurt or submitted before then. Vieira by knockout is the official pick.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Cody Stamann

Nurmagomedov, -180; Stamann, +155

Nurmagomedov is coming off a 15-month layoff after knocking out Mark Striegl in the first round in October of 2020. He is 14-2 professionally with seven of his 14 wins coming by decision. He is a flashy striker with lightning-fast kicks but struggles when he Is pressured and not fighting out at space. He is able to be taken down but difficult to control and works back to his feet well. 

Stamann is coming off a decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili last May and is now on a two-fight losing skid. Despite the losing streak, Stamann is very well-rounded and has the pressure boxing that could work against Nurmagomedov if he can get inside his range. Stamann also averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and historically has good cardio and durability.

I am expecting this fight to go the full distance and while I favor Nurmagomedov while the fight plays out at range, I think Stamann could have some success with his jab and liable to mix in takedowns enough to make this a competitive fight. Nurmagomedov by decision is the official pick. 

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho

Pereira, -290; Fialho, +230

Pereira is coming off a decision victory over Niko Price at UFC 264 last July. He is one of the most entertaining fighters on the UFC roster for his showmanship and unique fighting style. He is currently on a three-fight win streak and 17 of his 26 professional victories have come inside the distance. He is very powerful for this division and also holds a black belt in BJJ. The clear red flags with Pereira are high fight IQ and cardio. 

Fialho is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Stefan Sekulic in October and is currently on a four-fight win streak. He will be making his UFC debut on short notice and is 14-3 professionally with 11 wins coming by knockout. He is primarily a striker and stands with a wide base and is constantly looking to land a big right hand. He is extremely hittable and seems to fade down the stretch if he cannot find the finish.

Pereira should win this fight at a high clip, but how much can you really trust him is something you need to ask yourself this week. This is another fight where I would like to get at least a little exposure to both sides. Pereira by decision is the official pick. 

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Moreno, -180; Figueiredo, +155

Moreno meets Figueiredo for the highly anticipated trilogy bout. They first went to a draw when they fought in December of 2020 at UFC 256 in a fight that many people thought Figueiredo won even with the point deduction. They ran it back at UFC 263 last June and Moreno dominated the fight for as long as it lasted until submitting Figueiredo in the third round and claiming the flyweight belt. It was honestly one of the best moments in the UFC last year watching Moreno cry as he was presented UFC gold.

That said, Figueiredo notably had a difficult weight cut and seemed out of sorts on that night for what it’s worth. He is historically very aggressive in moving forward and landing heavy power shots and had a very reserved approach that night as if he were going through the motions. Regardless, this should be a competitive fight as these are two well-rounded fighters at the highest level of the flyweight division. 

Moreno has incredible durability as he has never been finished in his professional career and ate an absurd amount of power shots from Figueiredo in the first fight without even being wobbled. However, as we come to learn in the fight game, durability does not last forever so I am not treating him as if he cannot be finished. His striking has been much better since his initial run in the UFC, and he has always been an excellent scrambler with a dangerous ground game. 

On the flip side, Figueiredo is historically one of the best finishers the flyweight division has ever seen. He hits harder than anyone in the division and has some dangerous chokes in his own right. The cardio concerns seem overblown to me throughout his career, and he proved back at UFC 256 that he is able to keep a crazy pace and win a five round decision if need be. However, the weight cuts have always been difficult for him and that was clear at UFC 263 so we will see if the move to Arizona and training with Henry Cejudo can keep his weight in check and make the cut smoother.

In these types of matchups where the margins are so thin, I almost always want to side with whoever is the plus-money side especially if the odds are inflated like they were in their first bout. This time though, it seems as if Moreno is the one being overvalued based on their last matchup which seems to me like more of an outlier from Figueiredo. Whoever is able to control the center will have a key advantage in this matchup and I believe that to be Figueiredo this time around similar to his approach in the first fight. If he is able to keep Moreno on the back foot and continuously land his power shots, then I think he can hurt Moreno and get him out of there. Moreno will need to stay competitive in the striking but also be aggressive in mixing in the takedowns as that was the majority of his success in the second fight. Figueiredo is tough to control and a good scrambler in his own right but that is Moreno’s best path to victory. I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings and this is an excellent fight to target due to the high paced nature of these fighters. Figueiredo by TKO is the official pick. 

Cyril Gane vs. Francis Ngannou

Gane, -155; Ngannou, +135

I am nearly as excited for this fight as I am for the co-main that we just discussed. However, I have much less things to say about this matchup as the fight seems very binary to me. You either believe that Ngannou has the power to put out Gane if he lands a big shot early or you do not. There is no denying that Gane is one of the most skilled heavyweights in the division. His high-level kickboxing approach has served him well thus far as he is excellent at managing distance and fighting at range while limiting the damage from his opponents. 

But he has yet to face the power of Ngannou aside from when they used to be former training partners, and this will be much different. Ngannou has inhuman punching power, and he encapsulates the phrase “All it takes is one” in the heavyweight division. What is more impressive is the improvements that we saw from him in the Stipe Miocic fight. The obvious concern with Ngannou is his cardio as he seems to fade quickly after the first round if he cannot find a finish. Another concern is that if he were to come in with a more reserved approach to preserve his cardio which I believe would be a bad idea as he will not win a kickboxing match at range against Gane. 

His best path to victory is to fight his fight, which is blitzing forward and winging huge power shots hoping to land something clean. Outside of that, he is going to lose to Gane’s high IQ and technical kickboxing approach and will likely get finished late. This is another fight to get exposure to both sides on DraftKings, but it is clear to me that Ngannou’s upside is much higher along with the price savings as well. Ngannou by knockout is the official pick.