Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 269 in Las Vegas. This is the last PPV of the year, and the UFC is not disappointing with an absolute stacked card to end the year the right way.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira Fight Preview
Robertson, -400; Cachoeira, +300, DraftKings Sportsbook
Robertson is coming off a decision loss to Miranda Maverick at UFC 260 in March. She is currently on a two-fight win streak, but this is a good bounce back opportunity for her against Cachoeira. Robertson is an aggressive grappler and is a threat to finish her opponents whenever the fight ends up on the mat. However, where she has struggled at times is getting the fight to the mat in top position where she is most dangerous. When she faces opponents more physical than her with decent takedown defense, she has no backup plan and tends to fade.
Cachoeira is coming off an impressive comeback knockout victory over Gina Mazany at UFC 262 in May. She packs a powerful punch but outside of that you do not have to worry about much with Cachoeira’s game. Despite her obvious power, she is extremely hittable on the feet and struggles to defend takedowns at just 63% and was taken down four times in that Mazany fight.
I expect Robertson to land takedowns with little resistance and her grappling should shine once the fight hits the mat. Robertson by submission is the official pick and she is a high upside play on DraftKings.
Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley Fight Preview
Costa, -190; Kelley, +160, DraftKings Sportsbook
Costa is coming off an electric fight of the night against Adrian Yanez in July where he lost by TKO in Round 2. As with most Costa fights, he was having major success in the first round but gassed out bad in round two prior to the finish. He is as dangerous as anyone in the division for three to five minutes but if he cannot finish the fight early then he is in trouble.
Kelley is coming off a decision victory over Ali AlQaisi last October. Kelley has an awkward striking style and plays little defense in striking exchanges, so an early finish by Costa is certainly live here. Kelley will need to withstand the early storm and drag Costa in to round two where he should have a clear cardio edge. Lastly, Kelley should have some grappling upside in this matchup as well if he can get the fight to the mat.
I will have exposure to both sides as I am expecting the winner to finish the fight inside the distance and put up a strong score on DraftKings relative to their price. Costa by knockout in round one is the official pick.
Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner Fight Preview
Hall, -220; Minner, +180, DraftKings Sportsbook
Hall is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria back at UFC 264 in July. He was never in the fight and got finished in the first meaningful exchange on the mat. Despite the letdown his last time in the octagon, Hall is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. He is a world-class grappler and capable of finishing any opponent if he can force a grappling exchange.
Minner is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Darren Elkins his last time out in July that snapped a two-fight win streak. This is a difficult matchup for Minner as he is typically known for being an aggressive grappler himself. His best path to victory here would be to try to keep the fight standing but even in that scenario Hall is liable to kick him to death at range.
At some point I expect Minner to engage Hall in the grappling which should be his demise as Hall is levels above on the mat. Hall by submission is the official pick.
Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell Fight Preview
Perez, -335; Schnell, +260, DraftKings Sportsbook
We last saw Perez at UFC 255 where he suffered a first-round loss to Deiveson Figueiredo for the 125-pound championship belt. He is a very well-rounded fighter and remains one of the elite guys in the flyweight division. He typically relies on his wrestling as he averages just under three takedowns per 15 minutes. The only real concern with Perez is his durability and his lack of awareness of sticking his neck out to be submitted.
Neither of those should be large concerns in this matchup against Schnell. Schnell is coming off a decision loss to Rogerio Bontorin at UFC 262 in May. He trains out of American Top Team and is a technical striker and capable submission grappler with eight of his 15 professional wins coming by submission. However, his durability is a real concern having been knocked out three times in his career. Additionally, he has always struggled to defend takedowns at just 50% in the UFC.
I expect Perez to land takedowns and control Schnell on the mat. Outside of him getting his neck caught again, he should take care of business on Saturday. Perez by decision is the official pick.
Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield Fight Preview
Maverick, -145; Blanchfield, +125, DraftKings Sportsbook
Maverick is coming off a controversial split-decision loss to Maycee Barber that snapped a five-fight win streak. She is a Muay Thai striker and also comes from a grappling background as well and holds a brown belt in BJJ.
Blanchfield is coming off an impressive UFC debut performance with a dominant win over Sarah Alpar in September. She is currently on a four-fight win streak and is 7-1 professionally with her only loss coming against Tracy Cortez on the regional scene. She typically fights at a high pace and has a solid wrestling base and holds a black belt in BJJ. Similar to Maverick, she is very hittable on the feet and throws too many naked leg kicks which leaves her open to be countered.
I expect this to be a very competitive fight where we may not know who is clearly winning each round. I lean Maverick slightly as the more physical fighter and better technical striker, but the margins are very thin. Maverick by split decision is the official pick, but I will likely have more exposure to Blanchfield as the underdog on DraftKings.
Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders Fight Preview
Muniz, -135; Anders, +115, DraftKings Sportsbook
Muniz is coming off a first-round submission victory over Jacare Souza at UFC 262 in May. He is 3-0 in the UFC and currently on a seven-fight win streak. He is a submission grappling specialist with 14 of his 21 professional victories coming by submission. His cardio and durability are concerns as he has been knocked out in all four of his professional losses. However, he may just need one grappling exchange to end the fight as 12 of those submission victories came inside round one.
Anders is coming off a decision victory over Darren Stewart at UFC 263 in June. Anders has always been a bit of a wild card to me — he is extremely athletic and has a solid skillset wherever the fight goes, but he is also a fighter that is too inactive inside the octagon and will let his opponents dictate the fight at times.
This is a solid fight to target on DraftKings as we can expect Muniz to win by early submission if he wins whereas Anders can likely win by knockout if he can survive the early grappling exchanges. I will have exposure to both sides, but I expect Anders to fight a similar gameplan that he did against Gerald Meerschaert and he should get the job done here. Anders by knockout is the official pick.
Bruno Silva vs. Jordan Wright Fight Preview
Silva, -365; Wright, +280, DraftKings Sportsbook
Silva last fought Andrew Sanchez in October and won by TKO in the third round. Many people thought Sanchez was up two rounds before getting finished, so it was nice to see Silva dig deep in the final round when cardio had been an issue for him in the past. He is a very explosive fighter with clear knockout potential, as 18 of his 21 professional wins have come by knockout, 12 inside the first round. Where he struggles is defending takedowns and he has been submitted in all of his losses outside of a disqualification in 2011.
Wright is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Jamie Pickett his last time out at UFC 262 in May. The Beverly Hills Ninja is also an explosive fighter with the majority of his wins coming inside the first round. The concern with Wright is that he is basically a one-round or bust fighter as his cardio and durability do not seem to hold up. He also is extremely hittable in striking exchanges, so there is a good chance Silva just drops him early.
That said, this is a high-variance matchup where I believe either fighter can win by knockout (Silva much higher chance) so I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings. Silva by knockout is the official pick.
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa Fight Preview
Sakai, -110; Tuivasa, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Sakai is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in June. His last two fights have both been main events, but he has lost both by knockout. He typically fights at a high pace for the heavyweight division and has good enough cardio to keep it up for three full rounds. He struggles against the elite of this division as he is way too hittable and can be controlled against competent wrestlers.
Tuivasa is coming off an electric knockout victory over Greg Hardy at UFC 264 in July. He is currently on a three-fight win streak with all three wins coming by knockout in round one. Tuivasa is a powerful striker, and all but one of his 12 professional wins have come by first-round knockout. After Round 1, his cardio and durability tend to fade. Additionally, he has repeatedly been controlled in the clinch and taken down although the takedowns likely won’t be a factor against Sakai. As much as I am a fan of Tuivasa and hoping we see another shoey, I have to favor Sakai in this matchup.
Outside of getting clipped in Round 1, he wins this fight at a high clip and is the better fighter over 15 minutes. I will have more exposure to the Tuivasa side on DraftKings though as his upside is much higher. Sakai by decision is the official pick.
Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz Fight Preview
Munhoz, -120; Cruz, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
Munhoz is coming off a decision loss to Jose Aldo at UFC 265 in August. He has now dropped three of his last four fights. Despite the losing streak, Munhoz is still a difficult matchup for many opponents because of his sharp leg kicks, nasty guillotine choke and unhuman durability. I expect him to go after the legs of Cruz early and often to try to slow down his movement and footwork.
Cruz is coming off a split-decision victory over Casey Kenney in March. The game plan of Cruz is clear as he is going to dance around the outside and use his movement and footwork to his advantage and avoid getting into a firefight with Munhoz. He can also try to mix in the takedowns, but he will need to be aware of the patented guillotine of Munoz.
This should be a fun fight, and I favor Munhoz, as I expect him to be landing the more impactful shots along with slowing down the movement of Cruz with his leg kicks. Munhoz by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on DraftKings this week.
Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige Fight Preview
Emmett, -165; Ige, +145, DraftKings Sportsbook
Emmett is coming off a sizable layoff — we last saw him in the octagon in June of last year when he won a decision over Shane Burgos in what was a very impressive performance. He essentially fought on one leg after tearing his ACL, which is partially what has kept him out for a year and a half. He has now had multiple surgeries coupled with the layoff which makes it a bit of a concern in this matchup.
Ige is coming off a main event loss to the Korean Zombie in June. Ige is a difficult matchup for anyone at the Featherweight division as he is extremely well-rounded with good boxing, solid wrestling and a black belt in BJJ.
Emmett is arguably the hardest power puncher in the division, but Ige is extremely tough and has never been finished in his career. Couple that with the fact that he should be the fresher fighter with better cardio and the more well-rounded game. Ige by decision is the official pick and he is a solid underdog to target this week.
Sean O’Malley vs. Raulian Paiva Fight Preview
O’Malley, -310; Paiva, +245, DraftKings Sportsbook
Sugar Sean O’Malley is coming off a third-round TKO finish over Kris Moutinho at UFC 264 in July. O’Malley looked excellent in the first round and nearly scored a highlight-reel finish, but the referee did not stop it. The tide seemed to change in the later rounds as O’Malley’s cardio concerns seemed to rear its ugly head and he slowed down drastically in the final round. Regardless, O’Malley remains one of the most technical and dangerous strikers in the division while he is fresh and capable of finishing any opponent.
Paiva is coming off a majority decision over Kyler Phillips in July. He comes in on a three-fight win streak after losing his first two UFC fights. Paiva is a striker by nature, but he is clearly outclassed in this matchup.
I expect O’Malley to be landing on him at will early in this fight and likely earns a knockout at some point. I find it hard to see Paiva outpointing O’Malley unless he is completely gassed, which likely does not happen until Round 3. O’Malley by knockout is the official pick.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Kai Kara-France Fight Preview
Garbrandt, -135; Kara-France, +115, DraftKings Sportsbook
Garbrandt is dropping down to the flyweight division to face Kara-France in this matchup. He previously lost to Rob Font in May and has lost four of his last five fights although they came against the elite tier of the division. Garbrandt is a technical striker with sharp boxing and solid wrestling when he goes to it. His biggest weakness is lack of defense particularly in the pocket as he is so focused on landing big power shots that he leaves his head wide open to be countered. He has now been knocked out in three of his last four losses although Kara-France isn’t necessarily a one-punch knockout fighter.
Kara-France is coming off an exciting first-round knockout victory over Rogerio Bontorin at UFC 259 in March. He is a high-volume striker with solid takedown defense and typically keeps the fight standing and outpoints his opponents at range. I expect him to employ a similar game plan against Garbrandt but I have concerns about how successful that will be in this matchup. This is a clear step up in competition and Kara-France eats a lot of clean shots in striking exchanges.
Both guys can win by knockout, but I expect a finish to come from the Garbrandt side if it materializes. If this fight goes the distance, this could be a situation where Kara-France is landing more volume but Garbrandt lands the heavier shots meaning we could see a controversial decision. This is a competitive fight and I do not have a strong lean, but I favor Garbrandt as long as everything goes smoothly at the weigh-in. Garbrandt by knockout is the official pick.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Geoff Neal Fight Preview
Ponzinibbio, -130; Neal, +110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Ponzinibbio is coming off a decision victory over Miguel Baeza in June. It was a nice rebound performance after getting knocked out by Li Jingliang in his return fight earlier this year. Ponzinibbio is a high-volume striker with legitimate knockout power as 15 of his 28 professional wins have come by knockout. That said, since the long layoff and health issues, he has looked a step slower, and we have yet to see if the one-punch power is still there.
Neal is coming off a decision loss to Neal Magny in May. After starting his UFC run at 5-0, Neal has now lost his last two fights. He is a heavy hitter with eight of his 13 wins coming by knockout. He should have a speed and power advantage over Ponzinibbio and I expect him to land clean shots early in this fight as Ponzinibbio plays little defense. There are concerns with Neal though as he previously had some serious health issues along with a recent legal issue. On top of that, his cardio has always been a bit of a red flag when he cannot get an early finish.
I have concerns on both sides, but I lean Neal as the better striker at this stage in his career with more capability of finishing and less likely to get finished of the two. Neal by knockout is the official pick.
Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña Fight Preview
Nunes, -900; Peña, +600, DraftKings Sportsbook
What is there to even say about Nunes at this point that I have not already said? She is clearly a level above anyone in this division and this matchup is no different as she is clearly a tier above Julianna Peña in nearly every facet of MMA. She is currently on a 12-fight win streak and coming off a first-round submission victory over Megan Anderson in March.
Peña is coming off a third-round submission victory over Sara McMann in January in a fight she was losing up to that point. Peña has most of her success by wrestling and she is not going to be able to outmuscle Nunes to the ground. Even if she did, she is liable to get submitted, as Nunes is the better submission grappler and will have an advantage on the mat.
Nunes has the best inside distance line on the entire slate, and it is no surprise that I expect her to get a finish in this matchup. Nunes by TKO is the official pick and she is the highest floor play of the week on DraftKings.
Dustin Poirier vs. Charles Oliveira Fight Preview
Poirier, -160; Oliveira, +140, DraftKings Sportsbook
Poirier is coming off the trilogy fight with Conor McGregor at UFC 264 where he won by TKO in the first round. Poirier is surging — he has now won eight of his last nine fights outside of the no contest against Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211. He is a technical striker who will throw in high-volume and keep that pace for as long as anyone. He is durable on the feet as well and can hang in the grappling department as he holds a black belt in BJJ.
Poirier’s opponent is the current lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira. He is coming off the title shot against Michael Chandler at UFC 262 in May. He is without question one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division with 19 of his 31 wins coming by submission. He is also coming in hot for his first title defense as he has won nine straight fights with all but one of those ending inside the distance.
He will need to force grappling exchanges with Poirier as he is going to be getting out landed on the feet and Poirier is able to withstand much more damage if it turns into a fire fight on the feet. I expect Poirier to try to keep the fight standing and land the bigger shots and hurt Oliveira on the feet before finding the finish. Poirier by knockout is the official pick.
