NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 268 in Las Vegas. This card is absolutely one of the best of the entire year, and I could not be more excited to get back in the content saddle this week.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Ode Osbourne vs. CJ Vergara
Osbourne, -180; Vergara, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Osbourne is coming off the first-round knockout loss to Manel Kape his last time out in August. He is 1-2 in the UFC with all three fights ending inside the first round. In fact, he has not seen the second round over his last eight fights since 2016. He is typically a finish or be finished style of fighter as he is all action from the opening bell.
Vergara is coming off a huge knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series in September and is making his UFC debut. Six of his nine career wins have come by knockout, and he carries power throughout the fight and seems to be semi-well rounded. However, my main issue with Vergara is that he is extremely hittable on the feet, and if he continues to eat punches clean like that at the UFC level then he likely will not last long in the promotion.
I expect this to be a high-paced fight and the winner should score well, but I am siding with Osbourne who is more explosive and more tested at this level and likely lands a big shot early in this one. Osbourne by knockout is the official pick.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza
Baghdasaryan, -275; Souza, +210, DraftKings Sportsbook
Baghdasaryan is another Dana White’s Contender Series product as he earned his contract with a knockout victory over Collin Anglin in July. He is 6-1 with five of his six career wins coming by knockout. He is one of the better strikers making their UFC debut in recent memory as he comes from a high-level kickboxing background. He is very technical and extremely dangerous with his kicking game. The main concern with Baghdasaryan is he does slow down in fights if he is pushed to the later rounds, which tends to be a theme with Glendale Fighting Club and his grappling is a bit of a question mark as well.
Souza is also making his UFC debut and is coming off a decision victory over Javier Garcia in August, which earned him the featherweight title over in LFA. Souza seems to be well-rounded and has decent cardio, but he is going to be at a massive disadvantage while the fight plays out on the feet, and he is not an aggressive wrestler that can wear on Baghdasaryan and drag him to deeper waters while testing his grappling.
I expect Baghdasaryan to be landing early and often and he is dangerous enough to find a finish in the first round. Baghdasaryan by knockout is the official pick.
Dustin Jacoby vs. John Allan
Camur, -365; Allan, +280, DraftKings Sportsbook
This was originally supposed to be Aleksa Camur, but he pulled out of the fight and Jacoby is stepping up on short notice to replace him. Jacoby is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Darren Stewart and has yet to taste defeat over his last six bouts. He is a technical kickboxer with good cardio, which makes for a difficult matchup unless you can take him down repeatedly and control him, which is much harder than it looks (just ask Ion Cutelaba).
Allan is coming off a split-decision loss to Roman Dolidze in December of last year. He had previously beat Mike Rodriguez in his UFC debut but failed a drug test and the fight was overturned afterward. Allan is primarily a striker with nine of his 13 career wins coming by knockout. However, he does try to mix in the takedowns, which could be a path to victory for him here. But I would be surprised if he can even land takedowns against Jacoby let alone control him on the mat.
I expect Jacoby to keep the fight standing and out volume Allan easily. Jacoby by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target this week with a full slate on DraftKings.
Chris Barnett vs. Gian Villante
Barnett, -110; Villante, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Barnett is coming off a submission loss to Ben Rothwell in his UFC debut in May that snapped a six-fight win streak for him. To be honest, I do not believe Barnett belongs in the UFC as he is clearly undersized for the heavyweight division and has an extremely padded record to this point. Despite not looking very athletic, his movement is surprising decent especially early in fights before he gasses. However, he has made a career of finishing very low-level opponents and I have serious concerns with him against anyone in the UFC.
Villante is coming off a decision loss to Jake Collier in December and is now on a three-fight losing streak. Despite the three-fight losing streak, Villante should be the better technical striker and more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Barnett has power and could be dangerous early but outside of landing something heavy and hurting Villante in round one, I do not see much of a path to victory for him.
Villante by knockout is the official pick but keep in mind this could turn into a sloppy decision where both guys are gassed out and do not do enough to score well on DraftKings.
Ian Garry vs. Jordan Williams
Garry, -365; Williams, +280, DraftKings Sportsbook
Garry is making his UFC debut after capturing the welterweight title in Cage Warriors back in June. He is an undefeated prospect with a 7-0 record and seems to have all the tools to compete in the UFC. Four of his seven wins have come by knockout but that is not his only path to victory as he is a solid round winner as well and is coming off a five-round decision victory so we know the cardio should be there.
Williams is coming off a first-round submission loss to Mickey Gall his last time out in July. He is 0-2 in the UFC after knocking out Gregory Rodriguez on Dana White’s Contender Series in September of last year. Williams is a one-dimensional striker with suspect cardio and subpar grappling skills. He does carry power though as seven of his nine career wins have come by knockout, and he will need to land something heavy to have a shot against Garry. However, Garry is the more technical striker and has shown to be durable as well and should have Williams covered in nearly all areas.
This is a lot of market respect for a UFC newcomer, but this is a showcase fight for him, and he should get the job done. Garry by decision is the official pick.
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Imavov, -125; Shahbazyan, +105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Imavov is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Ian Heinisch in July. He is 2-1 in the UFC with his only loss being a majority decision against Phil Hawes in February. He is a very well-rounded prospect as he is a technical striker with legitimate knockout power but also has some grappling chops if he decides to take things to the ground. He would likely have an advantage there against Shahbazyan, but Imavov is not overly aggressive in looking for takedowns so I would expect this to play out primarily on the feet.
Shahbazyan is coming off a decision loss to Jack Hermansson and is now on a two-fight losing streak after starting his professional career 11-0. At this point, the read is out there on Shahbazyan in that he is very explosive and dangerous in the first round. However, outside of the first round his cardio typically falls off a cliff and he has always been susceptible to takedowns and being controlled by competent wrestlers. His cardio looked a little improved against Hermansson but it is still an area of concern and I expect Imavov to have the advantage there.
Shahbazyan is always live for an early finish, but Imavov has historically proven to be durable and should take over as the fight goes on. Imavov by decision is the official pick but he is capable of finishing later in the fight if Shahbazyan gasses out again.
Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis
Hawes, -320; Curtis, +250, DraftKings Sportsbook
Hawes is coming off a decision victory over Kyle Daukaus in May his last time out. He is 3-0 in the UFC and currently on a seven-fight win streak. Hawes comes from a collegiate wrestling background and is very dangerous early in the fight. Seven of his 11 career wins have come by knockout and five of those were inside the first round. He is a tough matchup for most fighters because he is so dangerous with his power, but he can also go to the wrestling if he needs to and control his opponents on the mat. The issue with Hawes has always been his cardio as he used to be known for gassing out badly after one round if he was unable to find an early finish. He disproved that theory his last time out against Daukaus as the cardio seemed much better and was able to go a hard 15 minutes and win a decision. I am not ready to say his cardio issue is completely fixed now but it was encouraging either way.
Curtis is making his UFC debut and is currently on a five-fight win streak himself. He was previously scheduled to step in on short notice and fight Hawes after Deron Winn pulled out, but Hawes declined the bout at the last minute. Curtis seems to have a decent skillset as he clearly has knockout power with 14 of his 26 career wins coming by knockout. But he is also well-rounded and has some wrestling skills as well although he will be at a clear disadvantage in that department against Hawes.
Curtis is someone to keep an eye on moving forward but this is a tough spot for your UFC debut, and I have to favor the wrestling and power of Hawes even with the cardio still being a concern. Hawes by knockout is the official pick and this is another good fight to target on DraftKings.
Bobby Green vs. Al Iaquinta
Green, -170; Iaquinta, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
Green is coming off a decision loss to Rafael Fiziev his last time out in August and is now on a two-fight losing streak. Green is a technical boxer who is rarely getting out landed while the fight plays out on the feet. He is a high-volume striker with good head movement and can mix in the takedowns at times as well.
Iaquinta is coming off a two-year layoff after losing a decision to Dan Hooker in October of 2019. He has now lost three of his last four fights and his run in the UFC has aged poorly of late.
While Iaquinta always has enough dog in him to make things competitive, he is going to be at a clear striking disadvantage and Green should be able to mix in takedowns if he wants as well. For those reasons along with the extended layoff concern, Green by decision is the official pick.
Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis
Pereira, -275; Michailidis, +220, DraftKings Sportsbook
Pereira is coming off a first-round knockout victory in LFA last November and is making his UFC debut. He is just 3-1 in his professional MMA career but comes from a high-level striking background and is a former Glory kickboxing world champion. I have concerns with Pereira getting this much market respect in his UFC debut especially since we know his grappling his suspect to say the least. However, he is going to have a significant striking advantage while the fight plays out on the feet and I do not think that Michailidis is the right guy to fade him with.
Michailidis is coming off a decision victory over KB Bhullar in May and is 1-1 in the UFC. He is capable striker and will likely come in with a kick heavy approach and also holds a brown belt in BJJ. But his durability is a concern as he has been knocked out four times in his career and he is facing a high-level striker with legitimate knockout power.
Pereira is likely a fade candidate moving forward in the right matchup, but he should find the knockout win here. Pereira by knockout is the official pick and he is a solid target on DraftKings this week.
Marlon Vera vs. Frankie Edgar
Vera, -170; Edgar, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
Vera is coming off a decision win over Davey Grant in June. Vera is a well-rounded fighter who is capable of finishing his opponents wherever the fight goes. He is typically a slow starter but has good cardio and will take over if his opponents start slowing down. He has some heavy leg kicks and does some of his best work in the clinch. He is also a black belt in BJJ although he rarely looks to take his opponents down. His opponent in this matchup is Edgar.
Edgar is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Cory Sandhagen in what was arguably the knockout of the year.
Edgar is a legend of the fight game, but at 40 years old, he seems to be nearing the end of the road for him. He will always have his wrestling skills, but his durability is a major concern as he has been knocked out in three of his last four losses and all of which were in the first-round. However, this is a winnable matchup for him as Vera is a slow starter and Edgar’s striking is underrated of late.
If Edgar can keep the striking competitive and earn some top time after landing takedowns, then an upset decision is well within the cards. If he is total dust, then Vera finishing him in round two or three is very live. Edgar by decision is the official pick but I will have exposure to both sides in this matchup.
Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo
Burgos, -195; Quarantillo, +165, DraftKings Sportsbook
Burgos is coming off a scary knockout loss to Edson Barboza in May. It was a delayed knockout and was very concerning to watch. Burgos is a high-paced action style fighter and has always had a “get hit once to return twice” attitude. However, that fighting style has led to him being dropped multiple times in fights and has now been knocked out twice which has me concerned for his durability. While the fight plays out on the feet, I expect Burgos to be the more active striker moving forward and landing powerful punches, but he will need to mind his P’s and Q’s against an opponent as dangerous as Quarantillo.
Quarantillo is coming off a third-round knockout over Gabriel Benitez in July, which was arguably his most impressive performance yet. Quarantillo can match Burgos’ pace on the feet although he should be at a striking disadvantage, but he will have a ground game advantage if he can mix in the takedowns here. Burgos is a very fun fighter and will likely be a popular target on DraftKings but laying chalk on someone who is careless defensively and has shown some serious durability issues against a dangerous opponent has me worried.
I will have exposure to both sides in this one but will be heavier on the underdog in Quarantillo. Quarantillo by decision is the official pick but both guys are capable of finishing as well.
Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler
Gaethje, -210; Chandler, +175, DraftKings Sportsbook
Gaethje is coming off a second-round submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov last October that snapped a four-fight win streak. Gaethje is easily one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC.
He is a dangerous power puncher on the feet and is willing to fight until the death if need be. He is a difficult matchup for any opponent because of his dangerous style of striking as he also has some of the nastiest leg kicks in the fight game.
Chandler is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Charles Oliveira back at UFC 262 in May where he was close to capturing UFC gold in the first round. Chandler is also a dangerous fighter early on where he has his most power. His wrestling should be negated here as Gaethje comes from a wrestling background as well and I expect these guys to bang it out on the feet for as long as it last.
It would not surprise me if either guy won by knockout, but I favor Gaethje here as the more diverse striker and more durable fighter as well. Gaethje by knockout is the official pick and this is an excellent fight to target on DraftKings as the winner is all but guaranteed to score well.
Zhang Weili vs. Rose Namajunas
Weili, -120; Namajunas, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
Back at UFC 261 in April, we witnessed one of the better moments of the year as Namajunas recaptured the strawweight title as she knocked out Weili in the first round. Namajunas is one of the most technical fighters in WMMA history. She is dangerous wherever the fight goes and capable of finishing any opponent when she is at her best. The only concern with Namajunas has always been her mentality as she has notoriously struggled mentally at times with being a fighter and a UFC champion. But she seems to be over that, and she is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC when she is focused and firing on all cylinders.
Weili will look to get revenge after getting knocked out in their last fight which snapped a 21-fight win streak. Weili is a powerful striker and very well-rounded in her own right. What she lacks in technicality, she makes up for with aggression and brute strength. She will need to move forward and put a pace on Namajunas because if she stays stuck at range then she will likely be in trouble.
This is a difficult fight to have a strong read, but after picking Weili in their last fight, I am siding with Namajunas as the more technical striker and more well-rounded fighter. Namajunas by decision is the official pick.
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Usman, -320; Covington, +250, DraftKings Sportsbook
Usman is coming off a title defense victory over Jorge Masvidal his last time out at UFC 261 when he knocked him out in the second round. Usman is pound for pound the best fighter in the UFC in my opinion, and I honestly do not know what it will take to beat him at this point (hint: Chimaev?). The reason Usman is so difficult to beat is because he has clearly leveled up his striking since moving to Sanford MMA. His wrestling will always be there if he needs it, but it has been his jab and technical boxing that has been his moneymaker in his recent fights.
Covington is coming off a fifth-round TKO victory over Tyron Woodley last September. Covington comes from a wrestling background as well but also has great cardio and will bring a high-paced boxing approach when needed. The last time these guys fought it was one of the best fights of 2019 and most people had it 2-2 going into the fifth round before Usman finished Covington in the final round. Covington has talked about using his wrestling more in the rematch, but I would be surprised if he had much success in doing so as nobody has been able to take Usman down a single time in the UFC and neither guy attempted a takedown in the first match.
The biggest factor in this fight is the evolution of striking improvements coming from Usman and that will be the difference on Saturday night. Usman by knockout is the official pick and this is another excellent fight to target on DraftKings as the winner should score very well.
