Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
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We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 266 in Las Vegas. We have a 14-fight card slate this week so you can expect ownership to be naturally more spread out, which always makes for a fun fight night.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night on Saturday.
Omar Morales vs. Jonathan Pearce
Morales, -155; Pearce, +135, DraftKings Sportsbook
Morales is coming off a decision victory over Shane Young in March. He is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming against Giga Chikadze, which has aged nicely. Morales is a good kickboxer with heavy leg kicks and powerful hooks. He also holds a black belt in BJJ although he rarely looks to grapple so we never really see it on display. When he struggles is when his opponent is able to force him backward and make him fight off his back foot as he does not deal well with pressure, and it really effects his timing with his strikes. That should be a factor in this matchup against Pearce.
Pearce is coming off an impressive second-round knockout victory over Kai Kamaka last November. He is a high-action fighter who is going to put a pace on Morales from the opening bell. He averages just under nine significant strikes per minute and will mix in multiple takedowns as well, which is great for DraftKings scoring.
Despite having defensive concerns, I expect his aggressiveness and pressure to make up for the technical striking disparity between the two along with his wrestling advantage that will make a difference. Pearce by decision is the official pick.
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Martin Sano
Semelsberger, -450; Sano, +340, DraftKings Sportsbook
Semelsberger is coming off a decision loss to Khaos Williams in June. He is 2-1 in the UFC, and that loss snapped a five-fight win streak for him. He is an aggressive striker with legitimate power as five of his eight career wins have come by knockout. He also has some decent wrestling and will look to mix in the takedowns despite not going to it against Williams in his last fight.
Sano is coming off a four-year layoff as he last fought to a draw in Bellator in 2017. Prior to that draw, which he arguably lost, he was on a two-fight losing streak. There is no reason why he is in the UFC outside of being a close friend of Nick Diaz, who is making his return this weekend as well.
Semelsberger is going to commit murder Saturday night. Semelsberger by knockout is the official pick and is one of the safest plays on the entire slate this week.
Nicholas Maximov vs. Cody Brundage
Maximov, -210; Brundage, +168, DraftKings Sportsbook
Maximov was supposed to be fighting Karl Roberson, but Roberson pulled out last minute due to health reasons and will be replaced by Brundage, making his UFC debut on five days’ notice. Maximov comes from a collegiate wrestling background and trains with the Diaz brothers in California. Three of his six wins have come by submission, and he holds a brown belt in BJJ. I liked the matchup against Roberson much more for Maximov as it was clear he would have an advantage on the mat.
However, Brundage comes from a Division II wrestling background and will be much more difficult to take down. Maximov is likely the better submission grappler of the two but with both guys having good wrestling, this may turn into a striking match. With Maximov a sizable favorite and priced in the mid-range, he is going to be very popular on this slate now, which makes me have extra interest in Brundage as an underdog for the leverage that he provides against the field. I would like targeting him more if not for the five days’ notice, but he has a decent skillset and I expect this fight to be competitive.
I would suggest getting some exposure to the obvious on paper play in Maximov but also being overweight to this fight in general and on the Brundage side. Maximov by decision is the official pick.
Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Fiorot, -260; Bueno Silva, +210, DraftKings Sportsbook
Fiorot is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Tabatha Ricci in June. She is a high-volume striker with serious power for this division and six of her seven career victories have come by knockout. Her grappling is still untested at this level, but her aggressiveness and power has allowed her to mow through her first two UFC opponents.
Bueno Silva is coming off a draw against Montana De La Rosa in February. She is similar to Fiorot in the sense that she is a heavy hitter for this division and relies on her power as she does not throw a ton of volume. But she is a good submission grappler as five of her seven career wins have come by submission, and she holds a black belt in BJJ. Unlike Fiorot’s cardio being untested in the third round, we know Bueno Silva’s cardio cannot hold up for 15 minutes if the fight gets extended.
I favor Fiorot’s striking advantage, power and cardio to get the job done here. Fiorot by knockout is the official pick.
Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner
Medic, -120; Turner, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
Medic is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Aalon Cruz in his UFC debut in March. He is an undefeated prospect at 7-0 with six first-round finishes. His cardio is untested, but he is a good kickboxer with dangerous power as five of his wins have come by knockout.
Turner is coming off a second-round submission victory over Brok Weaver last September. He is also a powerful striker and very long for this division and will have a six-inch reach advantage over Medic in this matchup. Eight of his 10 career victories have come by knockout, and he holds a purple belt in BJJ. He should have a grappling advantage over Medic in this matchup, but I doubt this fight hits the mat at all. On the feet, I trust both guys to be very active, but I favor the leg kicks of Medic and do not trust the durability of Turner as he has been knocked out three times in his career, two of which came inside the first round.
I am expecting a finish in this fight and would suggest getting exposure to both sides with a lean towards Medic. Medic by knockout is the official pick.
Taila Santos vs. Roxanne Modafferi
Santos, -380; Modafferi, +290, DraftKings Sportsbook
Santos is coming off a dominant performance victory over Gillian Robertson that she won by decision. She banked just under 13 minutes of control time in that fight and her wrestling and grappling has shown improvements each time out since her UFC debut loss against Mara Romero Borella in 2019. She is going to have a physicality and strength advantage along with her power while the fight plays out on the feet.
Modafferi is coming off a decision loss to Viviane Araujo in January. Modafferi typically relies on her wrestling to edge rounds but Santos has good takedown defense and is going to be much stronger than her in the clinch so I would be surprised if she lands any takedowns in this matchup.
I expect Santos to be the one landing takedowns at will and controlling where the fight goes with little resistance from Modafferi on the feet or the mat. Santos by decision is the official pick.
Chris Daukaus vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Daukaus, -200; Abdurakhimov, +170, DraftKings Sportsbook
Daukaus is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Alexey Oleinik in February. He is 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins coming by first-round knockout. He is 11-3 professionally with 10 of his 11 wins coming by knockout and eight of those came inside the first round. I am not sure if you are following yet, but Daukaus likes to win by knockout in the first round. He is extremely powerful and has fast hands for this division. He also holds a black belt in BJJ but we typically do not get to see it because he is doing his damage on the feet.
Abdurakhimov is coming off a two-year layoff after getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes in September of 2019. He is a low-volume power puncher with nine of his 20 career wins coming by knockout. He also has some decent grappling chops as most Dagestan fighters do, but I am not convinced he will be able to take down and control Daukaus in this matchup.
This matchup would have been more interesting to me if it happened earlier in Abdurakhimov’s career. At 40 years old and with three knockout losses on his record and coming off a sizable layoff, it is tough to put any stock in him this week. Daukaus by knockout in Round 1, and he is a strong target on DraftKings this week.
Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Hooker, -145; Haqparast, +125, DraftKings Sportsbook
Hooker is coming off the first-round knockout loss to Michael Chandler back at UFC 257 in January. He is now on a two-fight losing streak and contemplated retirement after his last loss as well. What is more concerning to me is the level of damage that he has taken over his last three fights. He has historically been very durable throughout his career, but he went life or death with Paul Felder and Dustin Poirier last year in a span of four months before getting dropped instantly by Chandler. I am not going to completely write him off yet but there are some serious red flags with Hooker currently.
Haqparast is a high-volume boxer with a good combination of speed and power to go along with his technical ability. Nine of his 13 career wins have come by knockout, and he is currently on a two-fight win streak after getting knocked out by Drew Dober at UFC 246. Both guys are going to look to control the center and land volume with Hooker’s approach being more kicking and clinch heavy whereas Haqparast is almost strictly a boxer. Despite the more diversity in the striking from Hooker, it is his defense that concerns me the most as he rarely moves his head off the center line and takes way too many power shots during pocket exchanges.
I favor Haqparast to land the more damaging shots and I trust his durability and defense more despite being at a slight cardio disadvantage if the fight goes to the third round. Haqparast by knockout is the official pick, and he is a strong underdog target this week on DraftKings.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Marlon Moraes
Dvalishvili, -260; Moraes, +210, DraftKings Sportsbook
Dvalishvili is coming off a decision victory over Cody Stamann back in May. He is currently on a six-fight win streak in the UFC after dropping his first two fights with the promotion against Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon a few years ago. The path to victory for Dvalishivili has never been more obvious. He is looking to move forward constantly and take his opponents down repeatedly which is great for DraftKings scoring. His striking is still not great, and he gets hit to too much while at range, but he is very good at closing the distance and rag dolling his opponents to the mat.
Moraes is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Rob Font last December and has now lost three of his last four fights all by knockout. Moraes is a good technical kickboxer with knockout power early, but his cardio is notoriously a major problem for him and if he is unable to land something big on his opponents early then he typically withers away and gets finished. He has been finished in seven of his eight career losses and five of them were by knockout, so his durability is a concern as well along with the cardio.
I will not be overlooking his ability to win by knockout early in this matchup, so I will be getting some exposure to Moraes as a low-owned underdog with high upside, but make no mistake about it, Dvalishvili is once again one of the strongest plays on DraftKings this week. Dvalishvili by decision is the official pick.
Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Andrade, -265; Calvillo, +215, DraftKings Sportsbook
Andrade is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Valentina Shevchenko, who largely dominated that fight for as long as it lasted. Andrade has now lost three of her last four fights, but those were against the top contenders across the women’s strawweight and flyweight division. This is a good matchup for her to get back in the win column as she is extremely powerful and will not have to deal with a massive size difference like her last two fights. The way to beat Andrade is by being a better technical striker (duh), being able to withstand her early power and nullify her wrestling.
That combination of skills typically only comes at the top of the division, and I am not sure Calvillo belongs in that conversation. Calvillo is coming off a decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian last November. She is 9-2 professionally with six of her last seven fights going the full distance. She is primarily a wrestler with decent boxing skills and averages just under two takedowns per 15 minutes. However, when she is unable to have that wrestling advantage and take her opponents down, she struggles against competent or powerful strikers and Andrade is both. I doubt she will be able to get Andrade down and think Andrade may land takedowns if she chooses to do so.
On the feet, it will be Andrade moving forward and landing the more impactful shots, and I do not think Calvillo has enough power to earn her respect or make her pay. Andrade by decision is the official pick but a knockout finish would not surprise me either as her power is for real.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Blaydes, -335; Rozenstruik, +260, DraftKings Sportsbook
Blaydes is coming off a disappointing second-round knockout loss to Derrick Lewis that snapped a four-fight win streak. Like Dvalishvili, the game plan is obvious for Blaydes in that he is a high-volume wrester with good technique and cardio. He averages 6.64 takedowns per 15 minutes which is the most in the heavyweight division and is very difficult to peel off you once he has you down. The only real concern with Blaydes is that he sometimes does not set up his takedown entries and paid the price for it against Lewis.
Rozenstruik certainly has the power to put him out if he were to connect clean as 11 of his 12 career wins have come by knockout including his most recent performance against Augusto Sakai in June. He is primarily a counter striker who is looking to load up on his powerful hooks but tends to be too patient at times especially when pressured against the fence. He has historically shown good takedown defense as he averages 80% in the UFC but has yet to face anyone with the wrestling pedigree of Blaydes. I expect Blaydes to close the distance and rinse and repeat takedowns in this fight. It is always possible Rozenstruik can catch him early but the defensively grappling is going to tax his body and cardio, so it likely has to come early within the first two rounds.
Blaydes by TKO is the official pick and despite the danger of Rozenstruik’s power, Blaydes is one of the best plays on the slate on DraftKings which makes Rozenstruik only in play for large-field GPPs solely for leverage.
Robbie Lawler vs. Nick Diaz
Lawler, -120; Diaz, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
This is history in the making — whether that is a positive or negative thing is yet to be determined. These guys have a combined 78 professional fights and first fought back at UFC 47 in 2004, which resulted in a second-round knockout by Nick Diaz. Diaz’ most recent stint in the UFC resulted in him putting a beating on BJ Penn before hitting a three-fight losing streak including his most recent fight in 2015 versus Anderson Silva, which was overturned after both fighters failed a drug test (Silva for PEDs, Diaz for marijuana). Silva received just a one-year ban from USADA while Diaz got five years, which left many in the MMA community scratching their heads.
Lawler has been much more active than Diaz recently but has yet to get back in the win column since 2017 against Donald Cerrone. He is currently on a four-fight losing streak, although most of those losses came against guys that dominated him with their wrestling. This fight is primarily going to play out on the feet where Lawler likely has a power advantage but Diaz the more technical boxer. Diaz would also have the ground game advantage if the fight were to hit the mat as he holds a black belt in BJJ. There are so many question marks on both sides of the table here especially with the massive layoff from Diaz. This fight was originally supposed to be at 170 pounds, but both guys agreed to make it 185, which should help Diaz more with the layoff and lack of activity.
It is very tough to have any type of strong read on this fight as part of me wants to favor Diaz but not knowing what version we will see is a major concern. The best route here is to get exposure to both sides in multiple lineups or fade the fight entirely and hope we see a low-scoring, striking-based decision. Diaz by decision is the official pick.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy
Shevchenko, -1500; Murphy, +850, DraftKings Sportsbook
Shevchenko is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Jessica Andrade back in April. She is currently on a seven-fight win streak and still the best women’s flyweight fighter on the planet. What more needs to be said about Shevchenko that has not been said already? She is going to have a striking advantage against everyone that she faces and will have a wrestling advantage in most matchups as well. This fight against Murphy is no different, and you see that reflected in the betting odds and DraftKings pricing. Murphy is coming off a split-decision victory against Joanne Calderwood in June which I’m not even convinced that she won. Credit to her for getting the title shot but I do not see her having any advantage in this matchup. It just comes down to if you think Shevchenko can finish the fight early enough to pay off her DraftKings price. She is a safe option but with so many other better options that are cheaper, she is a secondary play for me. Shevchenko by TKO is the official pick.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega
Volkanovski, -170; Ortego, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
The two coaches of this season’s Ultimate Fighter series will square off in the main event for UFC 266. Volkanovski is coming off a split-decision win over Max Holloway back at UFC 251. He is currently on a 19-fight win streak and undefeated through nine UFC bouts. He is a high-volume kickboxer that has the cardio to keep an insane pace for 25 minutes if needed. He has the ability to mix in takedowns as well as he averages over two per 15 minutes, but I highly doubt he goes for any in this matchup.
Ortega is coming off a dominant performance over Chan Sung Jung last October. He is 15-1 professionally with his sole blemish being a knockout loss to Max Holloway for the belt back at UFC 231. His striking looked impressive in his last fight, but I would still give the advantage to Volkanovski on the feet as he has a more diverse attack and should be landing the more damaging strikes as well. Ortega likely needs to force grappling exchanges to win here and Volkanovski has shown solid takedown defense throughout his career. I expect the fight to play out standing with Volkanovski throwing much more volume and landing on Ortega more frequently as well. I do not think it is a blowout, but Volkanovski should do enough to convincingly win rounds.
Volkanovski by decision is the official pick but if there is a finish in this fight then I think it is more likely to come from the Ortega side. The good thing about Volkanovski is even in a decision with the potential for five rounds, he should cover his price tag with his insane pace making him a safe play on DraftKings.
