UFC 265 DFS picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 265: Gane vs. Lewis. The UFC is back in Houston for the second time this year for a solid PPV card that is headlined by an interim title bout at heavyweight between Ciryl Gane and Houston native Derrick Lewis. This card is currently scheduled to have 13 fights, though as we know from last week (where all three targets in this article had their fights canceled on Friday), anything can happen.

However, hopefully this slate stays intact as there are some nice offerings in the DraftKings lobby and the main card features some really fun matchups such as Vicente Luque vs. Michael Chiesa and Pedro Munhoz vs. Jose Aldo. 

With 13 fights on tap for this weekend, ownership tends to be more spread out across the 26-person player pool, just due to the high number of opinions we have. A recurring theme throughout this slate is that DK published their prices early in the week, so there are a bunch of plays that are underpriced relative to their current betting market prices, and their opponents are underpriced. If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups. 

High tier: Johnny Munoz ($9,100)

As usual, this article will begin with who I consider to be the best grappler at the upper price range of the DraftKings pricing. We have five fighters priced in the $9K-and-above range on DraftKings this weekend, and while a few of them possess upside via early finishing bonuses, I think Munoz has the most upside when we consider both finishing ability and grappling ability to accrue points prior to a potential finish. Munoz fell short in his short notice UFC debut last summer, but he attempted 16 takedowns in that matchup, and we know from his pre-UFC days and BJJ accolades that he is very capable of scoring submissions should the fight hit the ground. The matchup also helps here I think, as Jamey Simmons does not appear to be a UFC-level fighter and doesn’t have any real advantages in this matchup. 

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Mid-tier: Michael Chiesa ($7,700)

I guess I’m cheating here by avoiding the $8K price range this week, but honestly I really like some of these $7K underdogs, and they just provide more salary relief to be able to jam Munoz and say, I don’t know, a -400 favorite in the main event who costs $9,400 and hails from France. Anyway, as I mentioned in the intro above, a common theme throughout the pricing this week has been even-money underdogs in Vegas being priced as if they’re larger underdogs than they are in reality. Chiesa is currently a pick ‘em this weekend against Vicente Luque and is at a major disadvantage in striking, which means he will be forced to grapple. That’s nothing new for Chiesa, who averages over 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has scored 103, 110, 91 and 101 DK points during his current four fight win streak. Chiesa isn’t a lock to win this fight by any stretch, but I do favor him stylistically and any form of victory here will come with a very solid DK score for a sub-8K price. 

Low tier: Victoria Leonardo ($7400)

Are you noticing a theme yet? Once again, we turn to a fighter who is primarily a grappler in Leonardo, who is priced around a pick ‘em per the betting market but is priced around fighters on DK who are closer to 2/1 underdogs. Leonardo dropped her UFC debut due to a massive striking hole, but we’ve seen her employ wrestling-heavy gameplans on Contender Series and all her career losses have come to UFC-level fighters. Her opponent, Melissa Gatto, has not fought in three years and has very poor takedown defense on her regional tape. Similar to Chiesa, I wouldn’t say Leonardo is massive favorite to win this fight, but it’s likely a coinflip and she’s extremely cheap given the fact that she will likely try and get this fight to the ground and rack up takedown and control points.