UFC 264 – McGregor vs Poirier Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview

Let’s take a look at the opening odds, early betting pick, and breakdown of the UFC 264 main event. UFC 264 takes place July 10 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a live crowd for the first time in Sin City since the beginning of the pandemic. The main event is the trilogy fight between former Interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier and the biggest star in MMA, the former double champion Conor McGregor.

UFC 264 Betting Odds

Here are the latest odds for Poirier vs. Mcgregor, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Poirier enters this bout as a -115 favorite, meaning you have to lay $115 to win $100 with a bet on “The Diamond.” McGregor is the slightest of underdogs with a betting line of -106, meaning a $106 bet would profit $100 should the “Notorious” one get back in the win column. 

Poirier vs. McGregor fight breakdown

As with any trilogy matchup, these two men have shared a storied history inside the UFC octagon. Their first matchup came all the way back in 2014 at UFC 178, where McGregor was entrenched as a -260 favorite and won in 106 seconds via knockout. The rematch came this January, when Poirier pulled off the upset as a +260 underdog with a second-round knockout via punches after having tons of success with calf kicks leading up to the finishing sequence. McGregor had moments of success in the rematch and won the first round 10-9 on all three judge’s scorecards, but things were visibly unravelling throughout the entirety of the second round leading to the Poirier finish. Stylistically, McGregor is one of the most diverse strikers we’ve seen in the UFC and a large part of his demise in the rematch was due to his stance switch to a more boxing-centric style that nullified his own kicking offense while leaving himself vulnerable to kicks of Poirier. On the other side, Poirier largely prefers to box in his matchups and is well-known for using a more traditional boxing-style shell guard to defend head strikes. However, Poirier is the more likely of these two men to pursue wrestling and grappling scenarios, as evidenced by his takedown in round one earlier this year.

FTN MMA Betting Picks — UFC 264

This is such a fascinating matchup because so much hinges on which McGregor shows up to the cage. I think there is very little doubt that a prime McGregor was a better fighter than prime Poirier, but there are questions to ask surrounding where McGregor is at this point in his career. Although McGregor’s return to the octagon following his humbling lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov was a victory in style over Donald Cerrone, the fight lasted just 40 seconds and Cerrone is now winless over his last six fights. McGregor’s last win at 155 pounds came nearly five years ago in November of 2016 vs. Eddie Alvarez. For that reasoning, my pick here has to be Dustin Poirier, he’s just shown a more well-rounded and complete MMA game of late. McGregor had chances to win in Round 1 of the rematch and landed some significant strikes, and I expect him to have early success again in this fight. McGregor is extremely live for an early knockout, but as the fight goes on, I expect Poirier to have a better gas tank and be able to rack up attritional damage over the course of each round. With the current odds showing a slight lean to Poirier, I currently have no bet on the fight. While I make Poirier a slightly larger favorite than the market does, we have to respect the variance that McGregor brings to each fight and his ability to end things with one shot early in the fight. The most likely way I’ll get involved with betting a side in this matchup is taking Poirier as a live bet after the first round, where I expect Conor to see some success. Another look I’ve considered betting is the under 2.5 rounds, as that captures a large portion of McGregor’s win equity and also captures the volatility and chances of McGregor no longer being an elite fighter and getting finished again. 

Pick: Dustin Poirier via Knockout

Be sure to check out the FTNBets MMA page for the latest free and premium content, picks, props and more for UFC 264. To get the best odds, check out the FTN Prop Shop. Want more free content? Check out the Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and Jonah Shiffman.