Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3!
The UFC is back in front of a live crowd in the Fight Capital of the world this weekend for the trilogy fight between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The co-main event features a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson against Gilbert Burns. This will be a 13 fight DFS slate with all 26 competitors making it through the Friday weigh-ins with their fights still intact. As with any McGregor fight week, DraftKings has some massive contests in the lobby and with 13 fight slates this is lining up to be an awesome card in terms of GPP lineup construction. If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out my The Undisputed MMA Show with myself and Jon Kelly.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High-priced: Sean O’Malley ($9,500)
It’s really hard to start talking about this DFS slate with a name other than Sean O’Malley. The “Suga Show” was originally slated to feature O’Malley vs. Louis Smolka this weekend but instead, O’Malley will take on short notice regional fighter Kris Moutinho to open the main card on Saturday. O’Malley is nearly a -1000 favorite at some books right now and sports an inside the distance line around -300, which is a larger favorite than any fighter to win their fight straight up this weekend. O’Malley has shown lots of DFS upside in the past, with four of his five career wins scoring 95+ DK points. Historically, paying expensive prices for strikers in DFS is a dangerous game, but Moutinho is somebody who simply doesn’t belong in the octagon with O’Malley and has been hurt in several of his recent non-UFC fights. O’Malley figures to be the most popular fighter this weekend by a landslide so there’s a case to be made for going underweight on a 13 fight slate, but I think there's a greater than 50% chance of a 90-point first-round bonus in this spot and I’m looking to just eat the chalk and differentiate my lineups elsewhere.
Mid-priced: Stephen Thompson ($8,500)
Thompson takes on Gilbert Burns this weekend in a co-main event matchup that I think strongly favors the striker in Wonderboy. Thompson is one of the toughest puzzles to crack inside the UFC with his unique karate style and ability to counterstrike opponents. Burns is a dangerous man, which always gives him upside as well, but I think that will give Thompson plenty of counter opportunities, which raises his finishing equity. At $8.5K, it certainly doesn’t feel like you’re overpaying for Thompson, who I make an even bigger favorite than his current -155 price on the betting line. There is some caution in this spot because we have seen Thompson dominate fights before and still score less than 70 points on DK, so a lot of his upside is KO-reliant. That said, he showed 138 strike upside in a three-round fight against Vicente Luque in 2019, scoring 96 DK points in a decision. Additionally, despite the size of the slate this weekend, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of wrestling-dominant fighters who we are normally looking to target on DK. Many fighters have their upside tied to a KO, and Thompson has a good chance to get it done this weekend against Burns.
Low-priced: Hu Yaozong ($7,200)
I honestly don’t feel great about Hu this weekend, but I sort of defaulted to him in this spot because of the lack of underdogs that I have confidence in winning this weekend. Hu isn’t especially good at MMA in my eyes, but he is down to a +110 underdog in the betting market and at just $7.2K, he allows you to save money with a fighter that has a nearly 45% chance to win the fight according to the market. His fight is also -200 to end inside the distance, which seems to indicate upside on both sides. However, I am not the only one with access to those numbers, and although I’ve found ownership difficult to gauge this weekend, should Hu come in as a super chalky option, I may look to pivot to fighters like Condit, Price, Burns and Hardy, who all possess upside in the $7K range. Another fighter who I think is interesting is Ryan Hall at $7.1K who won’t be popular at all. Hall’s style is one that is very reliant on an early submission to hit a ceiling score in DFS because of how low-volume his fights are, but I do think he has a legitimate chance to beat Ilia Topuria, and it could be a situation this weekend where just one medium-large underdog wins, and a 60-70 from Hall can find it’s way into the optimal.
