UFC 264 betting breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 264:Poirier vs. McGregor 3!

The UFC travels to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, which marks the first live event with fans in the fight capital of the world since UFC 248 in March of 2020. Obviously, the conversation in Vegas and all around the combat sports world this week begins with Conor McGregor, the biggest star in our sport, as he looks to settle a 1-1 score with Dustin Poirier, who comes into this matchup as a small favorite following his knockout victory over McGregor in January.

In our co-main event, we have a classic “striker vs. grappler” style matchup pitting karate-specialist Stephen Thompson against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Gilbert Burns. The main card also features Sean O’Malley against short-notice opponent Kris Moutinho in a fight that is extremely likely to end inside the distance.

This card has 13 total fights and although the UFC never stacks McGregor pay-per-views too much because they’ll be able to sell the fight regardless, there are a handful of fun fights throughout the prelims that I’m looking forward to. I currently have bets on five of the 13 fights on Saturday, including action on both the main and co-main events. You can find all my plays FREE in the FTN Bets Tracker.

I’ll be writing this best bets article weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets and occasionally including some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that readers have, we’d love to continue building the community through Discord. 

Max Griffin (-190) vs. Carlos Condit (+165)

Griffin is just 5-6 inside the UFC but is coming off back-to-back victories via KO/TKO and seems to be finding himself inside the Octagon. Since Griffin’s debut against Colby Covington in 2016, he has fought a pretty strong strength of schedule but has basically lost against every step up in competition, with his best UFC win probably being Mike Perry. That said, I actually believe that Griffin is a well above average fighter at welterweight, and the skills have always been there, he has just run into some split decision situations and underperformed relative to his skill level in other spots. Stylistically, Griffin’s striking is much improved since his debut against Covington five years ago, as shown in both the Kenan Song and Ramiz Brahimaj wins in his last two outings. However, Griffin’s best tools lie within the wrestling realm, where he has landed 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes across his UFC career and attempts well over a takedown per round. Griffin isn’t a great wrestler in terms of landing damage and racking up control time once he gets his opponents to the mat, but he pushes a strong pace that wears on his opponents. As much as I talk about Griffin having the tools to be a solid fighter in this weight class, he is 35 years old and if he’s going to make a run towards the top 15, now is the time. 

Condit is a legend of the sport, with “The Natural Born Killer” having fought under the UFC banner since 2009 and having some massive moments inside the promotion including winning an interim championship over Nick Diaz nearly 10 years ago. There was a point not too long ago when Condit had dropped five consecutive fights, three via submission, but he has bounced back with consecutive decision wins in 2020 over Court McGee and Matt Brown. Stylistically, Condit has always been primarily a striker, but he’s also a capable BJJ player offensively. That said, wrestling defense has always been a massive hole in Condit’s gam, just 39% takedown defense, and he has the tendency to get stuck on his back throwing up low percentage submissions or getting submitted himself. At 37 years old, it’s been great to see Condit get back in the win column. I’m just not sure what his upside is at this point in his career for somebody with such obvious flaws and less dangerous striking offense than he carried in his prime. 

I had been eyeing this spot for a while now, as Griffin is somebody who I’ve been looking to “bet on” and back in the betting markets just because I think the talent level is significantly higher than his UFC body of work. Condit is kind of on the opposite end of that spectrum, as I’ve been looking to fade him. Condit was once a great action fighter but recently, I think he was fortunate to get a poor gameplan out of Court McGee who attempted zero takedowns, and although he beat up Matt Brown down the stretch, he was controlled for large portions of the fight. Although there is just a two year age differential here, the wear and tear/damage these men have taken throughout their careers couldn’t be further, and I trust Griffin to push a massive pace and mix in wrestling, while also being very competitive if not ahead in the striking realm. At -185, I’m not sure there’s a massive amount of value, but I found enough to squeeze a unit out of this play. 

Bet: Max Griffin -185 1x until -185 (Placed 7/5). 

Sean O’Malley (-1,000) vs. Kris Moutinho (+600)

This weekend, we have a bizarre matchup to start the main card between a polarizing star in Sean O’Malley against UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho, who takes the fight on 10 days notice. Most of you probably saw the line for this fight and found the analysis to be pretty straightforward, and I did as well, so I’ll keep the breakdown short. Despite it being straightforward, I actually spent a good amount of time diving into Moutinho’s regional experience, and think this spot provides some of the most value on the card. 

Regardless of what you think about Sean O’Malley, his floor at 135 pounds is a one-dimensional, well above average striker. There are parts of his game that are certainly untested but at this point, I’m comfortable labeling him as an elite striker with one potential fatal flaw being his fragility, specifically to his legs. However, Moutinho is not even in the same stratosphere as O’Malley, and I just don’t think he has any chance to compete in the striking here. Moutinho is a tough kid who moves forward and bites the mouthpiece, but he has gotten hurt or dropped in nearly all his regional fights, even the ones that he has gotten the victory in, while being finished in all four of his career losses. O’Malley has shown the tendency to “play with his food” at times before and hunt highlight finishes, but I honestly think he can win this fight whenever he wants and needs some sort of massive performance to silence the critics for taking an “easy figh.” Pretty much any wager you can make on O’Malley committing violent acts in the cage on Saturday night is worth investing in, this should be brutal. 

Bets

• Sean O’Malley/Kris Moutinho Under 1.5 Rounds -153 1.5x until -160, 1x until -175. (Placed 7/7)
• Sean O’Malley wins in Round One +150 0.5x until +130. (Placed 7/7)

Stephen Thompson (-160) vs. Gilbert Burns (+140)

Thompson has twice fought for UFC gold in the past, coming up short against Tyron Woodley twice. When he was knocked out by Anthony Pettis in 2019 at age 36 after losing to Darren Till, it seemed as though his time at the top of the welterweight division may be coming to an end. However, “Wonderboy” has put together consecutive flawless performances against Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal and may be one win away from title contention yet again. Anybody who has watched Thompson fight before knows the unique style he brings to the cage, with a wide stance and his hands down as he looks to counterstrike opponents with karate-style strikes while keeping the fight on its feet for its entirety. In terms of his takedown defense, Wonderboy has a 78% takedown defense statistically, but perhaps his best defensive approach is his lateral movement and not letting opponents get close to him, mixed in with a decent sprawl. At age 38, this is a massive fight for “Wonderboy” in terms of his championship trajectory. 

Burns comes into this matchup coming off a loss in a title shot to Kamaru Usman where he had some moments of success in the opening minutes but was ultimately finished early in the third round, which put an end to his six-fight win streak. Stylistically, Burns is a world-class grappler who has won four UFC fights via submission, and he sports a decent wrestling game, landing just over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes to get the fight into that grappling realm. In the striking realm, Gilbert’s metrics check out as decent, but he is largely reliant on landing power shots early in fights. The issue I have with Burns is that so much of what he has to do to have success in fights, which are wrestling and landing power punches, seem to zap him of energy to the point where he is not the same fighter halfway through Round 2 as he is at the opening bell. Additionally, I went over his resume on the Undisputed MMA Show yesterday, but his win streak to reach the top of the division really seems like a fortunate run against guys well past their primes in the likes of Aleksei Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Demian Maia, and Tyron Woodley. Those are great scalps to have claimed, but when we look at the context of where each opponent was in their career, Burns got fortunate to reach a title shot in my eyes.

I think the stylistic breakdown between these two men is pretty straightforward, as I don’t expect the striking to be close at all. Burns is powerful and capable of landing KO blows, but Wonderboy is such a master of distance, so it just feels like after watching Burns repeatedly hurt by Usman’s jab that he won’t have much for Thompson in terms of winning minutes on the feet. Where Burns’ main path to victory lies in my eyes is in wrestling. Wonderboy does have strong takedown defense but, as previously mentioned, is reliant on moving away from takedown attempts normally, as opposed to defending them in a more traditional sense. While Burns is capable of having success here if he can track down Thompson, I simply think he’s too slow to catch Thompson, so this fight will look more like a matador and a bull than somebody cutting the cage effectively. Speaking of the cage, this fight being in the classic 30-foot Octagon as opposed to the smaller one at the Apex facility certainly favors Thompson, who uses up the entirety of the cage to strike and manage distance. While I acknowledge Burns as a dangerous man, he doesn’t belong with the elite of this division, and his cardio struggles, as well as fragility, come into play this weekend as Wonderboy stakes his claim for a title shot. 

Bet: Stephen Thompson -135 2.5x until -135, 2x until -150, 1.5x until -165, 1x until -185. (Placed 6/19)

Dustin Poirier (-135) vs. Conor McGregor (+115)

*This breakdown comes from my UFC 264 – McGregor vs. Poirier Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview article, but now includes my bet on the fight*

As with any trilogy matchup, these two men have shared a storied history inside the UFC octagon. Their first matchup came all the way back in 2014 at UFC 178, where McGregor was entrenched as a -260 favorite and won in 106 seconds via knockout. The rematch came this January, when Poirier pulled off the upset as a +260 underdog with a second-round knockout via punches after having tons of success with calf kicks leading up to the finishing sequence. McGregor had moments of success in the rematch and won the first round 10-9 on all three judge’s scorecards, but things were visibly unraveling throughout the entirety of the second round leading to the Poirier finish. Stylistically, McGregor is one of the most diverse strikers we’ve seen in the UFC and a large part of his demise in the rematch was due to his stance switch to a more boxing-centric style that nullified his own kicking offense while leaving himself vulnerable to kicks of Poirier. On the other side, Poirier largely prefers to box in his matchups and is well-known for using a more traditional boxing-style shell guard to defend head strikes. However, Poirier is the more likely of these two men to pursue wrestling and grappling scenarios, as evidenced by his takedown in round one earlier this year.

This is such a fascinating matchup because so much hinges on which McGregor shows up to the cage. I think there is very little doubt that a prime McGregor was a better fighter than prime Poirier, but there are questions to ask surrounding where McGregor is at this point in his career. Although McGregor’s return to the octagon following his humbling loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov was a victory in style over Donald Cerrone, the fight lasted just 40 seconds and Cerrone is now winless over his last six fights. McGregor’s last win at 155 pounds came nearly five years ago in November of 2016 vs. Eddie Alvarez. For those reasons, my pick here has to be Dustin Poirier. He’s just shown a more well-rounded and complete MMA game of late. McGregor had chances to win in Round 1 of the rematch and landed some significant strikes, and I expect him to have early success again in this fight. McGregor is extremely live for an early knockout, but as the fight goes on, I expect Poirier to have a better gas tank and be able to rack up attritional damage over the course of each round. With the current odds showing a slight lean to Poirier, I currently have no bet on the fight. While I make Poirier a slightly larger favorite than the market does, we have to respect the variance that McGregor brings to each fight and his ability to end things with one shot early. The most likely way I’ll get involved with betting a side in this matchup is taking Poirier as a live bet after the first round, where I expect Conor to see some success. Another look I’ve considered betting is the under 2.5 rounds, as that captures a large portion of McGregor’s win equity and also captures the volatility and chances of McGregor no longer being an elite fighter and getting finished again. 

Bet: Dustin Poirier/Conor McGregor Under 2.5 Rounds -125 1x until -135 (Placed 7/09)