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Let’s take a look at the opening odds, early betting pick, and breakdown of the UFC 261 main event. UFC 261 takes place April 21 VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena and has three title fights. The main event is for the Welterweight title and will feature a rematch between reigning champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal.
UFC 261 Betting Odds
Here are the latest odds for Usman vs. Masvidal, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kamaru Usman enters this title bout as a -400 favorite, meaning you have to lay $400 to win $100 with a bet on the Champion. Jorge Masvidal is the Underdog is the betting underdog at +300, meaning a $100 bet would profit $300 should he pull off the upset.
Usman vs. Masvidal Fight Breakdown
These two men first fought back last July when Masvidal stepped in on six days’ notice to replace Gilbert Burns for a title fight on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi. Usman closed around -250 in the betting market and won the fight via a one-sided unanimous decision. Usman dominated that fight with his wrestling, landing 5 takedowns and upward of 15 minutes of control time. Masvidal had some moments of success, primarily early on in the fight when he was full of energy. However, the pace that Usman fought at paired with Masvidal taking the fight on short notice led to Masvidal growing exhausted early on in the fight. Stylistically, Masvidal is one of the best boxers in MMA and would like to keep this fight standing, while Usman is the bigger man with better wrestling and cardio and would prefer to make the fight a grind.
FTN MMA Betting Picks — UFC 261
Although I acknowledge that there were tough circumstances for Masvidal leading up to the first iteration of this fight, I just don’t see much changing in the rematch. Masvidal has a chance early to win rounds and potentially knock out Usman, who we’ve seen hurt in his most recent fight against Gilbert Burns. However, the striking of Usman seems to be consistently improving and that helps set up his wrestling, which he is sure to try and use in this matchup. Masvidal likely keeps things competitive here for the first round or two, but I favor Usman heavily in this matchup and think he likely pulls away late in the fight with the potential to dominate for a full 25 minutes.
Bet: Kamaru Usman -285 1.5x till -325, 1x till -375 (Placed March 16 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Be sure to check out the FTNBets MMA page for the latest free and premium content, picks, props and more for UFC 261. To get the best odds, check out the FTN Prop Shop. Want more free content? Check out the Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and Jonah Shiffman.
