UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal betting breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for the UFC 251 PPV card in Abu Dhabi, which is headlined by Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman! This is one of the best cards the UFC has put together in a long time, featuring three title fights that include the previously mentioned short-notice welterweight championship. In addition to the three title bouts, there are a bunch of exciting high action fights up and down this card. Sometimes in MMA, we get these star-studded lineups but the betting market doesn’t provide much value. Fortunately for us, this Saturday night is not one of those situations. The betting market for UFC 251 is ripe with opportunities, and I’ve already placed four bets, including a rare max bet. I will be writing this article weekly with extended breakdowns for each of my bets while sometimes including some leans. On PPV weeks, as we have on Saturday, I’ll add quick previews for every fight even if I have no action myself. I will be in the FTNBets chat for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that subscribers may have. In addition to this article, I broke down this slate from a betting and DFS perspective with Jon Kelly in video form that can be found here.

Martin Day (-165) v Davey Grant

Martin Day is a decent kickboxer who is coming off a split decision loss against Pingyuan Liu in his UFC debut. The fight was close, and you could go as far as saying Day deserved to win. Day moves well laterally and lands solid volume on the feet. Davey Grant is 34 years old and comes into this fight 2-3 in the UFC. His gameplan is likely going to be grappling-oriented, as he lands over 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes. If Grant can’t get this fight to the map, I think he will struggle with the standup attacks from Martin Day, who is the rightful favorite here. But I’m not willing to lay -165 on a guy with somewhat untested takedown defense against somebody who may look to wrestle often. Pass.

Karol Rosa (-240) v Vanessa Melo (+200)

Karol Rosa enters her second UFC bout after defeating Lara Procópio via split decision in her first UFC fight. Rosa is a solid volume-based standup fighter which we saw when she landed 171 significant strikes in that last fight. Look for a lot of combinations featuring leg kicks from Rosa, as she walks forward in this fight. Vanessa Melo enters this fight 0-2 in the UFC and is potentially fighting to keep her spot in the promotion. Melo has faced some difficult competition recently, but I’ve been unimpressed with her skill set despite the opponents. She’s slow and very hittable on the feet, I think her only real path to victory here is a sketchy standup fight where both girls land a ton without much power. You could argue that Rosa is deserving of a wider price in this fight, but it’s difficult to lay -240 on a lower level WMMA fight. Pass.

Raulian Paiva (-170) v Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+150)

Raulian Paiva is a prospect who I’m generally high on. He enters this fight coming off his first UFC victory in his previous fight, though you could argue that he deserves to be 2-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming by way of stoppage via cut against Rogério Bontorin in a fight he was winning up until the stoppage. At just 24 years old, Paiva enters this contest with 22 career fights, which shows us that he has a lot of experience for a prospect of his caliber. Paiva is very long for the 125-pound division, standing at 5-foot-8 with a 69.5-inch reach. We can expect Paiva to maintain his distance while throwing straight punches down the middle and keeping his opponent on the outside. Zhalgas Zhumagulov is making his UFC debut in this matchup and despite being 31 years old coming into his first fight in the promotion, he’s a fairly solid prospect in his own right. A former champion at Fight Nights Global, Zhumagolov comes in with a slow style where Paiva is going to be significantly faster on the feet, and I don’t expect many grappling exchanges. I’ve been keeping an eye on the line for this fight, as it continues to move in the direction of Zhumagulov. Lean Paiva, as I will look to bet him if this gets to about -150. Stay tuned in our subscriber MMA chat and I’ll be updating my thoughts there as the market evolves.

Marcin Tybura (-115) v Maxim Grishin (-105)

This fight features our first short-notice replacement of the card, as Maxim Grishin is standing in for Alexander Romanov to take on UFC veteran Marcin Tybura. I had originally bet Tybura in this spot against Romanov, but that was more of a fade against Romanov and less of a bet on Tybura. Grishin is a UFC newcomer but has competed in PFL and has wins in his career over established UFC veterans such as Alexander Volkov. With Grishin moving up a weight class for this fight, I’m not exactly sure what to expect from him, and it’s difficult to bet Tybura against anybody with power, as he’s not very durable at this point in his career. Pass.

Leonardo Santos (-170) v Roman Bogatov (+150)

Leonardo Santos is an enigma. He’s unbeaten in the UFC with quality wins over Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin, but he comes into this matchup at 40 years old. Santos has fought with extended layoffs his entire UFC career with just seven fights since 2013 but when he steps in that octagon, he usually looks like he hasn’t missed a step. A high-level submission grappler with deceptive power, Santos is a really tough out at 155 pounds. Roman Bogatov comes into this matchup under nearly the complete opposite circumstances as Santos. He’s 29 years old and making his UFC debut. When watching tape on Bogatov, it’s clear that his game plan is going to be grappling heavy no matter the opponent. The issue with that strategy in this fight is that you don’t want to be on the ground with Leonardo Santos. If Bogatov does get this fight to the mat, he will be in constant danger against the fourth degree BJJ blackbelt. I think Santos is better mostly everywhere in this fight, but it’s difficult to bet a 40-year-old coming off a long layoff who has a tendency to not throw much on the feet and has found himself in some low volume kickboxing matchups before. Lean Sanos, as I will look to bet him if this gets to about -150. Stay tuned in our subscriber MMA chat and I’ll be updating my thoughts there as the market evolves.

Makwan Amirkhani (-210) vs Danny Henry (+175)

Makwan Amirkhani is one of those fighters where when you look at his pure skills you feel like he should perform better than he has in the past. Makwan is a strong wrestler who can string takedowns together, averaging 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC tenure. He’s also a talented submission grappler, with 10 of his wins coming by way of submission. He’s better than Danny Henry everywhere in this fight. Neither guy is super impressive on the feet, and Makwan should be able to take the fight to the ground, but the price is simply too steep to pay. Amirikhani is difficult to bet on because he seems to get himself in dangerous positions in every fight. We’ve seen his cardio fail him multiple times as fights get into deep waters, most recently against Shane Burgos last November. In addition to the cardio issues, Makwan puts himself in some dangerous spots on the mat and has been nearly submitted a few times in his UFC career. Even though Henry is the inferior submission grappler here, we’ve seen him be opportunistic with submission attempts before in his career, most notably snatching a violent guillotine against Hakeem Dawodu. Pass.

Muslim Salikhov (-135) v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+115)

Muslim Salikhov is one of the most dangerous power punchers in the welterweight division. With 12 of “The King of Kung Fu’s” 16 career wins coming by way of knockout, he packs some real power not only in his hands but also in his feet as well – four spinning kick finishes. Salikhov isn’t necessarily known for his high output or putting a pace on his opponents, but once he takes a few minutes to figure the timing of his competition, he has a dangerous counter right hand that is deceptively fast. One hole we’ve seen in Salikhov’s game has been his grappling, with only 72% of takedowns defended and his only two career losses via submission.

That brings us to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who is a killer in his own right. Elizeu throws a lot of capoeira attacks full of spins and flashy strikes. We’ve seen that lead to several flashy finishes at the UFC level. One concern I have about dos Santos is his durability. We saw him get knocked down three times by Jingliang Li two fights ago and eventually finished. So while Elizeu may be at a slight disadvantage on the feet in terms of both durability and speed, his grappling is potentially the biggest mismatch in this fight. Elizeu hasn’t been known for his wrestling in the past with only a 20% successful takedown rate at the UFC level, but I think we’ve slowly seen some improvements in his takedown offense, especially in his last fight where he timed two double leg takedowns on Alexey Kunchenko. Dos Santos is a high IQ fighter. When he fought against Curtis Millender, a guy known for his submission defense shortcomings, Santos took that fight to the ground and finished with a choke halfway through the first round. As previously mentioned, the one potential hole we’ve seen in Salikhov’s game is his inability to get up and survive when taken down.

I considered betting dos Santos as an underdog in this fight here, and I may still end up doing that, but for now, I locked in the under 2.5 rounds at +113 bet. Both fighters are live for a finish on the feet here with their spinning attacks and powerful strikes, but dos Santos has a second path to victory on the ground that isn’t being factored into this line enough. This should be a banger of a fight and I fully expect somebody to go to sleep from a punch or choke on Saturday night.

PLAY: UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS +113 (placed 7/3) 1X GOOD UNTIL -110.

Volkan Oezdemir (-145) v Ji?í Procházka (+125)

Portions of this breakdown are taken from my MMA Betting Primer that outlined some future bets I’ve made. You can find that here.

A highly touted prospect coming into the UFC, Volkan Oezdemir put together a quick winning streak and found himself in a UFC light heavyweight title fight against Daniel Cormier just four fights into his time with the promotion. Volkan lost that fight, and then his next two bouts following that as well, but has rallied to put together a small two-fight win streak in his last two appearances. In those fights, he’s faced off against Ilir Latifi and Aleksandar Rakic. Nicknamed “No Time,” Oezdemir is known for his power punching that can put his opponents to sleep quickly. Don’t let that fool you though, Volkan is a well-polished striker with a wide arsenal of attacks that he can use to damage his opponents.

While I do think Volkan Oezdemir is a decent contender at light heavyweight, this bet is mostly a fade of Procházka. The former RIZIN champ will be making his UFC debut on Fight Island and enters this contest with a 26-3-1 professional record. While that looks very impressive at first, it’s important to note that Prochazka has faced very poor competition while padding his record. Procházka brings a high-octane offensive kickboxing game to the table but leaves a lot to be desired with both his striking defense and grappling skills. When watching tape of Jiri one hole that stood out to me was his inability to check leg kicks. We saw him in his last fight against UFC veteran CB Dolloway and he looked uncomfortable every time a leg kick connected. Volkan is a serious leg kick threat, you don’t have to look much further than Aleksandar Rakic’s knee in their last fight.

Procházka has not faced anybody on the level of Volkan Oezdemir before in his career, and I expect that the UFC veteran with title fight experience will be able to capitalize on the glaring holes in Procházka’s game that I previously mentioned. We’ve seen Jiri beat up on a bunch of lower-level fighters, but I don’t think he will look so invincible when he faces a guy who will hit him back. Expect Volkan to frustrate Jiri with leg kicks, and then turn his attention to exposing the lackadaisical, hands-down defensive approach from Prozchaka. There will also be a grappling advantage for Volkan in this fight if he chooses to go that route. Another wildcard with Procházka is his cardio. This is a guy who has barely been out of the first round in his career, let’s see what he looks like if this fight becomes a war in the later rounds.

PLAY: VOLKAN OEZDEMIR -160 (placed 6/27) 1X GOOD UNTIL -208.

Amanda Ribas (-750) v Paige VanZant (+525)

We can keep this breakdown short and sweet. Amanda Ribas is significantly better at every single aspect of fighting than PVZ, who is a competent submission grappler against lower-level UFC opponents. But Amanda Ribas is unquestionably one of the best prospects in WMMA right now. Ribas should be able to outbox or outwrestle VanZant and can win this fight wherever she chooses to take it. I’m not laying the huge chalk, but this isn’t a spot where you can take an underdog shot either. It’s rare to see a cage fight with an 85-90% implied probability towards one fighter from the betting market, but this is one of those situations. Pass.

Rose Namajunas (-220) v Jéssica Andrade (+180)

This is one of the most interesting fights and betting lines on the entire UFC 251 Card. These two women first fought in May of 2019 for the UFC straweight title when Jéssica Andrade famously slammed Namjunas on her head and got a knockout victory. The interesting part about the betting line in this fight is Rose Namajunas comes in as a -220 favorite after getting slammed on her head in a fight when she was the underdog just 14 months ago. The reasoning for this is obvious when you watch the fight: “Thug Rose” absolutely dominated the first five minutes of this fight. She frustrated Andrade with her lateral movement, and consistently landed shots to the face of Jessica while avoiding getting hit herself. There is an argument that the first round of that fight was the best round of Rose Namajunas’ career, and remember she beat Joanna J?drzejczyk twice!

A lot of people classify Andrade’s win as some sort of “fluke,” which is a dangerous narrative when analyzing this upcoming fight. In some senses, yes the finish was a fluke because the likelihood of a slam finish in this fight on Saturday night is extremely low. However, Andrade’s path to victory remains the same: be physical, wrestle and utilize her strength. While Namajunas is a talented submission artist, she struggles to fend off takedowns, with her career defense below 50%. Andrade is somebody who averages over one takedown per round, and there is a non-fluke path to victory for her in this fight that includes a wrestling-heavy gameplan.

After the fight, Andrade went on to lose her title against current strawweight queen Weili Zhang. Andrade got caught by some big elbows in a clinch scenario within the first minute of the fight and was finished soon after. While there isn’t much to take away from that fight, one thing we can see is Jessica struggles in clinch situations. She got knocked down by Rose in their first fight with a knee up the middle and then knocked out by elbows in the clinch. That is a position she needs to avoid in this fight. One position Rose needs to avoid is something that is entirely in her control: the kimura lock. I say this is fully in Rose’s control because unlike avoiding a clinch scenario or wrestling scenario, the kimura lock as a takedown defense strategy is a calculated move by fighters. Namajunas attempted this defense twice back in May and was slammed both times.

After losing her title, Rose went on to describe the loss as “feeling like a weight was lifted off her shoulders” and publicly considered retirement. I would not let those quotes influence your take on this fight. Many point to Rose and call her mentally weak or a “headcase,” but I guarantee you when that octagon door shuts on Saturday night, Rose Namajunas will be present and ready.

As for the betting line, Rose is the rightful favorite in this matchup. She’s one of my favorite fighters in the game right now because when she is on, she is ON. That first round looked like two fighters who didn’t deserve to be in the same octagon together. However, the line is getting to be quite wide for a fight where there are obvious advantages for Andrade. I’m passing for now, but if the line gets close to +200, I may be forced to take an underdog shot on Jéssica Andrade. I think an under 2.5 rounds play is also intriguing, but need a significantly better line for that as well

Petr Yan (-210) v José Aldo (+175)

Petr Yan enters his first UFC title bout undefeated in the UFC with a 6-0 record. Yan is one of the best strikers in the lower weight classes of the UFC. Yan is a fighter who often starts slow and takes time to feint and measure distance with his opponent, which is one of the signs of an educated fighter. He’s shown well-rounded offensive skills with a takedown in each of his last four fights to go along with his strong boxing. There are a few holes in Yan’s game that aren’t talked about enough though. Firstly, his level of UFC competition has not been as strong as most first-time title challengers. That’s not to say Yan hasn’t fought anybody decent or good, but his most impressive win is likely Jimmie Rivera followed by John Dodson and Urijah Faber, who are both at the tail ends of their career. Secondly, we’ve seen Petr Yan get hurt in fights against that level of competition. John Dodson knocked him down, and Urijah Faber even stunned him once in a situation where Urijah seemed like he was on his way to getting knocked out, which he eventually was. Perhaps the most telling and toughest fight of Yan’s career was against Jimmie Rivera, where you could make the argument that he was losing each of the first two rounds before securing knockdowns of his opponent in the final minute of each round. Of course, Yan did get those knockdowns, and we can’t ignore the power he brings to the table with the ability to drop his opponent at any second, but he was showing some holes in his game previous to those knockdowns. One hole specifically was leg kicks. Yan ate 16 kicks in those 15 minutes, which doesn’t sound like a ton but when you go back and watch the tape, it’s very evident that he was struggling with the kicks.

That brings us to one of the most storied leg-lickers in UFC history, Jose Aldo. I’ll start this section off by saying unfortunately, I don’t think Aldo is going to capitalize on the leg kick advantages in this fight. Aldo is 33 years old but has a lot of mileage on his body and has largely abandoned his leg kicks in recent fights. Aldo is 0-1 in his UFC career at 135 pounds but enters this fight with 11 title bouts under the UFC banner. Aldo looked decent in his last fight, a controversial split decision loss to Marlon Moraes, but we’ve seen his skills naturally decline as he becomes older. One thing that hasn’t left Aldo is his power. Two of his last four fights have ended in KO victories for the Brazilian, and I think he’s fairly live for an early knockout against Yan on Saturday night.

I noted how Yan is a slow starter and it’s very possible we see Aldo come out and win the early parts of this fight. I would even go as far as saying Aldo is a favorite to win the first round. However, if this fight leaves the early stages and we head toward the championship rounds, I expect Petr Yan to come on strong. Yan is young and picks up the pace as his previous fights have gone on. On the other hand, Aldo has always struggled with cardio a bit and I worry about his durability in a fight against a killer like Yan that is scheduled for 25 minutes.

Early this week, I was planning on playing an over 2.5 rounds in this fight, expecting Aldo to win rounds early without a finish before Yan came on strong, but that line has gotten away from me a bit. I’ve also considered betting Jose Aldo, but think I would need closer to +200 to make a bet as his best path to victory is limited to an early-round knockout, and I have worries about his cardio and durability once the fight reaches the third/fourth round. Because of those factors, pre-fight betting is a pass at the current numbers for me. I may look to bet Petr Yan live after the first or second round if he is losing and Aldo is appearing to tire. I will be in the FTNBets chat on Saturday night and will post all live plays there to alert everybody.

Alexander Volkanovski (-220) v Max Holloway (+185)

This is the second rematch of the UFC 251 card, as the former featherweight king Max Holloway is challenging the current champion Alexander Volkanovski for the 145 belt. The first fight was competitive, and unlike the Namajunas/Andrade, I think the rematch for this fight may look a lot like the first fight. Despite this, I think Max Holloway makes for a strong value bet on this card.

Volkanovski outpointed Holloway in their first fight, with one of his best weapons being his leg kicks. Max started slow as per usual, but picked up the pace and landed more strikes in the last two rounds of the fight. We continue to talk about adjustments Max Holloway needs to make, such as checking leg kicks, and while that’s true, I could also see a scenario where Max doesn’t make many adjustments and simply lands more strikes in longer combinations this time out. Holloway is a notoriously slow starter and if he’s able to have competitive early rounds in this fight, he’s certainly live to pull the upset. There’s also a chance that Max comes in with a completely altered gameplan for this fight and looks to get into a war, which I think favors Max, as I consider him the more powerful puncher despite the damage he’s taken in his career.

If I had a gun to my head and had to pick a winner for this fight, I’d have to take Alexander Volkanovski just based off of their first fight. But that’s not how betting works, and I was able to grab a +200 on Max Holloway earlier this week. The bottom line about this fight is Max Holloway at 28 years old should never be given a 33% implied chance of winning a volume boxing match. Max has been winning high paced boxing fights for years at the most elite UFC levels, and I think the market is overreacting to the first matchup between these two. The biggest possible favorite I could make Volkanovski in this fight is 60%, which would give Holloway a 40% chance. I look for about a 5% edge before placing my bets, and Max Holloway at +200 was nearly a 7% edge. I would play Holloway up until a 35% implied probability rating in this fight, which I expect to play out very close.

PLAY: MAX HOLLOWAY +200 (played 7/5) 1X GOOD UNTIL +186

Kamaru Usman (-245) v Jorge Masvidal (+205)

Our third title fight is one that has been in the making for months but was just formally announced six days ago. Kamaru Usman was originally slated to fight Gilbert Burns on this card before Burns tested positive for COVID-19. I had already bet Usman -190 against Burns in that fight, which I was excited for, but this matchup presents a huge betting opportunity as well.

Usman is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. Despite being 11-0 in the promotion, Usman is constantly slept on when people discuss the most dominant fighters in the game. The “Nigerian Nightmare” is coming off a seven-month layoff for this fight after his first UFC welterweight title defense against Colby Covington in December of 2019. Usman beat Tyron Woodley to win the belt in March of 2019 and is currently undefeated in the UFC with a 14-fight win streak dating back to 2013. He’s widely regarded as one of the best wrestlers in MMA, averaging 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Once Usman takes opponents down, he has a dominant top control game that makes it very difficult for his opponents to get back to their feet. Against Colby Covington, however, we saw zero attempted takedowns from Usman, as he showed off a vastly improved striking game that ended with a fifth-round knockout. This fight left little doubt that Usman is the best 170-pound fighter in the world right now, and it’s going to take a special performance to dethrone the champ.

Jorge Masvidal is no stranger to special performances. “Gamebred” is living up to his nickname here, stepping up and signing the dotted line on six days’ notice for a world title fight. Jorge is a veteran of the fight game with 48 fights under his belt, but this will be his first UFC title fight. Masvidal is one of the best boxers in the UFC, with three consecutive knockouts against Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz respectively. Masvidal has underrated takedown defense as well, coming into this fight stuffing takedowns at 78%. A lot has been made of Masvidal taking this fight on short notice and having to cut a lot of weight in a short amount of time, but he’s been training with Dustin Poirier recently and I expect him to make weight and be ready to come out firing in round one.

As for the betting market: I won’t beat around the bush: I’m max betting Kamaru Usman by risking five units in this fight. While I could see a competitive first few rounds between these two, Usman is the kind of guy that puts a serious pace on his opponents and has historically outlasted everybody he’s faced. In his last octagon appearance, he fought a cardio machine in Covington and broke his jaw late in the fight before eventually scoring a knockout win with about a minute left in the fight. Jorge is a fighter, he always has been. I expect him to come into this fight ready to go early, but when Usman starts wearing down his opponents, it’s trouble. As previously mentioned, the first round or two of this fight may be close, especially if they play out on the feet. I would give a striking advantage to Masvidal for sure, but Kamaru has underrated boxing that should be improving with each fight, especially after moving to Denver to train for this fight with Trevor Wittman.

Speaking of Colorado, Usman has had a full six-week training camp in Colorado, and we know he’s in shape to push the pace for 25 minutes. Jorge Masvidal has gone to the fourth round two times in the UFC. The longer this fight goes, the more wrestling success Usman is going to have. Similarly to how Usman has underrated standup, Jorge has an underrated getup game when wrestling. It just can’t be stated enough how relentless Kamaru is and if Jorge can’t score an early knockout, he’s going to be using a ton of energy on short notice while getting continuously clinched and slowly beat up by Usman.

I don’t like betting on low-percentage flashy outcomes, and that’s what Jorge Masvidal needs to win this fight. There have been conversations had about MMA analysts asking if Kamaru Usman is going to stand with Jorge Masvidal because he stood with Colby Covington, and I would be shocked if that happened here. Kamaru Usman has taken all his UFC opponents down at least twice except for superstar grapplers in Covington and Maia (as well as Sergio Moraes, though that was due to an early knockout). If Usman implements the right gameplan in this fight, which I’m very confident he will, I just can’t see many ways for Jorge to win besides an early fluke KO.

PLAY: KAMARU USMAN -252 (placed 7/4) RISK 5X UNTIL -300. BET TO WIN 1X UNTIL -350. This bet is effectively a two unit bet, where we are betting x to win 2 units. 5 units risked is my max play, so I am risking 5 units to win roughly 1.97. If you have a number cheaper than -250, play to win 2x. *I will note that this fight is seeing a lot of public action come in on Jorge at the time of writing, I expect the odds to shift significantly toward Usman with sharper money coming in as the fight approaches.