PFL 10 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for PFL 10: PFL World Championships. While UFC 267 and UFC 268 have been stealing all the headlines in the MMA world recently, PFL has put together a solid season of fights with their season format. Wednesday marks their night of championship fights, in which each weight class has a title bout that will lead to a $1M prize for the winner.

The card takes place at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Fla., and is headlined by Kayla Harrison, who is currently a -3500 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win her third $1M prize prior to her impending free agency this winter. This card is actually pretty awesome from an entertainment perspective, and I think there are some solid betting spots as well.

You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bets Tracker. I’ll be writing this column weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets, and occasionally some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every UFC event, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and myself.

For this edition of my best bets article, I’m just going to write a short summary for all four of my bets.

PFL 10

Here’s a look at my best bets for Wednesday’s betting slate.

Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Marthin Hamlet betting odds

Carlos Junior -190, Hamlet +160, DraftKings Sportsbook

Carlos Junior or “Shoeface” as he’s known in some circles, departed from the UFC this January after 7-5 (1 NC) record inside the promotion and has since been undefeated in PFL including a win over former $1M champion Emiliano Sordi in the semifinals. Hamlet is a product of the Cage Warriors promotion in Europe and is 2-1 in PFL.

In terms of how I see this fight playing out, I expect Hamlet to be the stronger wrestler and land takedowns, but ACJ is no joke on the ground and his BJJ may pose issues to the Norwegian fighter. Something that’s important to mention in this fight and throughout the rest of the card is that this is a five-round fight, and neither man here has good cardio. I could see this fight becoming a sloppy affair should it reach the championship rounds. While I understand ACJ being a small favorite in this matchup due to his experience and previous strength of schedule, Hamlet is worth a shot at solid underdog odds considering he has power on the feet and should land takedowns while frustrating ACJ with his pure strength and ability to spend time on top.

Bet

Marthin Hamlet +200 1x until +175 (Placed Monday at FoxBet)

Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Chris Wade betting odds

Khaybulaev -170, Wade +150, DraftKings Sportsbook

Khaybulaev is undefeated in his MMA career through 20 fights with a 18-0-1 (1 NC) record including four wins inside the UFC, though his draw came to Andre Harrison within PFL and his “No-Contest” was actually a 30 second KO loss to Daniel Pineda in 2019. Stylistically, Khaybulaev brings the exact type of style you would expect from a fighter out of Dagestan with a wrestling heavy approach, but his technical striking is also above average. Wade is a UFC veteran who is criminally underrated and has put together a nice run in PFL and has a chance to fight for his first $1M prize Tuesday.

Stylistically, I expect Khaybulaev to move forward and try to land takedowns in this matchup, but I anticipate that may be more difficult than he’s expecting. Wade is a tremendous defensive wrestler and although he is prone to getting taken down, he oftentimes is able to induce scrambles or reversals of position. Wade has a large volume advantage when this fight is on the feet as well, as Khaybulaev is a low-output striker. Lastly, I anticipate there to be a large cardio discrepancy in this fight as we move towards the championship rounds as Wade is capable of pushing a frantic pace while Khaybulev has a much sketchier gas tank. So while I think Khaybulaev may have some success with his initial takedowns and understand him being a small favorite, this fight is close to 50/50 and I really think Wade is capable of winning this matchup a large portion of the time as a sizable dog.

Bet

Chris Wade +190 1.5x until +185, 1x until +160. (Placed Monday on FoxBet)

Claressa Shields vs. Abigail Montes betting odds

Shields -275, Montes +220, DraftKings Sportsbook

We can keep this breakdown short and sweet: I am going to continue fading Claressa Shields in MMA bouts as long as her opponents have A) a pulse and B) some understanding of grappling.

For as great as Shields may be in the boxing world, I have not been impressed with her MMA game. We faded her in her first fight and although she ended up winning by 3rd round KO as a -400 favorite, she showed severe weakness in her grappling game. Montes is just 21 and has only two professional fights, but she has a standup background and won her last fight via ground and pound after landing a takedown 90 seconds into the fight. Shields is obviously a favorite if this fight stays standing, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Montes looks -200 here.

Bet

Abigal Montes +400 1.25x until +400, 1x until +300 (Placed Saturday at BetMGM)

Magomed Magomedkerimov vs. Ray Cooper III betting odds

Magomedkerimov -200, Cooper +170, DraftKings Sportsbook

Magomedkerimov is undefeated within PFL, having gone a perfect 10-0 inside the promotion including a previous win over Cooper. Stylistically, Magomedkerimov isn’t an awful striker and has decent power, but he is most known for his aggressive takedown game and solid submission skills. Cooper is 10-2-1 in PFL and is currently unbeaten over his last six fights in the promotion with three finishes. Stylistically, Cooper carries a lot of power in each of his hands, and he has solid offensive wrestling that he showed off last time out against Rory MacDonald.

These are two solid fighters, but there is simply levels of difference between the two of them and this is also a fight we’ve seen play out before. Although Cooper has impressed recently with his offensive wrestling, the last time he faced somebody determined to take him down was Magomedkerimov in the 2018 championship and Cooper was controlled for an entire round before getting submitted in the second. While Cooper is live for a knockout in any one of his fights, I truly believe he’s going to need to finish Magomedkerimov via knockout in order to get his hand raised. The Dagestani fighter is simply too dominant of a minute winner and should be able to control the grappling here for long stretches of the fight.