Noche UFC MMA Betting Odds (9/16)

After Sean Strickland shook up the middleweight division in Australia, the UFC is back in Vegas to celebrate Mexican Independence Day in the T-Mobile Arena. This time, the show will be headlined by a rematch between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso. Shevchenko looks to regain her title after losing it to Grasso this past March.

The co-main event, which could be seen as the main event anywhere on the planet, is between Jack Della Maddalena and the always-exciting and dangerous Kevin “The Trailblazer” Holland. Holland is on a two-fight win streak, while Maddalena hasn’t lost since his second professional fight back in 2016. The youngest fighter on the roster also makes another appearance when Raul Rosas Jr. takes on The Ultimate Fighter alum Terrence Mitchell. Both fighters like to grapple, and both waste no time getting after it.

There are five fights on the main card and 11 overall Saturday. Below, I break down the main card from a betting perspective. With each breakdown, I gave you guys the best bet and my rationale. All odds are per BetMGM.

Shevchenko vs. Grasso Odds

Valentina Shevchenko -170, Alexa Grasso +141

Grasso shocked the world when she submitted Shevchenko. In a fight that wasn’t going her way, Grasso hung tough and found her moment. The win for Grasso showed just how small the window for mistakes is at the highest level. Shevchenko was on her way to a decision victory, and Grasso succeeded in the first round with her boxing. But once Shevchenko incorporated her wrestling, the momentum shifted in favor of the former champ. The first fight was exciting, a battle of inches, and wasn’t a walk in the park for the champion. Yet it’s impossible to ignore that she was having her way on the ground and would surely win on the scorecards. Grasso must have perfect takedown defense if she hopes to keep things close this time. I won’t call the current champion a fluke or even insinuate that she’s lucky. She worked hard, fought harder, and capitalized on a mistake. She may come into this one with less nerves, but I fully expect Valentina to have her way and dominate from pillar to post. Shevchenko averages nearly 18 minutes of fight time, 3.29 significant strikes landed per minute and is accurate on 53% of her strikes. She also defends 63% of strikes coming her way and lands nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes.

Grasso averages 14 minutes of fight time, 4.88 significant strikes landed per minute and is accurate on 43% of her strikes. She fights with a lot of pressure and volume, but her takedown defense while it sits at 61%. It looked more like 25%, as she couldn’t stop any takedowns. The pick is Shevchenko to get it done by either submission or decision. For one, I believe she will want to get her lick back for getting submitted last time out, and also because Grasso has never been knocked out but has been subbed.

Bet: Valentina Shevchenko by submission or decision +100 

Holland vs. Della Maddalena Odds

Kevin Holland +125, Jack Della Maddalena -150

Della Maddalena came into the UFC through the Contender Series. He officially made his debut last year in 2022 and, in total, fought four times and finished every fight in the first round. Della Maddalena is from Perth, Australia, and he started his career 0-2 in 2016. Since then, he’s gone 15-0 with 13 finishes. His last fight saw him take on a tough debutant that saw him get taken down a lot, but ultimately, he would win on the scorecards. It was interesting to watch Della Maddalena get taken down so much, but his composure and tank held up well and proved to be in a good place if he ever needed to dig deep. Della Maddalena is a stand-up specialist and explicitly uses his boxing to create paths to victory. He mainly uses his defense well, as he defends 69% of strikes coming his way. Another tool is his toughness and power. Della Maddalena is accurate and defends well, but he still tends to absorb a lot of damage and averages 3.50 significant strikes absorbed.

It’s good Della Maddalena has durability because while he does defend well, he sometimes brawls. Brawling with Holland can end terribly for anyone, let alone Jack Della Maddalena. For Jack to succeed, he must close the distance between him and Holland. Holland has a nine-inch reach advantage, so Maddalena has to fight in the pocket and keep Holland in close range instead of on the outside, where he can’t reach him. Holland historically is a wild card, so the style of fight or approach he brings to the octagon is always unpredictable. The sure things are that Holland has massive power, great submissions and the willingness to fight anyone they put before him. Since jumping down to 170 pounds, Holland is undefeated with all finishes. Many are saying this is a big test for Maddalena, but in my opinion, it’s a big test for Holland. Holland is a journeyman with no other motivation than money. While his fights are exciting, he isn’t the most technical and isn’t as good as everyone makes him out to be on the ground.

This fight will be the fight of the night, and I think both fighters bring fire to the octagon, and when the dust settles, it’ll be Maddalena with his hand raised. 

Bet: Jack Della Maddalena ML -145 

Rosas vs. Mitchell Odds

Raul Rosas Jr. -800, Terrence Mitchell +500

Rosas entered the UFC as the youngest fighter in the octagon. He made history as the youngest fighter in the contender series. His age quickly became an afterthought as his skill hushed skeptics and dominated his opponent from pillar to post. His last time out, Christian Rodriguez exposed Rosas and showed the young fighter the holes that needed to be filled if he genuinely hoped to be champion one day. Rosas is a world-class grappler, and for most of his career, he has leveraged his grappling to get fights to the ground where he can dominate. In the battle against Rodriguez, his stand-up skills were lacking, and once the takedown was stuffed, Rosas looked like a rookie.

Luckily, he’s up against another grapple-heavy fighter, who, like him, doesn’t like fights standing much. For example, Rosas and Mitchell combined average less than one significant strike landed in the UFC. Mitchell made his way into your living room in 2016. He was on the ultimate fighter show that produced Kai Kara France. In that season, Mitchell was highlighted after he smack-talked Kara France and soon after was knocked out by Kai. Since then, Mitchell has fought back to the UFC, going 3-0 on the Alaskan Regional Scene. Mitchell’s wins have come in the first round and by submission, which is why this fight for Rosas seems like an alley-oop. Mitchell has a height and reach advantage, but the fact that he instead grapples and does not strike gives the edge to Raul. The pick is for Rosas to get it done inside the first round by sub. Both guys grapple, and the better grappler is Rosas by a country mile. 

Bet: Rosas by submission in Round 1 +100 | Rosas by submission -175 

Zellhuber vs. Giagos Odds

Daniel Zellhuber -275, Christos Giagos +215

Giagos takes on the gatekeeper role when he welcomes Zellhuber to his third official fight in the UFC. Giagos has been with the UFC since 2014 and has been in there with the best of the best. He currently sits at 6-6 overall. He is well-rounded, has decent wrestling and has knockout power. Giagos displayed his knockout power against Ricky Glenn, knocking him out in the first round. The knockout was impressive, but like most of his wins in the UFC, it was against subpar competition. Giagos’ losses have been to real fighters and former champions. The fighters he has beaten are either now cut or retired, indicating that even though Giagos has been in the game for a while, he hasn’t beaten anyone noteworthy. He also doesn’t have the greatest gas tank outside of the first round. Zellhuber has a six-inch reach advantage three three-inch height advantage, and averages three times more significant strikes than Giagos. He also has a 91% takedown defense. While Giagos may attempt nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes, I envision seeing those takedowns stuffed and Giagos running out of gas and eventually being stopped. Over half of Giagos’ losses in the ufc have come by stoppage. This fight isn’t to set up a middle-of-the-road fighter for title contention. This fight is a setup for Zellhuber to continue to shine in the UFC by creating a nightlight reel for the fans on Mexican Independence Day. Zellhuber has also never been stopped, and his only losses have come by decision. So, any power that Giagos displayed in his last fight, I’m not worried about. 

Bet: Daniel Zellhuber by KO/TKO or submission +120

Padilla vs. Nelson Odds

Fernando Padilla -250, Kyle Nelson +200

Beginning his career in 2017, Padilla has been a natural at featherweight. His size, length and speed make him a problem for all opponents in a weight class typically filled with smaller fighters. He has fast hands, devastating elbows, and knees in the clinch, and if the fight goes to the ground, he is also well-equipped. At 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach, Padilla displayed just how sharp he is when he debuted against Julian Erosa and finished him in under two minutes. Now, he steps in against Canadian Nelson, who has been in the UFC since 2018. Nelson has had a rough go during his tenure with the UFC and currently sits at 2-4 overall, with his best performance this past June against formidable contender Blake Bilder. That fight showed that Nelson seemed to be putting it all together at the highest level finally. He didn’t have any gas tank issues, and when he needed it, he used his wrestling as a safety valve to solidify rounds and end combinations. Nelson looked good, yet in this matchup, I think the size, speed, and ability to stop takedowns will stifle Nelson. At 2-4, I’m sure the promotion doesn’t mind if Nelson wins, but this fight looks like a set-up fight for Padilla to shine. Even though Padilla finished his debut in under two minutes, I see this fight going past the first round, and if a finish happens, it’ll be late in the second round or the third. Nelson averages nearly eleven minutes of fight time and has shown to be durable. Nelson also will try to wrestle, so that should drag this fight into the deep waters. Therefore, I will create a small SGP on DraftKings and take over 1.5 rounds combined with the Padilla ML. His size, speed and, most importantly, his ability to grapple are why he gets it done. 

Bet: Fernando Padilla ML and over 1.5 rounds +125