Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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Well folks, after two straight weeks of very bad beats, we look to get back on track with this week’s MMA action. There’s nothing you can do about those last two fights; I would bet them again — Aleksander Rakic tore his ACL in a fight he was looking very good in, and Holly Holm got a decision win pulled from her by the judges. Bad beats, but we move on…
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
This is not really a main event I am exactly clambering over, but all in all it is not a bad fight. The matchup is black and white here and, and it really depends on what you believe will reign supreme — the long, rangy style of Volkov, or the walking-forward power of Rozenstruik.
You know in a lot of ways I see the main path for Rozenstruik is very similar to the path when Lewis beat Volkov. He is going to really need to hunt him down and dig deep for that one clean shot that puts Volkov on skates. Volkov on the flip side has advantages everywhere in this fight, but once again he had all the same advantages against Lewis, and we all know what happened there. In his defense, Volkov was beating him from pillar to post, got lazy and got caught very late in the final round.
The thing with Volkov is that he has hovered in top contention for a long time, but it seems once he has one hand on the peak and tries to pull himself over, he fails. He has been on a serious rotating door as of late with his last fight being a very bad look as he got submitted by Tom Aspinall. I know Aspinall is very good, but he is still fairly green, and you have to wonder if Volkov is declining ever so slightly. At only 33 years of age, he still has plenty of tread, but he is battle tested for quite some time with over 40 fights under his belt. He takes on a fellow striker, which on paper is a good matchup for him.
Rozenstruik is not short on striking pedigree, but I wouldn’t consider him the most active or exciting fighter on the roster. However, if he lands that one kill shot, the chances of you falling into his win column before the horn is much more likely than it is unlikely. Biggie Boy came out of the blocks hot, winning four straight, and since then, he too has been on a rotating door. Rotating wins and losses, it seems that he is still trying to gain some consistency in his game in order to stay afloat as a top gun in the division. There have been videos surfacing with Rozenstruik really trying to dial in his wrestling, and he even posted a video of it as well. People are really buying into that, which I find funny and interesting at the same time.
He’s a lifelong striker with over 85 kickboxing matches. The last thing this guy is going to resort to when push comes to shove is a pattern that he is not comfortable with unless he truly needs to. Given Volkov can in fact be taken down, he does hold a career 70% takedown defense, which is serviceable, especially against a guy who, if he does try and wrestle, will have lesser than average entries on the hips.
People really still haven’t translated that the training room is far different than real time. If I told you how many rock stars I have trained with in the training room who look like different fighters once it’s time to go, you would be shocked. Training is training. You are getting resistance to a point but it’s a far cry from when someone is actually fighting for their record, rankings, their jobs and prize money. I honestly don’t trust either side here but the length and volume of Volkov will give Rozenstruik fits if he can’t find his way into a comfortable range to return fire. I think he spends more time trying to dial and lay a bead on Volkov than he does spit actual offensive output. It’s a close fight, but I’m leaning with Volkov here by way of decision.
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The Pick
Volkov by way of decision
Vegas
Volkov/Rozen over 2.5 -190
Volkov -160
Both to win 1 Unit Each
