Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(Join TheMadLabMMA for just $24.99 and get breakdowns, weekly bets, full DFS analysis, the Labology DFS Podcast and access to the private Discord!)
Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2
Please forget that this is a rematch. That fight took place in 2016, and they are far different fighters than they were then. So get the rematch narrative out of your mind. This is a very intriguing matchup for a multitude of reasons. There is such a stark personality difference in their fighting styles. It is quite obvious that all paths and styles lead to the same endpoint, but getting to that endpoint for both men are completely different highways.
On one side. you have Vicente Luque, who can finish the fight any which way he chooses. With a 21-7 record, the heavy-handed BJJ black belt has 11 KO’s and 8 submissions to his credit. The 30-year-old fighter has flown under the radar way too long, and this main event spot can really put him into the position he belongs. With a four-fight win streak and victories in 9 of his last 10, Luque’s only blemish in that time was a decision loss to WonderBoy Thompson. It is hard to believe Luque is still overlooked by so many with the resume he has constructed. In his last four fights alone, He submitted Michael Chiesa and Turon Woodley by way of Darce Choke, knocked out Randy Brown, and also finished off Niko Price by way of Doctor Stoppage. If you go beyond that, who can forget about that war with BamBam and beyond? The main concern for me with Luque is his longevity. This is a guy who lives in chaos and although we as fans love that, it does not usually bode well for a fighter’s game with the test of time. So in my opinion, Luque needs to open that door to a title shot quicker than normal, because the wars will only take threads off the tires more and more. So before we lose vintage Luque, I would like to see him get much more attention if he wins this fight.
On the flip side, you have Belal Muhammad, who comes in with a 20-3 record along with one of the more solid and consistent games in the division. He will not wow you with anything on the lines of highlight reels like Luque, but he keeps one pace that is so steady stated, that he tends to lose fighters in translation late when they take their foot off the gas. With only 4 KO’s and 1 submission, Muhammad has 15 wins by way of decision. In his three losses, he has only been KO’d once. In a lot of ways, Muhammad never got the recognition he deserved, but unlike Luque, it was largely predicated on his fighting style. It just isn’t very fan friendly unless you truly appreciate the sport of MMA and understand what is trying to be accomplished from his standpoint. His hard work did pay off when he really couldn’t be denied anymore after an impressive four-fight win streak. He was offered a main event spot against Leon Edwards that would end like he never dreamed it would. An accidental eye poke would force the fight to be halted and the decision would ultimately be a no contest, marking it his first non-win since Geoff Neal in 2019. Muhammad was absolutely devastated, but to the defense of Edwards, Muhammad was getting chewed apart until that point. It was highly unlikely that he would have gone off to win that fight and his style is not the type that can change the complexity of the fight in one shot or by Hail Mary submission attempts. Belal needs reads, adjustments and pace. Against someone as seasoned as Edwards, the chances were slim he would figure out the riddle in time the way things were going.
Muhammad has gotten a little more shine than Luque despite Luque having the much more fan-friendly style, largely due to the fact that Muhammad has built quite the social media presence outside of the cage. However, that does not help him inside of it once the cage doors lock behind him. I see this fight really a little clearer than I probably should and that scares me a bit to be honest. Sometimes when I think I have a really good bead on a fight, I start feeling that it may be a little trappy. With that said, Luque is extremely high level on the ground, carries heavy heat in his hands and is extremely durable. I see Belal having issues keeping Luque at bay here. Luque is going to find out very quickly that Muhammad can’t hurt him. In turn I think Luque just goes in and gets what he wants, throwing a bit of caution to the wind as time starts to roll on. Now, no fighter wants to eat shots or take unnecessary damage, but it’s been a thing with Luque to this point, and having the confidence against a guy that carries really rare finishing ability, I can see him walking through a bit of fire here. My concern in this fight for Luque is the conditioning. Belal has very good cardio and if Luque chases a finish early, he can burn the candle at both ends, and that is where Luque tends to make up his ground and pass you by at the finish line. I think Luque gets this done, and I think the paths are much more plentiful for him in this spot.
(Join TheMadLabMMA for just $24.99 and get breakdowns, weekly bets, full DFS analysis, the Labology DFS Podcast and access to the private Discord!)
The Pick
Luque by way of Decision
Vegas
Luque -170
