NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
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Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
Holm breakdown
It seems that Holly Holm is largely put on the back burner when you talk about fighters competing brilliantly against the test of time. At 40 years of age, Holm has a body that women in their 20s would do anything for. Her athletic prowess and her desire to compete has not wavered all that much either. The thing with Holm is that she has always understood when she needed a break and when she was ready to fight. She listened to her body her entire career and it allowed her to avoid the pitfalls and landmines that come with such a brutal sport from a standpoint of body taxation.
Sure, she has her aches and pains like any other human, but for the most part, she really took care of her temple throughout her career. One of the most important things for her longevity is the year-round fitness program she adheres to. Holm never gets too off track with her weight and always stays on target year around.
People don’t understand how taxing it is to the body when you fluctuate so heavily. After a while it really starts to take a toll on your body and mind. With a record of 14-5, Holm shocked the world with her highlight-reel KO against Ronda Rousey winning the strap at UFC 193. She would soon lose the belt to Miesha Tate by RNC and then drop the next two to Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie. Since then, Holm has been on a revolving door of inconsistency, but the level of competition has been as murderer’s row as it gets.
After Amanda Nunes gave her a dose of what made her a household name, she has now bounced back, stringing together two straight wins against Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana. Holm, despite her age, is still fighting at a very high level, and a big reason for that is her boxing pedigree. Many people can’t digest why boxing is called the sweet science. Sure, there are many people in MMA who can box, but can they really? Or do they just understand the fundamentals of combinations and basic fluid movements? There is a stark difference between that and truly understanding the philosophy behind the craft of boxing that so many people look down upon, due to a lack of knowledge.
Holm is one of the best pure-blooded boxers in MMA period — man or woman. She had 16 title defenses and held belts in 3 different weight classes. She gained fighter of the year honors numerous times by outlets like WBF and Ring Magazine. She is in the International Women’s Boxing Hall of Fame, New Mexico Sports Hall of Fame, and most recently, the International Boxing Hall of Fame. When you are at the level of boxing, you understand how to dismantle puzzles with footwork and solve word problems with combinations.
Is this me being biased to boxing due to my background? No. This is me understanding how dismantling boxing is when you are that level of understanding. Now if you add a good kicking attack, which she has, athletic ability, and somewhat serviceable ground game to stay safe, you have a problem on your hands.
Is Holm as fast and as sharp as she was a few years back? Of course not. She is human, and at 40 you are going to slow down. The genetic code is extremely gift worthy to some, but it also knows when it’s time to slow down a bit. However, Holm doesn’t seem ready just yet to give into Father Time. She takes on Ketlen Vieira, who is a decade younger and obviously gunning for everything that Holly once had.
Vieira breakdown
The black belt in BJJ has an overall record of 12-2 and came into the UFC with a very hot start. After beating Ashlee Evans Smith, Sara McMann and Cat Zingano, she ran into a pure Mexican boxer in Irene Aldana who would hand her that first loss. She then came back and beat Sijura Eubanks before dropping a second fight to another striker in Yana Kunitskaya.
Vieira is a very good bull. Large for the division, a very strong and powerful combatant with very good ground skills, She does her best work when the water is flowing in her direction of choice. However, the fighters who have given her that resistance and showed her that she needs to be more than a bull have given her issues. However, she also lost to two fighters who had very polished striking games, especially Irene Aldana.
The biggest takeaway from the Aldana fight was her frustration in Round 1. It was driving her to anger, in turn Aldana was able to use much more sound striking to touch her up. In turn, the bully does what the bully will do. They will use every last-ditch effort to load up and look to land big shots. However, she got sloppy, got caught and got KO’d by the much better boxer.
Now the question here is, is that repairable? Absolutely it is. However, it is easier said than done. Emotions play a very big part in this game, and if Vieira doesn’t get what she wants from Holm, she may get sloppy again, but I promise you that if she gets sloppy against Holm, it will not be pretty.
Fight analysis
Aldana’s boxing is one thing. Holly Holm’s level of boxing is an entirely different animal when it comes to understanding angle manipulations, setting traps, and moving Vieira to step on them with the right amounts of pressure. Vieira wins this fight if she has the success to get in on the hips of Holm. Even though Holm is serviceable on the ground, Vieira will hold the ace of spades there. However, if she has problems getting it there, and she gets sloppy with her shots, she will not outclass Holly Holm on the feet and things can go south for her quickly.
I respect Vieira. I think she’s a fine fighter with some good upside. I just don’t think this is a spot that she wins. If this was a three-round fight, I would consider it a bit more, but in a five-round fight against a master marksman on the feet and hitting Round 5 in six of her 18 fights, that is experience you don’t get in the gym. You learn a lot about your limits when you hit those championship rounds, and the more you are in them, the more you can decipher and adjust to how much output you can or can’t expand as the fight grows tired.
Vieira had her first five-round fight in her last outing, and even though she won, she doesn’t know her limits as well as Holm and I think that is going to play a major role here. Pace and experience. Even at 40 years of age, I believe this is her fight to win or lose.
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The Pick
Holly Holm by way of Decision
Vegas
The line is a little too juiced for my liking. -250 is a hard pass for me on a straight bet even though I am picking Holm to win. I would feel safer adding her as a Parlay piece at best, but not a fight I am looking to have action on.
