FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
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Jessica Andrade vs. Amanda Lemos
When you look at this fight, you need to actually throw name value into this equation, because it tells a very large tale from a separation standpoint, with two fighters who seem to be very evenly matched. Now when I say “name value,” I mean level of opposition. Both of these ladies have had success in the UFC, and both have looked very good while the waves flowed in their direction. That said, there is something to be said about beating a smokey pool hall of drunk pool players opposed to beating the Minnesota Fats and the Fast Eddie Parkers of the world. While Lemos was beating some good fighters, Andrade has been competing against some of the most elite in the division for a few years now and has really only lost to the best of the best. Let’s take a deeper look.
Lemos breakdown
Amanda Lemos comes in with a record of 11-1-1. She is on quite the tear with a five-fight win streak, so it would be foolish to say she doesn’t deserve this spot. On the other hand, outside of her last win against Angela Hill, her resume isn’t one to blow you away. With seven wins by KO and two by way of submission, Lemos is surely a finisher. In her single loss, Lemos was KO’d by Leslie Smith back in 2017.
The odd thing about this matchup is that Andrade seems like such a mainstay here in the UFC that you would swear that Andrade was the older fighter, but that isn’t the case here — Lemos is actually older than Andrade. At 34, Lemos is 4 years older than he 30-year-old Andrade. The 5-foot-4 southpaw fighter with a 65-inch reach will hold a 3-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage over the smaller, stockier Andrade. Even though Lemos will look for the takedowns when available, her striking is where her bread is buttered, and with almost a 90% takedown defense, she does a fine job keeping it there for the most part.
Lemos is a clean and patient striker — you will see her take the center of the octagon immediately in spots and mirror her way into range where she will lean slightly off the center line almost like she is peeking into a doorway. Once she finds something she likes, she will fire off a few stiff jabs, let her hands go, and bounce right back out of the pocket to reset, and it’s back to the peek-a-boo game. Once Lemos sees you rocked, she will move in hard and if she sits you down, she is even calculated with her ground and pound. She really does a fine job with utilizing energy expenditure without wasting too many movements. Her calculated and cautious style will be a benefit to her when she is fighting someone like Andrade who will meet her for the hunt and look for Lemos to engage in a fire fight.
Andrade breakdown
Jessica Andrade is like a pit bull of sorts. Despite a 22-9 record, she really is much better than her record indicates. With a very sporadic resume, I lean that on the level of opposition that she has faced. Since 2017, outside of a few fighters, Andrade has just fought straight assassins. While Angela Hill is arguably one of the best fighters on Lemos’ resume, Andrade has faced this list in order: Joanna, Gadelha, Torres, Karolina, Thug Rose, Zhang, Thug Rose, Chook, Valentina, Calvillo. If that isn’t a murderers’ row, I really don’t know what is. Yes, she has lost some and won some, but the level of opposition for this 30-year-old terror has been rough to say the very least.
With 9 KO’s and 7 submissions, the black belt in BJJ can get it done anywhere. Andrade has been known to get into some wars that are not needed, but she will also muscle her way into your air space to capture your hips and take you for a ride if you aren’t careful. My concern in this spot is not her skill set, nor is it her ability to win the fight. My concern is her chin. She has been KO’d four times, and Lemos can put an X on that chin if Andrade doesn’t play her cards perfectly. Also, her thirst for fire fights can be her greatest asset and biggest thorn in her side depending on who she is facing.
She will be at a clear size disadvantage here — it seems that Andrade is trying to find her perfect home weight-wise. It seems like her return to strawweight will be her most comfortable home, and it’s good to see her believing this, but now she needs to prove it. Andrade has a good ability like Lemos to take the center of the cage and stalk. However, unlike Lemos, she hunts in a different pattern set. She will move in more bullish just looking to land big shots until your hips open up where she can change levels and take you for a ride. The one good thing about her being the lower center of gravity fighter is that the level change doesn’t have to be so drastic, because the hips are a little more in clear path. With that said, she is going to need to get by the stiff jab and composed striking of Lemos to do so.
Fight analysis
This is not a fight I am really excited about to be honest, but this is a spot that historically Andrade wins. Lemos is good, but I don’t consider her much of a killer just yet. There is really nothing she can throw at Andrade that she hasn’t already experienced. Sure, Lemos can keep her at the end of her jab and really work the in-and-out movement, and Andrade can start to get frustrated and take panic shots, but I just don’t see this as a spot that Andrade is going to give Lemos the time to be so patient. She is going to make Lemos abandon some of her game plan like Joe Frazier would make slick boxers abandon theirs. That is what made Frazier so great. Guys like him and Marvin Hagler were not the greatest technical fighters, but that made you fight them. They didn’t give you a choice, and that is what Andrade does. Even though I am not excited for this main event as much as many others, it is still a fight that has the potential to deliver in a big way.
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The Pick
Andrade by decision
Wager
Andrade, -170
