MMA DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 51 Saturday (4/16)

UFC Fight Night is set for Saturday evening with UFC Vegas 51. I’m here to break down the top DFS options for the slate. This main card features a rematch of Belal Muhammad and Vicente Luque from a match six years ago in 2016. Since then, the evolution of both fighters has made this rematch quite exciting, as both sit in the top 10 in their class rankings, and both are riding impressive win streaks.

I do not see this match having an effect on a GPP-winning lineup. Neither fighter is a notoriously high scorer, and Muhammad in particular has not been a finisher in his career. He would be a hedge play in max-entry GPP contests in case he pulls off the upset win. Luque has a much better opportunity to finish opponents, but Vegas expects this match to come to a decision. I do not foresee triple-digit scores from either fighter here, and I believe there are better options on the undercard.

The co-main event is Caio Borralho and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, who both climbed the ranks through the contenders series. This bout has been a heavily bet match, with lots of money coming in on Borralho and pushing him to almost even money. After fighting at 205, the drop back to 185 should favor Borralho in what is favored to be settled inside of the distance. If this is a stand-up striking match, Borralho is a big favorite in my opinion with a huge score likely. However, if this match hits the mat a lot, then Gadzhi will likely come out on top. In multi-entry contests, I am likely playing both sides. In single-entry or cash games then I take the salary discount with Borralho.

The only match that Vegas is extremely confident will end in stoppage (-450 on DK at time of writing) is Martin Buday’s debut match vs. Chris Barnett. Buday is in the top five highest salaries but will be a very chalky play as a betting favorite in a match with a high stoppage probability. I expect that he will be dominant in this match and should be played in all cash and single-entry GPP lineups.

Miguel Baeza facing off against Andre Fialho is one of the matches I am really looking at for fantasy purposes. Baeza is better in all facets of this matchup in my opinion. He has never let his matches come down to the judges, as he has finished prior to the distance in every win. If that continues, he will be in the GPP-winning lineup.

Trey Ogden vs. Jordan Leavitt is another match that I would consider having exposure to if utilizing a multi-entry approach in GPP contests. Both look for finishes quite a bit and can rack up points with high ceilings. If playing cash or single-entry (or even three-max) contests, I like taking the Leavitt approach. The submission aspect of his repertoire gives him an advantage against an opponent with multiple submission losses. Leavitt comes at a $400 discount and in a match that I see ending in a stoppage, scores can add up for the winner at a reasonable price.

Finally, in the match featuring Devin Clark against William Knight, I am leaning with the underdog and the lower rostership of Knight. Clark is at a big weight disadvantage in this one and Knight seems to be more in his element than he is fighting as a light heavyweight. The value lies mostly with Knight as he has more stoppage power than Clark. There is a much higher ceiling for a $1,000 savings for Knight. This is more of a true GPP pick than a safe pick for cash lineups.