Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 259 in Las Vegas. This is arguably the best fight card in UFC history from top to bottom with three title fights on the line along with a full 15-fight card. Fingers crossed that it all stays together and we do not lose any fights come Saturday.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
$9.1K Mario Bautista vs. $7.1K Trevin Jones
Bautista, -225; Jones, +185
Bautista is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Miles Johns in February of last year. His only professional loss has come against Cory Sandhagen in his UFC debut, which is obviously an respectable loss in which he showed heart before being submitted. Bautista is generally underrated as he was a sizable underdog in all of his UFC matchups and is now on a two-fight win streak. He is a very active striker on the feet, as he lands over six significant strikes per minute and loves to stand and trade in the pocket as he has never been knocked out and trust his chin enough to take chances. Jones is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Timur Valiev in his UFC debut on short notice in August, which was later deemed a no contest due to a marijuana suspension. Jones did get the win at the time, but he was getting pieced up by Valiev until Valiev seemed to gas after the first round. Jones is not typically a knockout fighter; that was just his second professional knockout. He is not someone I feel confident backing in any matchup and should be at a striking disadvantage on the feet in terms of volume and technique. However, he does hold a black belt under Robert Drysdale and should have a grappling edge if this fight hits the mat, but I consider a Jones submission to be a very low probability in this matchup. I expect Bautista to piece him up on the feet and cruise to a victory. Bautista by decision is the official pick but he is expensive on DraftKings and will need a finish to pay off his salary.
$8.9K Uros Medic vs. $7.3K Aalon Cruz
Medic, -170; Cruz, +150
Medic is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series when he won by first-round knockout in August. He is just 6-0 professionally with five of his six wins coming by finish inside the first round. Medic is an aggressive striker that has legitimate power, but I see some red flags with him as well. For starters, he fights out of Alaska, and the competition on the Alaskan regional scene is a disaster. He fought just one guy with a winning record and that record was only due to him fighting all 0-0 fighters. Additionally, he winds up and puts everything into his kicks and leaves himself overextended and open to counters. Lastly, we have never seen him outside of the first round, so his cardio is a major question, especially when he is throwing so much into every strike. I am certainly under the market in terms of Medic, and even if he finishes Cruz early, he is a fade moving forward. Cruz is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Spike Carlyle in February of last year. Carlyle is built like a brick house and landed some huge shots that took Cruz out of the fight early so I am not putting a ton of weight into that. As we saw when Cruz fought on Contender Series, he is able to go the full 15 minutes and will throw a ton of volume especially with the leg kicks. He will also have a seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup. Because Cruz has fought the tougher competition and is more proven, should have a cardio advantage to go along with his reach advantage as well, I am backing the underdog in this matchup. Cruz by decision is the official pick but he has upside to finish as well if Medic gasses out.
$8.5K Kai Kara-France vs. $7.7K Rogerio Bontorin
Kara-France, -140; Bontorin, +120
Kara-France is coming off a second-round submission loss to Brandon Royval in September. He is an active striker with good boxing skills and strong takedown defense. He is typically overrated by the market but after his last loss that seems to have corrected. He should have a significant speed and striking advantage over Bontorin in this matchup. Bontorin is coming off a decision loss last February where he was taken down 10 times and landed nothing the entire fight. He does have some explosive burst on the feet but is typically being out landed by his opponents. Additionally, he holds a black belt in BJJ but does not aggressively wrestle, and Kara-France has excellent takedown defense. I expect Kara-France to keep the fight standing and win the fight on the feet over 15 minutes. Kara-France by decision is the official pick.
$9.3K Sean Brady vs. $6.9K Jake Matthews
Brady, -210; Matthews, +175
Brady is coming off a dominant performance where he won by second-round submission over Christian Aguilera in August. He is 3-0 in the UFC and 13-0 as a professional. He is a prospect that I am very high on as he is extremely well rounded. He is an active striker with good technical boxing and mixes in his wrestling well. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a black belt in BJJ under Daniel Gracie. His opponent Matthews is coming off a decision victory over Diego Sanchez in September. He is currently on a three-fight win streak but will be tested much more than he was during that span. Matthews fights similar to Brady in that he is decent on the feet but likes to mix in the wrestling and grappling as well as he holds a black belt too. However, Brady is the better version of Matthews in every area to go along with having better cardio as well. I do not like the price on DraftKings, but I do think Brady wins despite being a bigger favorite than he should. He needs to finish or turn this into a wrestling match to pay off his price. Brady by decision is the official pick.
$9K Carlos Ulberg vs. $7.2K Kennedy Nzechukwu
Ulberg, -225; Nzechukwu, +185
Ulberg is coming off a first-round knockout over Bruno Oliveira on Dana White’s Contender Series in November. He is just 3-0 professionally and making his UFC debut but he trains out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand. He seems to have legitimate power on the feet and a technical kickboxing approach which could be all he needs in this matchup despite the lack of experience. Nzechukwu is coming off a decision victory over Darko Stosic in August of 2019. He honestly would have lost that fight, but he took many illegal groin strikes that resulted in point deduction for Stosic. Nzechukwu is massive for this division and will hold a sizable length advantage over most of his opponents but he is still green and has not fully figured out how to use that advantage. Additionally, Ulberg should have a massive speed advantage and I think he is more capable of finishing the fight as well. It is possible we see some improvements from Nzechukwu after the sizable layoff, but he is not someone that I am looking to back even against the inexperienced Ulberg. Ulberg by knockout is the official pick.
$8.2K Tim Elliott vs. $8K Jordan Espinosa
Espinosa, -125; Elliott, +105
Elliott is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Ryan Benoit last July that snapped a three-fight losing streak. Elliott is a wrestler by nature and a slick submission grappler with six of his 16 wins coming by submission. He has improved his striking since working with James Krause, but the biggest concern is his chin as he seemingly always gets rocked. His opponent Espinosa is coming off a decision loss to David Dvorak his last time out in September. Espinosa is not someone that I am looking to back in almost any matchup and am lower on him than the general public. He also has a wrestling background and has strong takedown defense. On the feet, he relies heavily on his athleticism and quickness as he dances in and out of range mostly landing leg kicks. If he can defend the takedown attempts, then he may be able to edge out a boring decision on the feet. I tend to side with Elliott as the better wrestler and he may only need one takedown as he is a much better submission grappler and Espinosa has been submitted four times. Elliott has much more upside on DraftKings as well because if he wins then it likely comes from wrestling and grappling along with the potential for a finish. Elliott by decision is the official pick.
$8.7K Amanda Lemos vs. $7.5K Livinha Souza
Lemos, -225; Souza, +185
Lemos is coming off a decision victory over Mizuki Inoue in August. She is 8-1-1 professionally and is currently on a two-fight win streak. She is going to have a power advantage on the feet, and she throws much more volume than Souza, who is coming off a decision win over Ashley Yoder in August. She is well-rounded but very low output, so she typically finds herself in close decisions. She is a good submission grappler and holds a black belt in BJJ and lands over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. She will likely need to use that that game plan to win this fight as Lemos throws much more volume and has more power. Lemos has never been taken down but has not faced any competent wrestlers in her UFC career so this matchup should test her takedown defense. I favor Lemos to get the nod as the more active striker with solid takedown defense, but this is not a fight that I am super confident in and on a 15-fight card it will not be a big target for me. Lemos by decision is the official pick.
$8.3K Askar Askarov vs. $7.9K Joseph Benavidez
Askarov, -120; Benavidez, +100
Askarov is coming off a decision victory over Alexandre Pantoja last July. He is currently 12-0-1 with the only blemish on his record being a draw against Brandon Moreno, who is a solidified top three fighter in the flyweight division. He is very well-rounded as he has solid striking, good wrestling and excellent defensive grappling. The problem that I have with Askarov is that while he is very well-rounded, his output is limited at times which causes him to be put in very close decision fights that could swing either way. Benavidez is coming off back-to-back losses to the Flyweight king, Deiveson Figueiredo. Benavidez is also well-rounded as he has good wrestling and striking despite the two brutal losses to Figueiredo. Benavidez should have an advantage with the leg kicks and power on the feet, but I believe Askarov is more likely to land takedowns and get the better of the scrambles on the mat. The damage that Benavidez has taken lately is certainly concerning but I am not counting him out completely as he is still a talented fighter and Askarov always finds himself in close fights. This is not a fight that I want to plant my flag on as I expect it to be very competitive but lean Askarov in a close decision. I prefer Benavidez on DraftKings for the $400 savings in price and the higher upside in a win.
$8.8K Song Yadong vs. $7.4K Kyler Phillips
Yadong, -135; Phillips, +115
Yadong is coming off a controversial decision victory over Marlon Vera last May in a fight that many people thought he lost. He is an impressive striker with good boxing and heavy hands, with six of his 16 wins coming by knockout. He does not have great takedown defense at 61% but is usually very good at scrambling back to his feet outside of facing elite wrestlers. His opponent Phillips is an impressive 8-1 prospect who is currently on a three-fight win streak. Phillips is a brown belt under Carlson Gracie and is a good submission grappler. However, he has done most of his damage with his powerful striking as five of his eight wins have come by knockout. Phillips is dangerous in the sense that he is comfortable wherever the fight goes as he has a diverse striking attack with kicks and elbows and not just pure boxing. On the mat, he has good top control and lands some vicious ground and pound, so he is not looking to force submissions. I am high on Phillips as a prospect, but this is a big step up in competition for him against a proven prospect in Yadong, who is very durable. Phillips likes to throw a ton of calf kicks that leave him open to counters and Yadong has the power to put his lights out. I see this being another competitive fight but am fairly confident Yadong has the bigger moments and more potential to finish. Yadong by decision is the official pick. He is clearly overpriced on DraftKings due to the line movement in favor of Phillips, so he makes for a leverage play with the potential to finish. Phillips is still a good underdog to target based on odds value and his path to victory likely includes wrestling and grappling.
$8.1K Casey Kenney vs. $8.1K Dominick Cruz
Kenney, -130; Cruz, +110
Kenney is coming off a decision victory over Nathaniel Wood in October and is now on a three-fight win streak. Kenney’s only UFC loss came against Merab Dvalishvili in February of last year; he is an exciting prospect with a well-rounded skillset. He holds a black belt in Judo and has good defensive grappling and excellent scrambles. On the feet, he stays active with his hands and mixes in leg kicks at a high rate as he lands just under five significant strikes per minute. His opponent Cruz is coming off a controversial second-round knockout loss to Henry Cejudo in May after a four-year layoff. Full disclosure, I thought the stoppage was completely fine as Cruz ate a massive knee and took 10 strikes to the head without defending. Regardless, Cruz is a legit in the sport, and in his prime he is clearly levels better than Kenney in any area. The question then becomes how much of a dropoff is Cruz from his prime? At 35 years old, Cruz best days are clearly behind him, but I am not ready to say he has fallen off a cliff or that he is even close to washed at this point. Watching the Cejudo fight, you can tell ring rust was evident early on but in the second round he really started to find his range and look a lot more comfortable prior to being knocked out. I expect this fight to play out mostly on the feet with Cruz using his signature footwork and feints to outclass Kenney, who just wants to slug it out and trade shots. Additionally, if the fight does go to the ground then I expect Cruz to be the one to take it there as Kenney has been relying on his hands much more than his wrestling of late. This is a big step up in competition for Kenney and one I do not think he is ready for just yet. Cruz by decision is the official pick but unless he forces a ton of wrestling then I expect him not to score well on DraftKings due to the low striking output and heavy movement.
$8.6K Aleksandar Rakic vs. $7.6K Thiago Santos
Rakic, -155; Santos, +135
Rakic is coming off a decision win over Anthony Smith in August. He is 13-2 professionally with his only UFC loss being a split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. He is an athletic specimen with big powerful kicks and nine of his 13 wins have come by knockout. He will hold a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup against Santos. Santos is coming off a submission loss to Glover Teixeira in November and is now on a two-fight losing streak. Santos has arguably just as much power on the feet as he has finished 15 of his 21 professional wins by knockout. On the feet, either fighter is live for a knockout due to their obvious power. However, I lean Rakic as he should be more active with the kicks. Additionally, Rakic should have a big wrestling edge in this matchup as well although I am not convinced he forces the wrestling exchanges. This is a strong fight to target on DraftKings as we are expecting a finish so I will have both sides with a moderate lean to Rakic. Rakic by knockout is the official pick.
$9.4K Islam Makhachev vs. $6.8K Drew Dober
Makhachev, -335; Dober, +275
Makhachev is coming off an 18-month layoff after winning a decision over Davi Ramos in September of 2019 in dominant fashion. He is currently on a six-fight win streak and many people have him pegged as a future champion in this division. He is a well-rounded prospect with technical striking and good wrestling to along with a solid ground game. Dober is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Alexander Hernandez last May. He is now on a three-fight win streak with all three wins coming by knockout. Dober has improved by leaps and bounds since entering the UFC in 2013. I would consider him one of the best boxers in this division and he carries power with his technique. The leak in Dober’s game has always been that he is a fish out of water on the mat and his last three losses have all come by submission. That could be a big factor here as Makhachev likes to mix in the takedowns and averages 3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes. Makhachev is also good at limiting damage on the feet as he has excellent striking defense so Dober will have less of an opportunity to land that big shot. Dober is very cheap on DraftKings and always live for a knockout but I favor Makhachev to land takedowns and control him on the mat and possibly even find a finish. Makhachev by submission is the official pick but I will have both sides on DraftKings.
$8.4K Petr Yan vs. $7.8K Aljamain Sterling
Yan, -110; Sterling, -110
Yan is coming off a fifth-round knockout victory over Jose Aldo for the bantamweight title in July of last year. He is undefeated in the UFC and currently on a 10-fight win streak. It is easy to see why people are very high on Petr Yan as he is very well-rounded. However, I am a bit lower on him than the market only in the sense that I do not believe he is the best Bantamweight fighter. I have him below Cory Sandhagen and his current challenger, Sterling. Sterling is coming off a first-round submission over Sandhagen and is on a five-fight win streak himself. He has always been known as a good wrestler and a dangerous submission grappler as he holds a black belt in BJJ and eight of his 19 wins have come by submission. However, he has improved his striking to the point where now he is a legitimate problem for any matchup. He is very long and good at maintaining distance which allows him to use his length offensively but also limits damage coming back at him because he is typically out of his opponent’s range. He also has very good footwork and head movement which should all be key factors in this specific matchup against Yan. Sterling is the prototypical fighter for the skills you need to beat Yan in that he is going to have a four-inch reach advantage and I expect him to use that advantage and spam kicks to beat up the legs of Yan while at distance. Yan will also have to worry nonstop about preventing takedowns which Sterling will feint to open up his striking. Yan has shown strong takedown defense in the UFC at 88% and I think he could stuff the majority of Sterling’s takedowns. But I also think that Sterling could just need one takedown as he is very good at taking the back and finding a submission. I also think that Sterling can win this fight on the feet which some people may disagree with, but Yan really only has a power advantage in the striking. With Sterling’s unorthodox movement and length, it is hard to see how Yan is going to be winning rounds on the feet outside of big moments. Ultimately, I see Sterling limiting the damage and landing more volume of his own. He will beat up the legs of Yan, mix in some wrestling and do enough to clearly win rounds in this matchup. At $600 cheaper and the massive odds value, Sterling is one of the best plays of the entire slate on DraftKings. Sterling by decision is the official pick.
$9.6K Amanda Nunes vs. $6.6K Megan Anderson
Nunes, -1050; Anderson, +675
What can I really say about Nunes? She is arguably the greatest woman fighter in UFC history. She is currently on an 11-fight win streak with her last eight fights being title fights. She is a powerful striker with 13 of her 20 professional wins coming by knockout. However, it has been her dominance on the ground that has shined as of late, with 14 takedowns over her last two fights. She averages over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a black belt in BJJ. Her opponent Anderson is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Norma Dumont in February of last year and is currently on a two-fight winning streak. Anderson is massive for this division as she stands at six feet tall and will hold a three-inch reach advantage over Nunes. On the feet, Anderson carries a ton of power in her legs, and Nunes will need to avoid the powerful head kicks that Anderson is known for. The concerns with Anderson is that this is a massive step up in competition from her last two fights and she is very low output so she has to have those big moments and likely needs to finish. Nunes is not indestructible though, as we have seen her gas out multiple times and been rocked in recent fights as well. Nunes has a good fight IQ though and if she is in danger on the feet then she will go to her wrestling and ground game and that is where I see her dominating this fight as Anderson only defends takedowns at 53%. I won’t be fading Anderson completely on DraftKings because she is a powerful striker and will give you big leverage against the field, but I’m expecting Nunes to defend the belt once again and she is a high floor and high upside play this week. Nunes by submission is the official pick.
$9.2K Israel Adesanya vs. $7K Jan Blachowicz
Adesanya, -230; Blachowicz, +190
Adesanya is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Paulo Costa in a title defense in September. He is 20-0 professionally with 15 of those wins coming by knockout. Adesanya is arguably the most technical striker that the UFC has ever seen, and it is difficult to see him losing in almost any matchup outside of a lucky knockout or an elite wrestler that is able to control him. It will be interesting to see if the move up to Light Heavyweight will affect his quickness at all or if the size difference will be a factor despite Adesanya saying he may weight the same as he does for a Middleweight bout. His opponent Blachowicz is coming off an impressive second-round knockout victory over Dominick Reyes for the light heavyweight crown. Blachowicz was never someone that I thought could get to championship level. It’s not that he is bad in any area, but I would not consider him elite either. He is currently on a four-fight win streak and has won eight of his last nine bouts. He has legitimate power in his hands but will need to have those big moments in order to beat someone like Adesanya. Because Adesanya is so good at avoiding damage and is able to fight so sharp at range, it is tough to see him losing this matchup. Blachowicz could have a wrestling advantage but Adesanya’s takedown defense is 86% and has only been taken down once over his last six fights. I expect Adesanya to stuff any takedown attempts and beat up Blachowicz legs before going for the knockout shot. Adesanya becomes a double champ this weekend and remains unbeaten. Adesanya by knockout is the official pick.
